Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but after December 5th - we are seeing the HDDs dropping….that is not a good sign for bulls. The technical move to $5 is astounding - I expected $5 back in October - but felt this move was WAAAYYY too premature - I want to see the fundamental support - and right now we are more “average” while a move from $4 to $4.90 is not average - the two things can not coexist. At this point, I am halfway expecting a sharp reversal during December - and this will thrust us back down in a big BIG way - like $1-1.50. That said - if the forecasts live up to expectations - we will need to see significant follow through to really see any more upside. This week has been a battle and needless to say it has looked to be at the hands of the bulls for the most part (though the bears had some times that looked like they were going to take control). Let’s be real - the next 4 weeks are cold and really solid cold likely to take 100+ BCF more than the 5 year average, but we are currently 150+ BCF over the 5 year average so is it $5 bullish (the highest prices we have seen since the 2022 spike)? If weather continues to come in cold in late Dec / early Jan - we could see follow through to $6 but we may be sizing up for a big correction down.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-04 16:46
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have surged to a three-year high, driven by recent cold weather in the U.S. and declining stock levels. While forecasts remain bullish, concerns loom as heating degree days (HDDs) are expected to drop post-December 5, suggesting potential bearish pressure. Current prices hovering around $5 may be unsustainable without solid fundamental backing, setting the stage for possible corrections. Traders should watch for weather patterns and stock levels, as a reversal could lead to significant price drops in early 2025.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 25.83 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 34.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$5.09
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.58
MA(20): $4.38
Current Price is 5.09, 9 day MA 4.58, 20 day MA 4.38
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3144
Signal: 0.3038
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 75.0
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 75.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 184,959
Avg (20d): 169,283
Ratio: 1.09
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 99.44
%D: 83.34
Stochastic %K: 99.44, %D: 83.34. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 44.5
+DI: 40.53
-DI: 8.67
ADX: 44.5 (+DI: 40.53, -DI: 8.67). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -0.56
Williams %R: -0.56 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 5.02
Middle: 4.38
Lower: 3.74
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 5.02, Middle: 4.38, Lower: 3.74
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.5 | 103.0 | 103.23 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Total Supply | 115.5 | 114.8 | 109.7 | 109.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.9 | 20.1 | 25.9 | 25.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 39.6 | 32.4 | 36.3 | 32.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 50.1 | 37.0 | 45.2 | 39.2 |
| LNG Exports | 18.7 | 19.0 | 14.5 | 13.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 149.53 | 123.7 | 135.9 | 124.0 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -34.03 | -8.9 | -26.2 | -14.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (ABOVE normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
188.0 HDD
+25.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
215.0 HDD
+23.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
0.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/01 | 31.0 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04 | 34.0 | 26.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 29.0 | 27.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/07 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/08 | 33.0 | 28.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/09 | 30.0 | 28.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/10 | 25.0 | 28.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.07
Daily:
0.22 (0.22%)
Weekly:
-0.39 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.11
Daily:
0.05 (1.26%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.27%)
SP500
6857.12
Daily:
7.4 (0.11%)
Weekly:
8.03 (0.12%)
VIX
15.78
Daily:
-0.3 (-1.87%)
Weekly:
-0.57 (-3.49%)
GOLD
4239.1
Daily:
147.2 (3.6%)
Weekly:
161.4 (3.96%)
COPPER
5.28
Daily:
0.32 (6.4%)
Weekly:
0.27 (5.42%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,682,048
Change: +7,879
Managed Money
-45,917
Change: +29,422
-2.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
2,134
Change: +5,287
0.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
149,713
Change: +4,029
8.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-112,862
Change: -36,088
-6.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,997,649
Change: -68,941
Managed Money
-38,154
Change: -19,388
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
309,536
Change: +14,091
15.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-364,592
Change: +12,233
-18.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 9.649 EUR/MWh (+0.086). JKM prices decreased to 10.985 USD/MMBtu (-0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.336 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
9.649
+0.086Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-04
JKM Prices
10.985
-0.015Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-04
JKM-TTF Spread
1.336
13.85%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.6
10.1
9.6
9.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 9.649 |
| FEB 26 | 9.695 |
| MAR 26 | 9.622 |
| APR 26 | 9.384 |
| MAY 26 | 9.294 |
| JUN 26 | 9.312 |
| JUL 26 | 9.338 |
| AUG 26 | 9.384 |
| SEP 26 | 9.483 |
| OCT 26 | 9.550 |
| NOV 26 | 9.717 |
| DEC 26 | 9.825 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 10.985 |
| FEB 26 | 10.380 |
| MAR 26 | 9.855 |
| APR 26 | 9.410 |
| MAY 26 | 9.340 |
| JUN 26 | 9.455 |
| JUL 26 | 9.635 |
| AUG 26 | 9.765 |
| SEP 26 | 9.750 |
| OCT 26 | 9.810 |
| NOV 26 | 9.830 |
| DEC 26 | 10.165 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.117
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
85
Last Updated:
2025-12-04 16:45:36
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
-0.3
Top News Topics
Supply (9 articles)
- Higher Indian Sugar Production Weighs on Prices Barchart
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Supply Chain Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Larger Brazilian Sugar Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Decision to Assess Maximum Output Capacity Could Spark Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Climbs 2% on OPEC+ Steady Output Plan, Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Change Long-Term Outlook for Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Crude Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$5.09
Closest Support:
$4.59
9.82% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$5.09
0.0% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.32
0.382
$3.66
0.5
$3.93
0.618
$4.2
0.786
$4.59
Support
1.0
$5.09
Current Price
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.72
1.618
$6.52
2.0
$7.41
2.618
$8.84
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-04 16:45:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral sentiment, with a technical score of 1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 4.59 and resistance at 5.09, indicating a range-bound market with potential for volatility within these levels. The short-term ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.08%, positioning prices between 4.24 and 4.87. Traders may find opportunities for short-term trades if prices approach support or resistance levels, but should remain cautious of the overall market volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance shows a negative value of -34.03 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply which could impact production planning. The neutral news sentiment surrounding heating oil and natural gas suggests that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from potential price fluctuations. The heating demand is expected to be high due to the weather outlook, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which may influence production schedules and inventory management. Producers should remain vigilant of geopolitical risks impacting crude oil prices, which have a negative sentiment trend.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a high heating demand forecasted, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The neutral market sentiment indicates that while prices may stabilize, there is a risk of sudden spikes due to supply constraints highlighted by the negative fundamental balance. Consumers should consider locking in prices or exploring hedging options to manage procurement costs effectively, especially given the high heating degree days forecasted.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently in a neutral state, with technical indicators showing support at 4.59 and resistance at 5.09. The fundamental balance is notably negative at -34.03 BCFD, suggesting tightening supply dynamics. The weather outlook indicates a strong heating demand which could bolster prices in the short term. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments that may shift market sentiment, particularly regarding crude oil, which is currently facing bearish sentiment. Overall, the market is influenced by a mix of supply constraints and demand pressures, warranting close attention to emerging trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.