Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. Well most of the storage move happened on Wednesday - taking us from 4.35 to over 4.50 - then on storage day stalled out and fell right back to the support level at 4.476
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has seen a rollercoaster ride in November, with prices fluctuating due to weather forecasts and market sentiment. Initially trading at $4.335, it broke key resistance levels but is now stalling as warmer forecasts loom. Despite expectations for a $5 winter, concerns about current storage and mild weather suggest a potential downturn ahead. Watch for support at $4.174, as traders react to shifting conditions. As always, keep an eye on the weather—it's the gift that keeps on giving (or taking)!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.3 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.67
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.51
MA(20): $4.18
Current Price is 4.67, 9 day MA 4.51, 20 day MA 4.18
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3136
Signal: 0.3121
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 69.96
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 69.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,904
Avg (20d): 159,813
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 97.0
%D: 80.45
Stochastic %K: 97.0, %D: 80.45. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 41.95
+DI: 31.63
-DI: 11.4
ADX: 41.95 (+DI: 31.63, -DI: 11.4). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.0
Williams %R: -3.0 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.07
Middle: 4.18
Lower: 3.3
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.07, Middle: 4.18, Lower: 3.3
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 114.3 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.3 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 32.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 17.9 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 7.75 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.3 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
117.0 HDD
-18.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
118.0 HDD
-34.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12 | 18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/18 | 21.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/20 | 18.0 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 11/21 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/24 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/25 | 16.0 | 23.0 | -7.0 |
| 11/26 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.12
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
0.85 (0.85%)
US_10Y
4.11
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.65%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-1.01%)
SP500
6538.76
Daily:
-103.4 (-1.56%)
Weekly:
-195.35 (-2.9%)
VIX
26.42
Daily:
2.76 (11.67%)
Weekly:
6.59 (33.23%)
GOLD
4049.7
Daily:
-28.0 (-0.69%)
Weekly:
-37.9 (-0.93%)
COPPER
4.93
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.27%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-30
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,659,086
Change: +32,309
Managed Money
-31,166
Change: +32,010
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-8,869
Change: -3,925
-0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,163
Change: +2,477
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-94,034
Change: -29,126
-5.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-30
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,358
Change: +69,668
Managed Money
14,053
Change: -12,430
0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,661
Change: -10,051
13.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-406,757
Change: -4,445
-20.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 10.576 EUR/MWh (-0.101). JKM prices increased to 11.540 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.964 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.576
-0.101Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-20
JKM Prices
11.540
+0.010Front month: JAN 26
As of 2025-11-20
JKM-TTF Spread
0.964
9.11%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.2
10.8
10.3
9.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.576 |
| JAN 26 | 10.542 |
| FEB 26 | 10.565 |
| MAR 26 | 10.467 |
| APR 26 | 10.093 |
| MAY 26 | 9.978 |
| JUN 26 | 9.987 |
| JUL 26 | 10.010 |
| AUG 26 | 10.058 |
| SEP 26 | 10.134 |
| OCT 26 | 10.194 |
| NOV 26 | 10.397 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JAN 26 | 11.540 |
| FEB 26 | 11.250 |
| MAR 26 | 10.650 |
| APR 26 | 10.090 |
| MAY 26 | 9.960 |
| JUN 26 | 10.110 |
| JUL 26 | 10.225 |
| AUG 26 | 10.390 |
| SEP 26 | 10.410 |
| OCT 26 | 10.380 |
| NOV 26 | 10.505 |
| DEC 26 | 10.770 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.333
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
88
Last Updated:
2025-11-20 23:48:08
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Russian Supply Fears Reflected in Middle Distillate Market, ING Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Weaker Demand Signals Amplify Oversupply Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as rising US inventories reinforce oversupply concerns Reuters
- Distillate Supply Concerns Pull Crude Futures Higher — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips As Traders Weigh Oversupply Prospects, Risks to Russian Flows — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady As Geopolitics Balance Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady With Focus on Russian Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (5 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Decline as US Weather Forecasts Turn Warmer Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Jump on Colder US Weather Forecasts Barchart
- US Natgas Prices Rebound on Colder Forecasts Trading Economics
- Nat-Gas Prices Slightly Higher as Near-Term Weather Forecasts Turn Colder Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Warm US Weather Forecasts and Ample Inventories Barchart
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.67
Closest Support:
$4.28
8.35% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
0.43% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.77
0.236
$3.22
0.382
$3.5
0.5
$3.73
0.618
$3.96
0.786
$4.28
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.21
1.618
$5.87
2.0
$6.6
2.618
$7.79
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.47
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-20 23:48:08
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.31%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-21 | $4.49 | $4.17 | $4.8 |
| 2025-11-22 | $4.51 | $4.19 | $4.82 |
| 2025-11-23 | $4.5 | $4.19 | $4.82 |
| 2025-11-24 | $4.49 | $4.17 | $4.81 |
| 2025-11-25 | $4.5 | $4.18 | $4.82 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2025-11-21), reaching $4.49.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-21 and 2025-11-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.28, while resistance is noted at 4.69. Traders should monitor the ML price forecast indicating a slight uptick of 0.31% for the next day, with a range between 4.17 and 4.80. However, bear in mind the overall market sentiment of -0.333, indicating potential volatility and risks in the short term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a slight deficit of -0.30 BCFD with a change of +0.50, indicating a tightening supply scenario. Producers should consider adjusting production planning in response to high heating demand across various regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Given the negative sentiment towards natural gas and crude oil, strategic hedging may be necessary to mitigate potential price declines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The overall market sentiment may lead to price volatility, necessitating careful procurement strategies. Monitoring the fundamental balance is crucial as it suggests tighter supply conditions, which could impact supply reliability and pricing in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a negative sentiment across key commodities, particularly in crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening market, while the weather outlook suggests increased heating demand. Analysts should focus on these driving factors as they may influence market dynamics and shape future outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.