Natural gas has officially entered its winter personality mode — dramatic, unpredictable, and way too influenced by a single weather model run. After spending most of November pretending fundamentals didn’t exist, the market exploded higher as early December forecasts turned sharply colder. Production has ticked up significantly (but so has demand) - Nat Gas keeps trending higher, mostly based on forward forecasts - the current supply/demand balance is typical for this time of year and storage has yet to achieve a worrisome place - sitting consistently at 4.2% above the 5 year average. Right now - it feels like there is WAY more downside than upside and traders are not wanting to go short (even though that is likely the play). Technically we should head up to $5.06 and we may see that come Monday - but I think a bigger likelihood is a selloff. This rally has felt pre-mature to me, despite believing that this winter was holding $5+ potential. Right now - traders are buying the rumor…..I’m thinking we are close to selling the fact.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-29 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has embraced its winter persona, with prices soaring due to forecasts of below-normal temperatures and increased demand. Currently, the market is experiencing a typical seasonal supply/demand balance, with storage levels 4.2% above the five-year average. Despite a recent rally pushing prices close to $5.06, many traders sense potential downside risks, suggesting a sell-off may be imminent. With prices hitting a 35-month high, caution is advised as traders appear to be buying the rumor rather than the fact.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 9.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 8.9 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$4.85
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.55
MA(20): $4.37
Current Price is 4.85, 9 day MA 4.55, 20 day MA 4.37
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2957
Signal: 0.3
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.52
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.52 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 0
Avg (20d): 160,035
Ratio: 0.0
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 103.46
%D: 84.68
Stochastic %K: 103.46, %D: 84.68. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 44.96
+DI: 11.01
-DI: 65.22
ADX: 44.96 (+DI: 11.01, -DI: 65.22). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 3.46
Williams %R: 3.46 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.96
Middle: 4.37
Lower: 3.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.96, Middle: 4.37, Lower: 3.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.5 | 108.1 | 102.4 | 102.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.83 |
| Total Supply | 114.8 | 114.3 | 108.4 | 108.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 20.1 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 24.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.4 | 38.7 | 31.6 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 37.0 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 28.63 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 17.9 | 14.2 | 13.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 123.7 | 114.6 | 107.9 | 111.2 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -8.9 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -2.43 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
133.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
212.0 HDD
+38.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
1.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/21 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/24 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/25 | 18.0 | 23.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/27 | 24.0 | 22.0 | +2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/29 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/30 | 28.0 | 24.0 | +4.0 |
| 12/01 | 32.0 | 24.0 | +8.0 |
| 12/02 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/03 | 31.0 | 25.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/04 | 32.0 | 26.0 | +6.0 |
| 12/05 | 31.0 | 27.0 | +4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 12/03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.46
Daily:
-0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.72 (-0.72%)
US_10Y
4.02
Daily:
0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.13%)
SP500
6849.09
Daily:
36.48 (0.54%)
Weekly:
246.1 (3.73%)
VIX
16.35
Daily:
-0.84 (-4.89%)
Weekly:
-7.08 (-30.22%)
GOLD
4218.3
Daily:
126.4 (3.09%)
Weekly:
140.6 (3.45%)
COPPER
5.19
Daily:
0.22 (4.5%)
Weekly:
0.18 (3.54%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,674,169
Change: +33,848
Managed Money
-75,339
Change: -41,939
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-3,153
Change: -6,478
-0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
145,684
Change: +13,073
8.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-76,774
Change: +31,787
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,066,590
Change: +30,516
Managed Money
-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 10.468 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.090 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.622 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.468
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-29
JKM Prices
11.090
-0.025Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-29
JKM-TTF Spread
0.622
5.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-29
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
10.7
10.2
9.7
9.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.468 |
| JAN 26 | 9.804 |
| FEB 26 | 9.836 |
| MAR 26 | 9.746 |
| APR 26 | 9.453 |
| MAY 26 | 9.340 |
| JUN 26 | 9.365 |
| JUL 26 | 9.393 |
| AUG 26 | 9.434 |
| SEP 26 | 9.525 |
| OCT 26 | 9.609 |
| NOV 26 | 9.818 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.090 |
| FEB 26 | 10.500 |
| MAR 26 | 9.975 |
| APR 26 | 9.460 |
| MAY 26 | 9.365 |
| JUN 26 | 9.495 |
| JUL 26 | 9.610 |
| AUG 26 | 9.770 |
| SEP 26 | 9.770 |
| OCT 26 | 9.795 |
| NOV 26 | 9.925 |
| DEC 26 | 10.205 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
49
Last Updated:
2025-11-29 23:47:14
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.8
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Infrastructure (2 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Rally on a Larger EIA Storage Draw Barchart
- US Natural Gas Storage Falls for 2nd Week Trading Economics
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.85
Closest Support:
$4.69
3.3% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
-3.3% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$0.0
0.236
$1.11
0.382
$1.79
0.5
$2.34
0.618
$2.9
0.786
$3.68
1.0
$4.69
Support
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.96
1.618
$7.59
2.0
$9.38
2.618
$12.27
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.85
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-29 23:47:14
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.59%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | $4.82 | $4.52 | $5.12 |
| 2025-11-30 | $4.83 | $4.53 | $5.13 |
| 2025-12-01 | $4.84 | $4.54 | $5.14 |
| 2025-12-02 | $4.84 | $4.54 | $5.14 |
| 2025-12-03 | $4.82 | $4.52 | $5.12 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.59% for the next trading day (2025-11-29), reaching $4.82.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-29 and 2025-12-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci levels show support and resistance both at 4.69, indicating a potential price floor or ceiling around this level.
With a fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD, the supply-demand dynamics suggest a tightening market, which could support prices. However, the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.59% for the next day, with a range between 4.52 and 5.12. Traders should watch for volatility around these levels, especially amidst high heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening in the market, which may prompt producers to evaluate their production levels accordingly. With heating demand expected to remain high, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, there is potential for increased prices in the near term.
The bullish news sentiment surrounding natural gas, particularly related to storage draws, could provide a favorable backdrop for hedging strategies. Producers should consider locking in prices at current levels, especially given the ML forecast suggesting short-term price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
The high heating demand forecast, with significant heating degree days (HDD) across regions, suggests potential cost fluctuations for consumers. As the fundamental balance shows a tightening market, consumers may face increased prices, especially if heating demand continues to outstrip supply.
With the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline, consumers may find a window to procure natural gas at lower rates. However, they should remain vigilant of supply reliability risks due to the current market dynamics and consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral technical outlook, with Fibonacci levels indicating critical support and resistance at 4.69. The fundamental balance of -8.90 BCFD highlights a tightening market, further supported by high heating demand forecasts.
The bullish sentiment surrounding natural gas, particularly due to infrastructure and weather-related news, suggests potential upward pressure on prices. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, as they could signal shifts in market dynamics and pricing strategies moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.