Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. Nat Gas on Wednesday was supported by some more bullish weather reports - pretty big increases in HDDs that pushed Nat Gas above 4.394 and 4.476 but stalled out at 4.55….that seems to be maybe the last gasp? A lot may be riding on tomorrows storage - we’ll see how this pans out…
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-19 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas has recently shown surprising resilience with prices rising despite a neutral to bearish fundamental outlook. The market's current rally appears driven by short covering and colder weather forecasts, pushing prices above key levels. However, traders are cautious; with November's temperatures expected to remain warm, a pullback may be imminent as prices flirt with resistance near $4.55. Watch for upcoming inventory data, as it could significantly impact market sentiment and pricing trends in the coming weeks.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.5 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.8 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.56
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.47
MA(20): $4.12
Current Price is 4.56, 9 day MA 4.47, 20 day MA 4.12
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3119
Signal: 0.3119
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 67.74
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 67.74 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,235
Avg (20d): 160,070
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 80.83
%D: 74.6
Stochastic %K: 80.83, %D: 74.6. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 41.46
+DI: 31.97
-DI: 11.93
ADX: 41.46 (+DI: 31.97, -DI: 11.93). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -19.17
Williams %R: -19.17 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.04
Middle: 4.12
Lower: 3.19
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.04, Middle: 4.12, Lower: 3.19
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.5 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.8 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.8 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.8 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
119.0 HDD
-15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
117.0 HDD
-33.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | 23.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/12 | 18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/17 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19 | 18.0 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 11/20 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/21 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/24 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/25 | 17.0 | 23.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/25 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.25
Daily:
0.7 (0.7%)
Weekly:
1.07 (1.08%)
US_10Y
4.13
Daily:
0.01 (0.24%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.51%)
SP500
6642.16
Daily:
24.84 (0.38%)
Weekly:
-95.33 (-1.41%)
VIX
23.66
Daily:
-1.03 (-4.17%)
Weekly:
3.66 (18.3%)
GOLD
4074.9
Daily:
13.6 (0.33%)
Weekly:
-112.0 (-2.68%)
COPPER
5.04
Daily:
0.08 (1.54%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-0.95%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-30
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,659,086
Change: +32,309
Managed Money
-31,166
Change: +32,010
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-8,869
Change: -3,925
-0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
127,163
Change: +2,477
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-94,034
Change: -29,126
-5.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-30
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,006,358
Change: +69,668
Managed Money
14,053
Change: -12,430
0.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
273,661
Change: -10,051
13.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-406,757
Change: -4,445
-20.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.677 EUR/MWh (+0.032). JKM prices remained stable to 11.127 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.450 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.677
+0.032Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-19
JKM Prices
11.127
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-19
JKM-TTF Spread
0.450
4.21%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.3
10.8
10.4
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.677 |
| JAN 26 | 10.820 |
| FEB 26 | 10.826 |
| MAR 26 | 10.715 |
| APR 26 | 10.309 |
| MAY 26 | 10.182 |
| JUN 26 | 10.188 |
| JUL 26 | 10.213 |
| AUG 26 | 10.258 |
| SEP 26 | 10.333 |
| OCT 26 | 10.396 |
| NOV 26 | 10.598 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 11.127 |
| JAN 26 | 11.530 |
| FEB 26 | 11.255 |
| MAR 26 | 10.815 |
| APR 26 | 10.255 |
| MAY 26 | 10.145 |
| JUN 26 | 10.265 |
| JUL 26 | 10.385 |
| AUG 26 | 10.555 |
| SEP 26 | 10.550 |
| OCT 26 | 10.555 |
| NOV 26 | 10.680 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
76
Last Updated:
2025-11-19 23:47:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.3
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Oil edges up as US peace push may add to oversupply, though stockpile pull lends support Reuters
- Russian Supply Fears Reflected in Middle Distillate Market, ING Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Weaker Demand Signals Amplify Oversupply Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices fall as rising US inventories reinforce oversupply concerns Reuters
- Distillate Supply Concerns Pull Crude Futures Higher — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips As Traders Weigh Oversupply Prospects, Risks to Russian Flows — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady As Geopolitics Balance Oversupply Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steady With Focus on Russian Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
- Oil Falls as Weaker Demand Signals Amplify Oversupply Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Diesel Cracks Rise Amid Risks of Disruption to Russian Exports — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.56
Closest Support:
$4.26
6.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
2.85% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.68
0.236
$3.15
0.382
$3.44
0.5
$3.68
0.618
$3.92
0.786
$4.26
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.24
1.618
$5.93
2.0
$6.7
2.618
$7.94
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.55
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-19 23:47:46
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.74%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | $4.52 | $4.19 | $4.84 |
| 2025-11-21 | $4.53 | $4.2 | $4.85 |
| 2025-11-22 | $4.54 | $4.22 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-23 | $4.54 | $4.22 | $4.87 |
| 2025-11-24 | $4.53 | $4.21 | $4.85 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.74% for the next trading day (2025-11-20), reaching $4.52.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-20 and 2025-11-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD, suggesting a slight oversupply. The Fibonacci support is at 4.26, while resistance is at 4.69. Traders should be cautious as ML forecasts predict a downward price movement of 0.74% in the near term, with a range of 4.19 to 4.84. This presents potential short-term opportunities but also risks, particularly around the heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest, which could impact price volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the neutral market sentiment and the fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD when planning production levels. With the heating demand expected to dominate in colder regions, this could influence market prices positively in the short term. Additionally, the downward ML forecast suggests that producers might want to assess their hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue impacts from falling prices. Keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and regional weather patterns will be crucial for operational adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term as prices are projected to decrease by 0.74%. The moderate heating demand due to colder forecasts in the Northeast and Midwest may lead to increased consumption, impacting supply reliability. It’s advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to protect against price volatility in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance indicating slight oversupply. The downward ML price forecast and prevailing heating demand trends suggest a cautious outlook. Analysts should closely monitor the convergence of supply and demand dynamics, particularly the impact of geopolitical factors and weather forecasts on market conditions, as these are likely to be the strongest driving factors influencing price movements moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.