Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-30 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/30/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Now that we’re trading December - we’ve dropped right to the levels we expected - 4.08 down to 3.788 (with 3.75 as the touch point). A move to 3.679 would not surprise me here….but there could be some movement tomorrow as storage will come out and put us just shy of 3.9 TCF (through the 24th of the month - leaving 7 days until EOS). I expect us to end up around 3.93 (so Bill gets the “closest to the pin” as my number was 3.85 and his was 3.95). 3.75 is the near term support to watch - and the bulls will need to push above 3.87 to actually regain potential for 4.00. If we don’t have decent weather - a move all the way to 3.525 could be in order…but as we are approaching winter - traders are getting nervous (thus the short covering taking us back to 4.00) - I think this move is more about shoring up positions than a move based on fundamentals (even though this winter I think we could in fact see 5+ but we just aren’t there YET)

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-30 23:47:14 Length: 541 chars
Natural gas prices have recently climbed, driven by cooler weather forecasts, placing December trading within the expected range of $4.08 to $3.788, with $3.75 as near-term support. Traders anticipate a storage report revealing inventories just shy of 3.9 TCF. While short-covering has led to movements back to $4.00, fundamentals remain mixed. A lack of significant weather could push prices lower to $3.525, although sentiment leans toward a potential winter surge beyond $5 if conditions align. Watch for storage data and weather updates!

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 3.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $4.05
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.46

MA(20): $3.31

Current Price is 4.05, 9 day MA 3.46, 20 day MA 3.31

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.1278

Signal: 0.0762

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 71.82

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 71.82 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,351

Avg (20d): 164,074

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 96.82

%D: 78.17

Stochastic %K: 96.82, %D: 78.17. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.5

+DI: 40.88

-DI: 15.3

ADX: 19.5 (+DI: 40.88, -DI: 15.3). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -3.18

Williams %R: -3.18 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 3.79

Middle: 3.31

Lower: 2.83

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.79, Middle: 3.31, Lower: 2.83

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.1 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 110.8 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.9 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 34.0 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 19.3 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 17.0 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 107.5 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 3.3 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 11.2, CDD: 1.5)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 18.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 16.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 2.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 16.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 124.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 20.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 99.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 12.0
Total CDD: 13.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 94.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 80.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.51
Daily: 0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly: 0.56 (0.56%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: 0.03 (0.86%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.4%)

SP500

6822.34
Daily: -68.25 (-0.99%)
Weekly: 30.65 (0.45%)

VIX

16.91
Daily: -0.01 (-0.06%)
Weekly: 0.54 (3.3%)

GOLD

4014.1
Daily: 30.4 (0.76%)
Weekly: -104.3 (-2.53%)

COPPER

5.1
Daily: -0.14 (-2.62%)
Weekly: 0.0 (0.06%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.916 EUR/MWh (+0.011). JKM prices increased to 11.215 USD/MMBtu (+0.065). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.299 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.916

+0.011

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-30

JKM Prices

11.215

+0.065

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-30

JKM-TTF Spread

0.299

2.74%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-30

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.2
10.92
11.21
NOV 25
10.99
11.22
DEC 25
11.06
11.16
JAN 26
11.08
10.80
FEB 26
10.95
10.30
MAR 26
10.51
10.26
APR 26
10.38
10.40
MAY 26
10.39
10.52
JUN 26
10.40
10.70
JUL 26
10.47
10.73
AUG 26
10.55
10.74
SEP 26
10.65
10.98
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.916
DEC 25 10.993
JAN 26 11.057
FEB 26 11.082
MAR 26 10.946
APR 26 10.514
MAY 26 10.382
JUN 26 10.387
JUL 26 10.405
AUG 26 10.466
SEP 26 10.555
OCT 26 10.653
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.215
JAN 26 11.220
FEB 26 11.160
MAR 26 10.800
APR 26 10.300
MAY 26 10.255
JUN 26 10.400
JUL 26 10.520
AUG 26 10.695
SEP 26 10.735
OCT 26 10.745
NOV 26 10.985

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.125
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 91
Last Updated: 2025-10-30 23:48:07

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.65

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Weather (4 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $4.05
Closest Support: $3.77 6.91% below current price
Closest Resistance: $4.09 0.99% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.97
0.382 $3.18
0.5 $3.35
0.618 $3.53
0.786 $3.77 Support
1.0 $4.09 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.49
1.618 $4.99
2.0 $5.55
2.618 $6.46

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.96
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-30 23:48:08
Next Trading Day: DOWN 1.65%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-31 $3.89 $3.55 $4.23
2025-11-01 $3.89 $3.55 $4.23
2025-11-02 $3.92 $3.58 $4.26
2025-11-03 $3.92 $3.58 $4.26
2025-11-04 $3.87 $3.53 $4.22

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.65% for the next trading day (2025-10-31), reaching $3.89.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-31 and 2025-11-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~17.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is neutral, with a technical interpretation score of 0/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.77 and resistance at 4.09. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 1.65%, suggesting caution in the short term. Volatility may arise from the overall neutral sentiment and the significant changes in fundamental balance at 3.30 BCFD (Change: -4.10). Traders should monitor price movements closely for opportunities around these levels.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Given the neutral market sentiment and the current fundamental balance, producers should evaluate their production planning carefully. The decrease in fundamental balance may indicate a need for adjustments in output levels. Additionally, with the current neutral sentiment in the news, it may be a prudent time to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. The geopolitical landscape remains a factor, particularly with the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil, which could affect pricing strategies.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement due to the neutral sentiment and expected moderate heating demand with low cooling demand. The heating degree days (HDD) indicate a strong need for heating across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may affect supply reliability. With the current fundamental balance at 3.30 BCFD, consumers should consider strategies for procurement or hedging against price volatility in the coming weeks.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment across various indicators. The fundamental balance shows a decrease, which could signal shifting supply-demand dynamics. The weather outlook suggests a predominance of heating demand, particularly in colder regions, which may influence natural gas prices. Analysts should focus on the implications of these factors, particularly the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil and its potential impact on overall market trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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