Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-05 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/05/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). We have extended up on ironically bearish fundamentals - production is up, November weather is bearish, and LNG is up but not nearly enough (YET!!). The move since last Thursday took us from below 3.87 to over 4.26 - massive move up - yes there is some cold coming in the forecast but I think this is more about some short covering before winter truly sets in. 3.965 is likely on the radar this week - there are some gaps at 5.50 ant 3.449 - I think we’ll see a drop to 3.965 before deciding what to do next. But this week we are still defying gravity so far….4.174 is the support with 4.394 as the resistance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-05 23:47:30 Length: 550 chars
Natural gas prices recently experienced a significant drop, snapping a four-day winning streak. Currently trading between $4.08 and $3.788, expectations of cold weather and increasing production have created volatility, with forecasts suggesting a possible dip toward $3.965. Despite a bullish short-covering rally, fundamentals remain bearish, and storage levels are on the rise. Watch for storage data and weather developments as potential catalysts for future price movements. The market is still feeling the chill, but the forecast remains mixed.

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 2 (Moderately Bullish)
Current Price: $4.3
Signal: Moderately Bullish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.83

MA(20): $3.48

Current Price is 4.3, 9 day MA 3.83, 20 day MA 3.48

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.2809

Signal: 0.1725

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 74.13

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 74.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,326

Avg (20d): 154,644

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 93.35

%D: 95.85

Stochastic %K: 93.35, %D: 95.85. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 27.99

+DI: 41.13

-DI: 11.94

ADX: 27.99 (+DI: 41.13, -DI: 11.94). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -6.65

Williams %R: -6.65 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 4.38

Middle: 3.48

Lower: 2.58

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 4.38, Middle: 3.48, Lower: 2.58

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 11.0, CDD: 1.8)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 18.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 19.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 3.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 19.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 169.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 19.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 123.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 3.5
Total HDD: 23.0
Total CDD: 36.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 84.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 104.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.07
Daily: -0.15 (-0.15%)
Weekly: 0.54 (0.54%)

US_10Y

4.16
Daily: 0.07 (1.66%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.56%)

SP500

6796.29
Daily: 24.74 (0.37%)
Weekly: -26.05 (-0.38%)

VIX

18.01
Daily: -0.99 (-5.21%)
Weekly: 1.1 (6.51%)

GOLD

3995.1
Daily: 47.4 (1.2%)
Weekly: -6.2 (-0.15%)

COPPER

5.01
Daily: 0.09 (1.77%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.28%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.929 EUR/MWh (+0.218). JKM prices increased to 11.190 USD/MMBtu (+0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.261 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.929

+0.218

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-05

JKM Prices

11.190

+0.040

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-05

JKM-TTF Spread

0.261

2.39%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-05

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.93
11.19
DEC 25
11.05
11.38
JAN 26
11.06
11.26
FEB 26
10.94
10.89
MAR 26
10.51
10.32
APR 26
10.38
10.28
MAY 26
10.40
10.43
JUN 26
10.43
10.52
JUL 26
10.48
10.70
AUG 26
10.55
10.74
SEP 26
10.62
10.72
OCT 26
10.84
10.89
NOV 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
DEC 25 10.929
JAN 26 11.053
FEB 26 11.065
MAR 26 10.936
APR 26 10.505
MAY 26 10.384
JUN 26 10.396
JUL 26 10.429
AUG 26 10.476
SEP 26 10.550
OCT 26 10.619
NOV 26 10.842
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.190
JAN 26 11.380
FEB 26 11.260
MAR 26 10.895
APR 26 10.320
MAY 26 10.280
JUN 26 10.430
JUL 26 10.520
AUG 26 10.695
SEP 26 10.745
OCT 26 10.725
NOV 26 10.895

News & Sentiment Analysis

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.3
Closest Support: $4.02 6.51% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.4 2.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.04
0.382 $3.3
0.5 $3.51
0.618 $3.72
0.786 $4.02 Support
1.0 $4.4 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.88
1.618 $5.49
2.0 $6.17
2.618 $7.27

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.23
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-05 23:48:26
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.61%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-06 $4.21 $3.86 $4.55
2025-11-07 $4.2 $3.85 $4.55
2025-11-08 $4.18 $3.84 $4.53
2025-11-09 $4.18 $3.83 $4.52
2025-11-10 $4.19 $3.84 $4.53

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.61% for the next trading day (2025-11-06), reaching $4.21.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-06 and 2025-11-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The market outlook is bearish with an overall sentiment score of -0.500. The technical indicators suggest a support level at 4.02 and a resistance level at 4.4. Traders should be cautious of the volatility indicated by the ML price forecast predicting a downward movement of 0.61% within a range of 3.86 to 4.55. Short-term opportunities may arise if prices approach the support level, but the bearish sentiment indicates risks of further declines.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is bearish, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.400. The fundamental balance indicates a decrease in demand at 3.30 BCFD, which poses challenges for production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output levels and explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Additionally, the news sentiment surrounding increased US production may further pressure prices.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The moderate heating demand, as indicated by the weather outlook, suggests that supply may remain stable, but with a fundamental balance of 3.30 BCFD, there could be risks of supply disruptions. Procurement strategies should be reviewed to ensure reliability, especially as the forecast predicts low cooling demand, which may impact pricing dynamics in the upcoming months.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market picture is characterized by a bearish sentiment with a score of -0.500. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance that has decreased significantly, coupled with a weather outlook favoring heating demand. The combination of increased production and mixed weather forecasts suggests a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts should monitor these factors closely for any shifts in sentiment that could indicate a turnaround in pricing trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.