Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-28 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/28/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas is dropping right before the December roll - which we targeted 3.75 to 3.87 as the key range - and December traded down from 4.08 to 3.83 today. Weakness in storage build is worrying some of the bulls out there - which right now - the shoulder season is bringing full confusion on how much storage is “too much” - even though exiting at 3.9 TCF is not “overfilled” - if winter doesn’t show and LNG exports slow - we could have some severe bearish action. That said - my thought is that we see the December contract retreat down to 3.67 and then decide where to go….weather (not today or tomorrow - but Nov-Dec) will decide if we see $5 or $2….I think the former is likely this winter - if and only if we see some good weather. As for the rest of this week - I am watching 3.75 as the key tipping point.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-28 23:46:30 Length: 559 chars
Natural gas prices have recently experienced volatility, dropping to $3.83 from $4.08 due to weaker storage builds and warmer weather forecasts. Currently, there's a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with key levels at $3.75 and $3.67. While exiting storage at 3.9 TCF isn't overfilled, a mild winter could lead to bearish trends. Interestingly, recent rallies saw gas prices hit an 18-week high, but the overarching sentiment remains cautious as weather patterns will ultimately dictate market direction. Watch closely for any shifts as we approach winter!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.27
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.29

MA(20): $3.28

Current Price is 3.27, 9 day MA 3.29, 20 day MA 3.28

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0679

Signal: 0.0593

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.04

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 221

Avg (20d): 176,685

Ratio: 0.0

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 55.67

%D: 65.68

Stochastic %K: 55.67, %D: 65.68. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.98

+DI: 26.35

-DI: 20.2

ADX: 17.98 (+DI: 26.35, -DI: 20.2). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -44.33

Williams %R: -44.33 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.63

Middle: 3.28

Lower: 2.93

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.63, Middle: 3.28, Lower: 2.93

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.3 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 111.0 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.4 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 32.3 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 18.0 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 16.7 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 103.6 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 7.4 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 12.7, CDD: 3.0)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 17.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 19.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 10.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 15.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 19.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 121.5
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 16.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 104.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 37.5
Total CDD: 1.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 15.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 122.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 17.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 85.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.79
Daily: 0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-0.11%)

US_10Y

3.98
Daily: -0.01 (-0.35%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.76%)

SP500

6890.89
Daily: 15.73 (0.23%)
Weekly: 191.49 (2.86%)

VIX

16.42
Daily: 0.63 (3.99%)
Weekly: -2.18 (-11.72%)

GOLD

3983.4
Daily: -18.5 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -61.0 (-1.51%)

COPPER

5.17
Daily: 0.03 (0.49%)
Weekly: 0.2 (4.12%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.898 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 11.120 USD/MMBtu (-0.085). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.222 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.898

-0.035

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-28

JKM Prices

11.120

-0.085

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-28

JKM-TTF Spread

0.222

2.04%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-28

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.3
10.0
10.90
11.12
NOV 25
10.81
11.01
DEC 25
10.88
10.96
JAN 26
10.91
10.61
FEB 26
10.78
10.15
MAR 26
10.39
10.14
APR 26
10.27
10.28
MAY 26
10.27
10.40
JUN 26
10.29
10.55
JUL 26
10.36
10.61
AUG 26
10.44
10.67
SEP 26
10.54
10.90
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.898
DEC 25 10.812
JAN 26 10.876
FEB 26 10.907
MAR 26 10.781
APR 26 10.392
MAY 26 10.268
JUN 26 10.274
JUL 26 10.293
AUG 26 10.355
SEP 26 10.436
OCT 26 10.537
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.120
JAN 26 11.010
FEB 26 10.955
MAR 26 10.605
APR 26 10.150
MAY 26 10.140
JUN 26 10.280
JUL 26 10.405
AUG 26 10.550
SEP 26 10.605
OCT 26 10.670
NOV 26 10.900

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.5
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 46
Last Updated: 2025-10-28 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.27
Closest Support: $3.22 1.53% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.38 3.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22 Support
0.786 $3.38 Resistance
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.35
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-28 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.36%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-29 $3.36 $3.08 $3.64
2025-10-30 $3.36 $3.08 $3.65
2025-10-31 $3.37 $3.09 $3.65
2025-11-01 $3.36 $3.07 $3.64
2025-11-02 $3.36 $3.08 $3.65

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.36% for the next trading day (2025-10-29), reaching $3.36.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-29 and 2025-11-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.22 and resistance at 3.38. Given the fundamental balance of 7.40 BCFD with a positive change of +2.80, traders should be aware of potential price movements. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.36%, indicating short-term opportunities for profit, especially if prices approach resistance levels. However, the overall technical score indicates caution in taking aggressive positions due to potential volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is bullish for natural gas, with a sentiment score of +0.400. This is favorable for production planning as it suggests a stable demand environment. However, the technical indicators and the recent news regarding OPEC+ plans to increase output could introduce risks of price fluctuations. Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate potential impacts from increased supply and fluctuating prices while capitalizing on the current positive sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With moderate heating demand expected across various regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The weather outlook indicates a dominant heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may lead to increased prices during peak demand periods. The recent technical analysis indicates a 3.22 support level, suggesting a buffer against sharp price declines. Consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging or securing contracts to manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a mixed picture with a bullish sentiment overall, particularly for natural gas, while crude oil sentiment remains weaker. The fundamental balance indicates a healthy supply-demand ratio, but the technical outlook is neutral, suggesting no immediate significant price movements. Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather forecasts and supply news, as these are key drivers that could shift the market outlook. Close monitoring of OPEC+ actions and regional demand will be critical in predicting potential shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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