Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. 4.50 is the battleground and we are exiting the week above the key level of 4.476. Price is at a level that is the best case for the bulls - so one little misstep on weather - we could head down in a hurry - 4.174 is likely the next stop. Mondays trading was a stalled point at 4.50 (not really moving up or down) - but the key bull/bear line right now is 4.476.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-25 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently experiencing volatility, pushed up by fears of winter demand despite a neutral to bearish fundamental outlook. Key levels are critical, with 4.50 acting as a battleground and a potential drop to 4.174 looming on warmer weather forecasts. Recent articles indicate a retreat in prices due to mixed weather and record output, suggesting traders are wary of potential downturns. Watching these levels will be essential as winter progresses—stay sharp and ready for rapid shifts!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.3 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.49
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.51
MA(20): $4.35
Current Price is 4.49, 9 day MA 4.51, 20 day MA 4.35
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.2666
Signal: 0.2942
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 62.45
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 62.45 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,154
Avg (20d): 160,192
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 59.07
%D: 69.89
Stochastic %K: 59.07, %D: 69.89. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 43.3
+DI: 28.75
-DI: 10.12
ADX: 43.3 (+DI: 28.75, -DI: 10.12). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -40.93
Williams %R: -40.93 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 4.91
Middle: 4.35
Lower: 3.79
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.91, Middle: 4.35, Lower: 3.79
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 114.3 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 32.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 7.75 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
135.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/18 | 21.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/20 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/21 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 19.0 | 22.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 15.0 | 23.0 | -8.0 |
| 11/26 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/27 | 25.0 | 22.0 | +3.0 |
| 11/28 | 27.0 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/29 | 28.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| 11/30 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 12/01 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/29 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/30 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12/01 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.69
Daily:
-0.45 (-0.45%)
Weekly:
-0.54 (-0.54%)
US_10Y
4.0
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.89%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-3.17%)
SP500
6765.88
Daily:
60.76 (0.91%)
Weekly:
123.72 (1.86%)
VIX
18.56
Daily:
-1.96 (-9.55%)
Weekly:
-5.1 (-21.56%)
GOLD
4195.6
Daily:
103.7 (2.53%)
Weekly:
117.9 (2.89%)
COPPER
5.13
Daily:
0.17 (3.39%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.44%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,674,169
Change: +33,848
Managed Money
-75,339
Change: -41,939
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-3,153
Change: -6,478
-0.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
145,684
Change: +13,073
8.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-76,774
Change: +31,787
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-10-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,066,590
Change: +30,516
Managed Money
-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 10.480 EUR/MWh (-0.026). JKM prices decreased to 11.250 USD/MMBtu (-0.215). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.770 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.480
-0.026Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-25
JKM Prices
11.250
-0.215Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-25
JKM-TTF Spread
0.770
7.35%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
10.9
10.4
9.9
9.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.480 |
| JAN 26 | 10.122 |
| FEB 26 | 10.126 |
| MAR 26 | 10.034 |
| APR 26 | 9.684 |
| MAY 26 | 9.586 |
| JUN 26 | 9.599 |
| JUL 26 | 9.620 |
| AUG 26 | 9.671 |
| SEP 26 | 9.751 |
| OCT 26 | 9.820 |
| NOV 26 | 10.024 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.250 |
| FEB 26 | 10.735 |
| MAR 26 | 10.235 |
| APR 26 | 9.675 |
| MAY 26 | 9.605 |
| JUN 26 | 9.710 |
| JUL 26 | 9.850 |
| AUG 26 | 10.025 |
| SEP 26 | 10.040 |
| OCT 26 | 10.050 |
| NOV 26 | 10.125 |
| DEC 26 | 10.405 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.433
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2025-11-25 23:47:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.49
Closest Support:
$4.28
4.68% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
4.45% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-25 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $4.55 | $4.24 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-26 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-27 | $4.55 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
| 2025-11-28 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-29 | $4.54 | $4.23 | $4.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $4.55.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data suggests a moderately bullish outlook with a technical score of 2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 4.28 and resistance at 4.69, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.08%, reinforcing the potential for upward movement. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.433. Traders should remain cautious of volatility and consider short-term opportunities or risks associated with this mixed sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening at -0.30 BCFD, which may suggest opportunities for producers to optimize production. However, the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.700) and overall market sentiment may impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines while monitoring the weather outlook, which indicates high heating demand across regions. This could lead to increased consumption, providing a window for strategic production planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather forecast highlighting high heating demand across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current fundamental balance shows a slight tightening, which may lead to increased prices. The bearish market sentiment indicates possible supply reliability risks that could affect procurement strategies. Consumers are advised to consider hedging options to protect against price volatility while evaluating their long-term energy contracts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a mixed picture with a moderately bullish technical outlook but a bearish overall sentiment. The fundamental balance shows a slight tightening, suggesting a potential shift in supply dynamics. The weather outlook favors heating demand, which could support prices in the short term. Analysts should focus on the divergence between technical indicators and market sentiment to gauge potential shifts in the market, particularly as heating demand peaks and influences consumption patterns.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.