Nat Gas continues to have bullish forecasts- but after December 5th - we are seeing the HDDs dropping….that is not a good sign for bulls. The technical move to $5 is astounding - I expected $5 back in October - but felt this move was WAAAYYY too premature - I want to see the fundamental support - and right now we are more “average” while a move from $4 to $4.90 is not average - the two things can not coexist. At this point, I am halfway expecting a sharp reversal during December - and this will thrust us back down in a big BIG way - like $1-1.50. That said - if the forecasts live up to expectations - we will need to see significant follow through to really see any more upside. For this week - I am watching 4.476 as the key point to drop to - question is - will we touch 5.06 first…..price is so close to that right now….but fundamentals don’t support it while technicals do.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-12-02 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices are experiencing volatility with recent forecasts indicating warmer weather, which may dampen demand as heating degree days (HDDs) drop post-December 5th. While prices surged near $5, the lack of strong fundamental support raises concerns of a potential reversal, possibly dipping to $1-1.50 if trends persist. Technical indicators may suggest a test of $5.06, but uncertainty looms. Traders should keep an eye on weather patterns and HDD forecasts as pivotal influencers in the coming weeks. Stay alert!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.87
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.55
MA(20): $4.37
Current Price is 4.87, 9 day MA 4.55, 20 day MA 4.37
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2974
Signal: 0.3004
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.88
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.88 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,608
Avg (20d): 160,215
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 98.84
%D: 83.14
Stochastic %K: 98.84, %D: 83.14. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 44.12
+DI: 36.4
-DI: 9.28
ADX: 44.12 (+DI: 36.4, -DI: 9.28). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -1.16
Williams %R: -1.16 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.97
Middle: 4.37
Lower: 3.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.97, Middle: 4.37, Lower: 3.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
218.0 HDD
+32.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/24 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 29.0 | 24.0 | +5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/03 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 12/04 | 34.0 | 26.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/05 | 34.0 | 27.0 | +7.0 |
| 12/06 | 29.0 | 27.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/07 | 29.0 | 28.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/08 | 32.0 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/07 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.22
Daily:
-0.19 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
-0.44 (-0.44%)
US_10Y
4.09
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.08 (2.1%)
SP500
6829.37
Daily:
16.74 (0.25%)
Weekly:
63.49 (0.94%)
VIX
16.59
Daily:
-0.65 (-3.77%)
Weekly:
-1.97 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4215.9
Daily:
124.0 (3.03%)
Weekly:
138.2 (3.39%)
COPPER
5.29
Daily:
0.33 (6.62%)
Weekly:
0.28 (5.64%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,682,048
Change: +7,879
Managed Money
-45,917
Change: +29,422
-2.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
2,134
Change: +5,287
0.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
149,713
Change: +4,029
8.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-112,862
Change: -36,088
-6.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-21
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,997,649
Change: -68,941
Managed Money
-38,154
Change: -19,388
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
309,536
Change: +14,091
15.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-364,592
Change: +12,233
-18.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 10.468 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.065 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.597 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.468
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-12-02
JKM Prices
11.065
-0.025Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-12-02
JKM-TTF Spread
0.597
5.70%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-12-02
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.7
10.1
9.6
9.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.468 |
| JAN 26 | 9.634 |
| FEB 26 | 9.662 |
| MAR 26 | 9.579 |
| APR 26 | 9.315 |
| MAY 26 | 9.216 |
| JUN 26 | 9.232 |
| JUL 26 | 9.262 |
| AUG 26 | 9.307 |
| SEP 26 | 9.402 |
| OCT 26 | 9.465 |
| NOV 26 | 9.677 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.065 |
| FEB 26 | 10.460 |
| MAR 26 | 9.985 |
| APR 26 | 9.470 |
| MAY 26 | 9.385 |
| JUN 26 | 9.520 |
| JUL 26 | 9.670 |
| AUG 26 | 9.790 |
| SEP 26 | 9.800 |
| OCT 26 | 9.700 |
| NOV 26 | 9.925 |
| DEC 26 | 10.205 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.067
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
50
Last Updated:
2025-12-02 23:47:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Decision to Assess Maximum Output Capacity Could Spark Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Climbs 2% on OPEC+ Steady Output Plan, Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.87
Closest Support:
$4.43
9.03% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.88
0.21% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.27
0.382
$3.58
0.5
$3.83
0.618
$4.07
0.786
$4.43
Support
1.0
$4.88
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.45
1.618
$6.18
2.0
$6.99
2.618
$8.29
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-02 23:47:45
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 1/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 4.43 and the resistance level at 4.88. The ML price forecast suggests a slight increase of 0.08% with a range between 4.24 and 4.87, presenting potential short-term trading opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating a cautious approach is advisable, especially given the fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD which could introduce volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance shows a significant negative shift, which may impact production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output strategies in response to the expected high heating demand across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The market sentiment for natural gas is notably negative, which could affect pricing and hedging strategies. Monitoring geopolitical developments is essential, as they may influence supply stability and operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD suggests possible supply reliability risks, which may impact procurement strategies. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes, especially given the market sentiment around natural gas is currently negative.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market displays a complex picture with a neutral technical score and a negative fundamental balance. The prevailing bearish sentiment in natural gas contrasts with the bullish sentiment seen in crude oil, driven by geopolitical risks. Analysts should closely monitor the weather outlook and its impact on heating demand, as well as the evolving geopolitical landscape that could shift market dynamics significantly. Overall, the market appears to be at a crossroads, with potential shifts depending on external factors.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.