Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.41
MA(20): $3.43
MACD: -0.0538
Signal: -0.0424
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 44.51
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,945
Avg (20d): 150,435
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 23.58
%D: 34.77
ADX: 15.47
+DI: 21.49
-DI: 24.61
Value: -76.42
Upper: 3.83
Middle: 3.43
Lower: 3.03
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.1 | 105.7 | 99.1 | 98.33 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Total Supply | 111.8 | 110.4 | 104.5 | 103.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 21.63 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.1 | 30.2 | 31.6 | 31.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 11.0 |
| LNG Exports | 15.6 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.2 | 94.4 | 94.5 | 90.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 13.6 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 13.03 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.653 EUR/MWh (-0.013). JKM prices decreased to 12.480 USD/MMBtu (-0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.827 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-22
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-22
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-22
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.653 |
| JUL 25 | 12.232 |
| AUG 25 | 12.294 |
| SEP 25 | 12.450 |
| OCT 25 | 12.565 |
| NOV 25 | 12.758 |
| DEC 25 | 12.859 |
| JAN 26 | 12.895 |
| FEB 26 | 12.901 |
| MAR 26 | 12.730 |
| APR 26 | 11.803 |
| MAY 26 | 11.513 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.480 |
| AUG 25 | 12.575 |
| SEP 25 | 12.630 |
| OCT 25 | 12.665 |
| NOV 25 | 12.835 |
| DEC 25 | 13.135 |
| JAN 26 | 13.270 |
| FEB 26 | 13.255 |
| MAR 26 | 12.870 |
| APR 26 | 11.990 |
| MAY 26 | 11.775 |
| JUN 26 | 11.755 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-23 | $3.28 | $3.0 | $3.56 |
| 2025-05-24 | $3.3 | $3.02 | $3.58 |
| 2025-05-25 | $3.26 | $2.98 | $3.54 |
| 2025-05-26 | $3.27 | $2.99 | $3.55 |
| 2025-05-27 | $3.28 | $3.0 | $3.56 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.86, with resistance at 3.34. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the ML price forecast indicating a slight uptick of 0.71%, suggesting a range between 3.0 and 3.56. This could present short-term trading opportunities but also highlights risks in a bearish environment.
The fundamental balance is currently at 13.60 BCFD, with a significant decrease of -2.40. This indicates a need for careful production planning. The market sentiment remains neutral, but with a bearish technical score, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The geopolitical landscape may also influence operational decisions, especially with negative sentiment surrounding crude oil due to escalating tensions.
With low heating demand expected and moderate cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance shows a decrease, which could indicate tighter supplies in the near term. Additionally, the market sentiment remains neutral, urging consumers to consider hedging strategies to lock in current rates amidst potential volatility in pricing.
The current market picture is characterized by a bearish technical outlook alongside a neutral market sentiment. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply situation, which could shift market dynamics. Key driving factors include the cooling demand across various regions and geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil prices. Analysts should monitor these elements closely as they could indicate potential shifts in market outlook.