Natural Gas Radar

2025-11-01 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/01/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). We have extended up on ironically bearish fundamentals - production is up, November weather is bearish, and LNG is up but not nearly enough (YET!!). We ended the week above $4 (and there are still some gaps way above like at 4.75….but those won’t really enter the equation until later in the winter.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-01 23:46:34 Length: 540 chars
Natural gas prices have recently surged, hitting a seven-month high, primarily due to forecasts of colder temperatures and strong LNG demand. With December trading now in play, prices have settled between $4.08 and $3.788, with a potential dip to $3.679. Despite bearish fundamentals—rising production, mild November weather, and insufficient LNG exports—market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. As we approach the end of the month, storage levels are expected to hover around 3.93 TCF, signaling a critical period ahead for traders.

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $4.12
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.54

MA(20): $3.34

Current Price is 4.12, 9 day MA 3.54, 20 day MA 3.34

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.1683

Signal: 0.0934

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 73.08

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 73.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 201,075

Avg (20d): 172,851

Ratio: 1.16

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 97.39

%D: 86.25

Stochastic %K: 97.39, %D: 86.25. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 21.49

+DI: 40.72

-DI: 14.37

ADX: 21.49 (+DI: 40.72, -DI: 14.37). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -2.61

Williams %R: -2.61 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 3.92

Middle: 3.34

Lower: 2.77

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.92, Middle: 3.34, Lower: 2.77

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 10.5, CDD: 2.5)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 15.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 21.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 0.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 21.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 104.5
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 87.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 7.0
Total CDD: 35.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 94.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 71.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.8
Daily: 0.27 (0.27%)
Weekly: 1.02 (1.03%)

US_10Y

4.1
Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.6%)

SP500

6840.2
Daily: 17.86 (0.26%)
Weekly: -34.96 (-0.51%)

VIX

17.44
Daily: 0.53 (3.13%)
Weekly: 1.65 (10.45%)

GOLD

3982.2
Daily: -19.1 (-0.48%)
Weekly: -19.7 (-0.49%)

COPPER

5.07
Daily: -0.01 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.46%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 10.900 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 11.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.130). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.100 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.900

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-11-01

JKM Prices

11.000

-0.130

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-11-01

JKM-TTF Spread

0.100

0.92%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-11-01

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
9.9
10.90
11.00
NOV 25
10.53
10.95
DEC 25
10.63
10.84
JAN 26
10.67
10.53
FEB 26
10.56
10.04
MAR 26
10.20
10.01
APR 26
10.09
10.16
MAY 26
10.11
10.29
JUN 26
10.13
10.45
JUL 26
10.19
10.49
AUG 26
10.28
10.49
SEP 26
10.38
10.73
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.900
DEC 25 10.527
JAN 26 10.632
FEB 26 10.672
MAR 26 10.562
APR 26 10.199
MAY 26 10.086
JUN 26 10.108
JUL 26 10.133
AUG 26 10.191
SEP 26 10.276
OCT 26 10.376
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.000
JAN 26 10.950
FEB 26 10.835
MAR 26 10.530
APR 26 10.035
MAY 26 10.005
JUN 26 10.165
JUL 26 10.290
AUG 26 10.445
SEP 26 10.490
OCT 26 10.495
NOV 26 10.735

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.65
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 70
Last Updated: 2025-11-01 23:47:29

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.7

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.12
Closest Support: $3.83 7.04% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.16 0.97% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98
0.382 $3.21
0.5 $3.39
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.83 Support
1.0 $4.16 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.57
1.618 $5.11
2.0 $5.69
2.618 $6.64

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $4.12
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-01 23:47:30
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.56%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-01 $4.1 $3.76 $4.44
2025-11-02 $4.13 $3.79 $4.47
2025-11-03 $4.14 $3.8 $4.48
2025-11-04 $4.09 $3.75 $4.44
2025-11-05 $4.09 $3.74 $4.43

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.56% for the next trading day (2025-11-01), reaching $4.10.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-01 and 2025-11-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.83 and resistance at 4.16. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.56%, indicating short-term volatility risks. Traders should monitor for price movements within the range of 3.76 to 4.44 as fluctuations may present short-term trading opportunities.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows a slight contraction at 3.30 BCFD, which may impact production strategies. With a bullish overall market sentiment and specific positive sentiment for natural gas (+0.700), producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to capitalize on potential price increases. However, the sentiment surrounding supply risks could necessitate a cautious approach to production planning.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With moderate heating demand expected and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The current weather outlook indicates increased heating degree days (HDD) in the Northeast and Midwest, which may lead to higher consumption costs. It's advisable for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential price increases driven by demand spikes.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a mixed picture with bullish sentiment overall, particularly for natural gas. However, the fundamental balance indicates a contraction, suggesting potential volatility ahead. Key driving factors include weather patterns favoring heating demand and geopolitical risks affecting crude oil prices. Analysts should watch for shifts in sentiment and demand dynamics that could lead to significant market adjustments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.