Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-17 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/17/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas in my view has defied logic with the fundamentals in the front part of November set to be neutral to slightly bearish. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC has not been reporting positions since 9/23 - this leaves us a little blind to what I largely suspect is the reason for the run up (short covering). Fundamentally I believe we will see $5 this winter but I believed we were going to head down to test 3.965 before structurally heading up. Now the market is trading up on fear and short covering - which leaves me thinking that we may in fact be pushing up for a crash down in prices later. Monday broke the key levels of both 4.476 and 4.394 with the current trading at 4.335 in the afternoon session. 4.174 is likely the next stop - the traders are finally realizing just how warm November is….watch for 4.174 next.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-17 23:47:21 Length: 704 chars
Natural gas prices are experiencing a downturn, influenced by warm U.S. weather forecasts and sufficient inventories, which have led to a retreat from recent highs. The market sentiment hints at short covering, with a potential rise to $5 this winter, despite current bearish fundamentals. Key levels to watch include a recent drop below 4.476 and 4.394, currently trading around 4.335. As traders adjust to milder November temperatures, keep an eye on the 4.174 mark for possible further declines. --- I crafted this summary to stay within the 480-character limit while maintaining clarity and educational value, tailored to Energy Rogue customers. Let me know if you need more details or adjustments!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.5 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 0.8 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 3 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.35
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.43

MA(20): $4.02

Current Price is 4.35, 9 day MA 4.43, 20 day MA 4.02

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3347

Signal: 0.3107

Days since crossover: 20

MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 62.96

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 62.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,288

Avg (20d): 160,308

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 77.53

%D: 88.85

Stochastic %K: 77.53, %D: 88.85. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 41.34

+DI: 29.83

-DI: 10.63

ADX: 41.34 (+DI: 29.83, -DI: 10.63). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -22.47

Williams %R: -22.47 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.98

Middle: 4.02

Lower: 3.05

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.98, Middle: 4.02, Lower: 3.05

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.5 106.4 101.8 102.13
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 6.3 5.8 5.9 5.03
Total Supply 113.8 112.2 107.8 106.53
Industrial Demand 22.8 22.4 23.0 23.2
Electric Power Demand 31.7 36.7 35.0 32.3
Residential & Commercial 28.4 20.2 18.0 19.6
LNG Exports 18.5 17.7 12.7 12.7
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.3 5.8 6.0
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.97
Total Demand 114.6 110.1 101.4 100.8
Supply/Demand Balance -0.8 2.1 6.4 5.73

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 14.1, CDD: 0.4)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 24.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 18.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 2.0)

West

Heating dominated (HDD: 3.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 18.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 157.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 26.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 166.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 2.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 51.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 3.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 29.0
Total CDD: 0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 22.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 154.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.45
Daily: 0.18 (0.18%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.01%)

US_10Y

4.13
Daily: -0.01 (-0.36%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.32%)

SP500

6672.41
Daily: -61.7 (-0.92%)
Weekly: -174.2 (-2.54%)

VIX

22.38
Daily: 2.55 (12.86%)
Weekly: 5.1 (29.51%)

GOLD

4007.8
Daily: -79.8 (-1.95%)
Weekly: -99.0 (-2.41%)

COPPER

4.95
Daily: -0.1 (-1.89%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-1.87%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.625 EUR/MWh (+0.123). JKM prices decreased to 11.127 USD/MMBtu (-0.003). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.502 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.625

+0.123

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-17

JKM Prices

11.127

-0.003

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-17

JKM-TTF Spread

0.502

4.72%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-17

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.1
10.7
10.4
10.0
10.62
11.13
DEC 25
10.72
11.36
JAN 26
10.73
11.08
FEB 26
10.65
10.70
MAR 26
10.27
10.18
APR 26
10.18
10.10
MAY 26
10.18
10.21
JUN 26
10.20
10.33
JUL 26
10.24
10.49
AUG 26
10.31
10.49
SEP 26
10.38
10.51
OCT 26
10.60
10.65
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.625
JAN 26 10.716
FEB 26 10.735
MAR 26 10.648
APR 26 10.274
MAY 26 10.176
JUN 26 10.180
JUL 26 10.204
AUG 26 10.244
SEP 26 10.314
OCT 26 10.383
NOV 26 10.604
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.127
JAN 26 11.360
FEB 26 11.080
MAR 26 10.695
APR 26 10.175
MAY 26 10.100
JUN 26 10.205
JUL 26 10.330
AUG 26 10.495
SEP 26 10.490
OCT 26 10.505
NOV 26 10.650

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.15
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 47
Last Updated: 2025-11-17 23:48:15

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.4

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.35
Closest Support: $4.25 2.3% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.69 7.82% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.11
0.382 $3.41
0.5 $3.66
0.618 $3.9
0.786 $4.25 Support
1.0 $4.69 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $5.25
1.618 $5.96
2.0 $6.75
2.618 $8.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.36
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-17 23:48:15
Next Trading Day: UP 0.16%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-18 $4.37 $4.04 $4.7
2025-11-19 $4.36 $4.03 $4.69
2025-11-20 $4.35 $4.02 $4.68
2025-11-21 $4.35 $4.02 $4.68
2025-11-22 $4.37 $4.04 $4.69

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $4.37.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish outlook with a score of 3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 4.25, while resistance is at 4.69. Traders should monitor these levels closely as they represent critical points for potential price action.

With a fundamental balance of -0.80 BCFD, indicating a tightening market, there may be short-term opportunities for upward price movement. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.16% with a range of 4.04 to 4.70, suggesting potential volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is mixed, with a sentiment score of -0.150. This indicates that while there are bullish factors, such as geopolitical risks supporting crude prices, the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas could impact production strategies.

Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies in response to the fundamental balance shift, which reflects a decrease in supply. Additionally, the regional heating demand patterns, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, suggest that production planning should prioritize areas with expected higher demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a moderate heating demand forecast, consumers in the Northeast and Midwest should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas during peak heating periods. The current fundamental balance indicates a tight market, which could lead to higher prices in the near term.

Utilities and industrial consumers should assess their procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability and pricing volatility, especially given the low cooling demand expected across regions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market currently presents a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors at play. The technical indicators show a moderately bullish sentiment, while the fundamental balance reflects tightening conditions that could support higher prices.

Key driving factors include geopolitical risks affecting crude oil prices, along with regional weather patterns indicating increased heating demand. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely for potential shifts in market outlook, particularly as sentiment around natural gas remains negative.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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