Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next. Bulls tried on Tuesday to bring Nat Gas back up to 4.394 but the destiny looks to be headed down. This week is likely a lot of balancing for positions before Thanksgiving holidays.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2025-11-18 18:09
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices have danced between volatility and stability lately, with a recent uptick driven by colder weather forecasts, defying earlier bearish fundamentals. As of now, the market is grappling with a short-covering rally, trading at $4.335 after breaking key levels. However, the warm November weather and ample inventories hint at challenges ahead, possibly leading prices back down to $4.174. Traders should brace for fluctuations as the market balances positions before the Thanksgiving holidays. Keep an eye on weather trends and inventory reports!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.5 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.8 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$4.37
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $4.45
MA(20): $4.06
Current Price is 4.37, 9 day MA 4.45, 20 day MA 4.06
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 0.3158
Signal: 0.3119
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 63.51
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 63.51 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 189,617
Avg (20d): 171,131
Ratio: 1.11
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 64.74
%D: 78.24
Stochastic %K: 64.74, %D: 78.24. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 41.14
+DI: 28.24
-DI: 12.77
ADX: 41.14 (+DI: 28.24, -DI: 12.77). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -35.26
Williams %R: -35.26 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 5.01
Middle: 4.06
Lower: 3.12
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 5.01, Middle: 4.06, Lower: 3.12
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.5 | 106.4 | 101.8 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.8 | 112.2 | 107.8 | 106.53 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.8 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 36.7 | 35.0 | 32.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.4 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 19.6 |
| LNG Exports | 18.5 | 17.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.97 |
| Total Demand | 114.6 | 110.1 | 101.4 | 100.8 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -0.8 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 5.73 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 23.0 | 17.0 | +6.0 |
| 11/11 | 23.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/12 | 18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/19 | 18.0 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 11/20 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/21 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/11 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.6
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
0.12 (0.12%)
US_10Y
4.12
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.43%)
SP500
6617.32
Daily:
-55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly:
-233.6 (-3.41%)
VIX
24.69
Daily:
2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly:
7.18 (41.01%)
GOLD
4067.4
Daily:
-0.9 (-0.02%)
Weekly:
-137.0 (-3.26%)
COPPER
4.97
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-2.36%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,626,777
Change: -11,903
Managed Money
-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI
Other Reportables
-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,936,690
Change: -25,930
Managed Money
26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 10.645 EUR/MWh (+0.020). JKM prices remained stable to 11.127 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.482 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
10.645
+0.020Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-18
JKM Prices
11.127
+0.000Front month: DEC 25
As of 2025-11-18
JKM-TTF Spread
0.482
4.53%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-11-18
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.8
10.4
10.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 10.645 |
| JAN 26 | 10.749 |
| FEB 26 | 10.761 |
| MAR 26 | 10.658 |
| APR 26 | 10.266 |
| MAY 26 | 10.157 |
| JUN 26 | 10.162 |
| JUL 26 | 10.188 |
| AUG 26 | 10.230 |
| SEP 26 | 10.304 |
| OCT 26 | 10.370 |
| NOV 26 | 10.581 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| DEC 25 | 11.127 |
| JAN 26 | 11.400 |
| FEB 26 | 11.070 |
| MAR 26 | 10.640 |
| APR 26 | 10.195 |
| MAY 26 | 10.185 |
| JUN 26 | 10.295 |
| JUL 26 | 10.425 |
| AUG 26 | 10.560 |
| SEP 26 | 10.545 |
| OCT 26 | 10.575 |
| NOV 26 | 10.835 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
38
Last Updated:
2025-11-18 18:09:01
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$4.37
Closest Support:
$4.25
2.75% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.69
7.32% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.65
0.236
$3.13
0.382
$3.43
0.5
$3.67
0.618
$3.91
0.786
$4.25
Support
1.0
$4.69
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$5.24
1.618
$5.95
2.0
$6.72
2.618
$7.98
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$4.36
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-18 18:09:02
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | $4.37 | $4.04 | $4.7 |
| 2025-11-19 | $4.36 | $4.03 | $4.69 |
| 2025-11-20 | $4.35 | $4.02 | $4.68 |
| 2025-11-21 | $4.35 | $4.02 | $4.68 |
| 2025-11-22 | $4.37 | $4.04 | $4.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $4.37.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market shows a moderately bullish sentiment with a score of 3/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate a support level at 4.25 and a resistance level at 4.69. Traders should be aware of the potential for price volatility as the ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.16%, with a range between 4.04 and 4.70. The overall bearish market sentiment, reflected in the sentiment score of -0.300, suggests that caution is warranted, particularly in the face of geopolitical risks impacting crude oil prices.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD suggests a tightening supply which may benefit producers in the short term. Given the moderate heating demand expected, especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The overall market sentiment remains negative, particularly driven by geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil, which could impact pricing strategies. Producers may want to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the moderate heating demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices as winter approaches. The current fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening, which could lead to supply reliability risks. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases, especially in light of the negative sentiment surrounding the energy market.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reveals a complex interplay of factors. The moderately bullish technical indicators contrast with the overall bearish sentiment. The fundamental balance is tightening, while weather forecasts indicate increased demand for heating, particularly in colder regions. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments impacting crude oil prices, as these could shift market dynamics rapidly. The ML price forecasts indicate a slight bullish trend, but caution is warranted given the current sentiment landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.