Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-03 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/03/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). We have extended up on ironically bearish fundamentals - production is up, November weather is bearish, and LNG is up but not nearly enough (YET!!). The move since last Thursday took us from below 3.87 to over 4.26 - massive move up - yes there is some cold coming in the forecast but I think this is more about some short covering before winter truly sets in. 3.965 is likely on the radar this week - there are some gaps at 5.50 ant 3.449 - I think we’ll see a drop to 3.965 before deciding what to do next.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-03 23:47:01 Length: 507 chars
Natural gas prices recently surged, reaching over a 7-month high, primarily driven by forecasts of colder early-winter temperatures. Despite bearish fundamentals—rising production and bearish November weather—short covering and bullish sentiment have propelled prices from below $3.87 to over $4.26. Current trading levels hover between $4.08 and $3.788, with a potential dip to $3.965 expected. Upcoming storage data, projected near 3.9 TCF, will be pivotal in shaping price direction as winter approaches.

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $4.26
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.62

MA(20): $3.39

Current Price is 4.26, 9 day MA 3.62, 20 day MA 3.39

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.2146

Signal: 0.1177

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 75.05

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 75.05 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,575

Avg (20d): 166,639

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 99.71

%D: 95.78

Stochastic %K: 99.71, %D: 95.78. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.6

+DI: 42.35

-DI: 13.7

ADX: 23.6 (+DI: 42.35, -DI: 13.7). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -0.29

Williams %R: -0.29 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 4.09

Middle: 3.39

Lower: 2.69

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 4.09, Middle: 3.39, Lower: 2.69

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 22.2, CDD: 2.5)
Residential/Commercial: HIGH heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 26.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 38.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 20.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 38.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 161.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 27.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 121.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 20.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 30.5
Total CDD: 44.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 88.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 25.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 99.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.9
Daily: 0.1 (0.1%)
Weekly: 1.21 (1.23%)

US_10Y

4.11
Daily: 0.01 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.12 (3.09%)

SP500

6851.97
Daily: 11.77 (0.17%)
Weekly: -38.92 (-0.56%)

VIX

17.17
Daily: -0.27 (-1.55%)
Weekly: 0.75 (4.57%)

GOLD

4000.3
Daily: 18.1 (0.45%)
Weekly: 34.1 (0.86%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: -0.05 (-0.93%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.37%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 10.900 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.100 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.900

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-11-03

JKM Prices

11.000

-0.130

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-03

JKM-TTF Spread

0.100

0.92%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-03

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
9.9
10.90
11.00
NOV 25
10.53
10.95
DEC 25
10.63
10.84
JAN 26
10.67
10.53
FEB 26
10.56
10.04
MAR 26
10.20
10.01
APR 26
10.09
10.16
MAY 26
10.11
10.29
JUN 26
10.13
10.45
JUL 26
10.19
10.49
AUG 26
10.28
10.49
SEP 26
10.38
10.73
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.900
DEC 25 10.527
JAN 26 10.632
FEB 26 10.672
MAR 26 10.562
APR 26 10.199
MAY 26 10.086
JUN 26 10.108
JUL 26 10.133
AUG 26 10.191
SEP 26 10.276
OCT 26 10.376
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.000
JAN 26 10.950
FEB 26 10.835
MAR 26 10.530
APR 26 10.035
MAY 26 10.005
JUN 26 10.165
JUL 26 10.290
AUG 26 10.445
SEP 26 10.490
OCT 26 10.495
NOV 26 10.735

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 50
Last Updated: 2025-11-03 23:47:57

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.8

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.26
Closest Support: $3.91 8.22% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.26 0.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $3.01
0.382 $3.25
0.5 $3.44
0.618 $3.63
0.786 $3.91 Support
1.0 $4.26 Current Price

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.71
1.618 $5.27
2.0 $5.9
2.618 $6.91

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.27
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-03 23:47:58
Next Trading Day: UP 0.36%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-04 $4.28 $3.94 $4.62
2025-11-05 $4.3 $3.96 $4.64
2025-11-06 $4.26 $3.92 $4.6
2025-11-07 $4.26 $3.91 $4.6
2025-11-08 $4.25 $3.9 $4.59

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.36% for the next trading day (2025-11-04), reaching $4.28.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-04 and 2025-11-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions are neutral with a technical score of 0/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.91 and resistance at 4.26. The ML price forecast indicates a potential uptick of 0.36%, with a range between 3.94 and 4.62. Traders should watch for short-term volatility, particularly as the market sentiment remains bullish, driven by strong heating demand across regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of 3.30 BCFD and a slight decrease of -4.10, producers may need to adjust production plans accordingly. The bearish sentiment from supply-related news may impact pricing strategies, especially with OPEC+ production decisions influencing crude prices. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations and leverage the bullish sentiment in natural gas markets to optimize output.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Heating demand is expected to be high, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may lead to increased costs for consumers. As the weather outlook indicates a strong heating demand with high HDD values, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The bullish sentiment in natural gas could indicate rising prices, suggesting that consumers may need to consider procurement strategies or hedging to manage expenses effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market currently presents a mixed picture with a neutral technical stance and a bullish sentiment overall. Key drivers include strong heating demand due to weather forecasts and geopolitical risks affecting crude oil prices. Analysts should focus on the fundamental balance and the ML price forecast as indicators of potential shifts in market dynamics, especially in response to OPEC+ production strategies and regional demand fluctuations.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.