Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-09 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/09/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas ended the season with 3.915 which is a bit less than most analysts were expecting - power and lng is keeping demand up - but we are starting November with a soft demand - but this weekend in the East we will have a pretty big cold snap. What this does to storage will be interesting….we are set for a lot of winter volatility. Near term I think 3.965 is a target that will be achieved as I think we have gone too far and too fast up. Don’t get me wrong I am bullish this winter and think we will see $5+....but I think it’s just a bit too soon. 4.394 and 4.174 is the bull bear lines…..break above 4.394 and we may see 5 sooner rather than later - drop below 4.174 and we will see “at least” 3.965

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-09 23:46:53 Length: 495 chars
Natural gas prices are currently facing downward pressure, settling around $3.915, slightly below expectations, due to warm temperatures and increased production. As we enter November, a cold snap is expected in the East, which could spike demand and impact storage levels. Short-term targets are set at $3.965, with key resistance at $4.394; a breakout could signal a quicker move towards $5. However, a drop below $4.174 may lead prices back down. It's a winter of volatility ahead—stay alert!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 2.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.46
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $4.16

MA(20): $3.66

Current Price is 4.46, 9 day MA 4.16, 20 day MA 3.66

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.326

Signal: 0.2406

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 74.09

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 74.09 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 11,121

Avg (20d): 152,665

Ratio: 0.07

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 98.15

%D: 94.89

Stochastic %K: 98.15, %D: 94.89. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 33.94

+DI: 37.92

-DI: 9.72

ADX: 33.94 (+DI: 37.92, -DI: 9.72). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -1.85

Williams %R: -1.85 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.7

Middle: 3.66

Lower: 2.62

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.7, Middle: 3.66, Lower: 2.62

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.4 105.1 103.2 101.73
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.07
Canadian Imports 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.47
Total Supply 112.2 110.8 109.1 107.23
Industrial Demand 22.4 23.9 22.8 23.2
Electric Power Demand 36.7 34.0 34.2 32.1
Residential & Commercial 20.2 19.3 16.8 19.87
LNG Exports 17.7 17.0 13.5 13.1
Mexico Exports 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.07
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.93
Total Demand 110.1 107.5 100.4 101.3
Supply/Demand Balance 2.1 3.3 8.7 5.93

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 15.1, CDD: 0.6)
Residential/Commercial: HIGH heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 22.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 17.0)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 3.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 170.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 24.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 161.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 13.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 36.0
Total CDD: 24.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 56.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 21.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 151.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.6
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.62 (-0.61%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

SP500

6728.8
Daily: 8.48 (0.13%)
Weekly: -123.17 (-1.8%)

VIX

19.08
Daily: -0.42 (-2.15%)
Weekly: 1.91 (11.12%)

GOLD

4062.8
Daily: 63.4 (1.59%)
Weekly: 115.1 (2.92%)

COPPER

5.04
Daily: 0.1 (2.11%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.35%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.616 EUR/MWh (-0.065). JKM prices decreased to 11.130 USD/MMBtu (-0.025). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.514 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.616

-0.065

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-09

JKM Prices

11.130

-0.025

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-09

JKM-TTF Spread

0.514

4.84%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-09

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
10.0
10.62
11.13
DEC 25
10.70
11.12
JAN 26
10.74
10.97
FEB 26
10.64
10.60
MAR 26
10.26
10.09
APR 26
10.17
10.10
MAY 26
10.19
10.22
JUN 26
10.22
10.36
JUL 26
10.27
10.51
AUG 26
10.35
10.55
SEP 26
10.42
10.55
OCT 26
10.65
10.71
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.616
JAN 26 10.704
FEB 26 10.739
MAR 26 10.642
APR 26 10.258
MAY 26 10.167
JUN 26 10.191
JUL 26 10.223
AUG 26 10.266
SEP 26 10.345
OCT 26 10.424
NOV 26 10.654
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.130
JAN 26 11.115
FEB 26 10.970
MAR 26 10.595
APR 26 10.090
MAY 26 10.095
JUN 26 10.225
JUL 26 10.360
AUG 26 10.510
SEP 26 10.555
OCT 26 10.550
NOV 26 10.705

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.2
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 40
Last Updated: 2025-11-09 23:47:45

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.46
Closest Support: $4.09 8.3% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.49 0.67% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.06
0.382 $3.33
0.5 $3.55
0.618 $3.77
0.786 $4.09 Support
1.0 $4.49 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.99
1.618 $5.64
2.0 $6.35
2.618 $7.5

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.32
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-09 23:47:46
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.12%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-08 $4.31 $3.99 $4.63
2025-11-09 $4.31 $3.99 $4.62
2025-11-10 $4.32 $4.0 $4.63
2025-11-11 $4.3 $3.99 $4.62
2025-11-12 $4.31 $3.99 $4.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-11-08), reaching $4.31.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-08 and 2025-11-12.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~14.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market data presents a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 4.09 and resistance at 4.49, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.12%, which may create short-term trading opportunities. With heating demand dominating across regions, traders should be vigilant about volatility driven by weather patterns.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the fundamental balance of 2.10 BCFD with a notable decrease of 1.20 BCFD, indicating potential supply tightening. The overall market sentiment is bearish, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers might want to reassess their hedging strategies in light of the bearish news sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas, particularly with increasing production levels being reported. This could affect their operational planning and pricing strategies in the near term.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as heating demand is expected to remain high across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The weather outlook indicates high heating degree days (HDD), which typically leads to increased natural gas demand. Given the bearish sentiment regarding market conditions, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that hedge against possible price spikes due to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently influenced by several bearish factors, including a negative sentiment score of -0.400 across key commodities like crude oil and natural gas. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, while the weather outlook shows a significant increase in heating demand. Analysts should monitor how these factors interact, as they could lead to shifts in market dynamics, particularly if colder weather patterns persist or if production levels fluctuate significantly in response to demand changes.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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