Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-26 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/26/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas shifted off 3.50 as we projected and went to our key support area of 3.247 but closed the week at the next resistance level 3.342. As we mentioned before 2.92 was “too low” but 3.50 felt “too high” - bullish signs are pulling the November contract to the $4 December contract (plus storage puts a little bit of fear into traders). We are exiting the storage season with less than many analysts projected. The winter is expected to bring nothing but volatility - but rest assured - if we have a strong winter - $4 and $5 are likely in the cards. 3.247 to 3.449 is going to be the wider range for this next week (rolling over to December) - so I see next week as a move up on November and down on December - with a convergence at 3.679 once the rollover has taken place.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-26 23:46:41 Length: 526 chars
Natural gas prices have shown recent volatility, bouncing from a low of $3.50 to key resistance at $3.342, driven by seasonal shifts and weather forecasts. Despite ample inventories, which typically exert downward pressure, expectations of a cold winter could push prices toward $4 or even $5. As we roll into December contracts, anticipate a trading range of $3.247 to $3.449, with potential convergence at $3.679 post-rollover. Traders should remain alert as winter weather could significantly impact supply-demand dynamics.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.36
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.25

MA(20): $3.28

Current Price is 3.36, 9 day MA 3.25, 20 day MA 3.28

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0684

Signal: 0.0558

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.42

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,829

Avg (20d): 183,992

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 68.48

%D: 65.14

Stochastic %K: 68.48, %D: 65.14. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.17

+DI: 28.29

-DI: 21.21

ADX: 18.17 (+DI: 28.29, -DI: 21.21). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -31.52

Williams %R: -31.52 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.62

Middle: 3.28

Lower: 2.93

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.62, Middle: 3.28, Lower: 2.93

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.3 104.6 101.5 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.17
Canadian Imports 5.7 5.6 6.4 5.8
Total Supply 111.0 110.2 108.0 106.87
Industrial Demand 23.4 23.4 22.9 23.03
Electric Power Demand 32.3 31.7 34.2 32.37
Residential & Commercial 18.0 20.4 16.0 17.6
LNG Exports 16.7 16.9 13.7 13.13
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 103.6 105.6 99.7 99.0
Supply/Demand Balance 7.4 4.6 8.3 7.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 10.4, CDD: 3.1)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 18.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 7.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 15.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 18.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 122.5
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 107.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 7.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 13.0
Total CDD: 23.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 15.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 121.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 88.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.9
Daily: -0.04 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.03%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: 0.01 (0.15%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.28%)

SP500

6791.69
Daily: 53.25 (0.79%)
Weekly: 56.56 (0.84%)

VIX

16.37
Daily: -0.93 (-5.38%)
Weekly: -1.86 (-10.2%)

GOLD

4089.3
Daily: -29.1 (-0.71%)
Weekly: 1.6 (0.04%)

COPPER

5.2
Daily: 0.11 (2.1%)
Weekly: 0.27 (5.49%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.933 EUR/MWh (-0.030). JKM prices decreased to 11.205 USD/MMBtu (-0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.272 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.933

-0.030

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-26

JKM Prices

11.205

-0.060

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-26

JKM-TTF Spread

0.272

2.49%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-26

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.93
11.21
NOV 25
11.03
11.21
DEC 25
11.11
11.14
JAN 26
11.14
10.84
FEB 26
11.02
10.34
MAR 26
10.60
10.32
APR 26
10.47
10.46
MAY 26
10.47
10.59
JUN 26
10.49
10.73
JUL 26
10.55
10.78
AUG 26
10.63
10.82
SEP 26
10.72
11.06
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.933
DEC 25 11.030
JAN 26 11.106
FEB 26 11.142
MAR 26 11.015
APR 26 10.602
MAY 26 10.467
JUN 26 10.466
JUL 26 10.490
AUG 26 10.553
SEP 26 10.630
OCT 26 10.722
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.205
JAN 26 11.215
FEB 26 11.140
MAR 26 10.835
APR 26 10.340
MAY 26 10.320
JUN 26 10.455
JUL 26 10.585
AUG 26 10.730
SEP 26 10.780
OCT 26 10.825
NOV 26 11.060

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.05
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 47
Last Updated: 2025-10-26 23:47:40

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

CRUDE_OIL

0.8

Top News Topics

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (12 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.36
Closest Support: $3.22 4.17% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.38 0.6% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22 Support
0.786 $3.38 Resistance
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.3
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-26 23:47:41
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.98%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-25 $3.27 $3.0 $3.55
2025-10-26 $3.26 $2.99 $3.54
2025-10-27 $3.26 $2.99 $3.54
2025-10-28 $3.27 $3.0 $3.55
2025-10-29 $3.27 $3.0 $3.55

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.98% for the next trading day (2025-10-25), reaching $3.27.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-25 and 2025-10-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is neutral, with a technical score of 1/5, indicating limited directional conviction. The Fibonacci support is at 3.22 and resistance at 3.38. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the ML price forecast indicating a slight downward movement of 0.98%. Short-term opportunities may arise around these levels, but risks remain elevated due to the neutral technical indicators.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of 7.40 BCFD showing a significant increase of +2.80, producers should evaluate their production planning strategies. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests stable demand, but the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas could influence pricing strategies. Hedging against potential price declines may be prudent, especially with the current storage build impacting prices.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows neutral sentiment with moderate heating demand expected due to the weather outlook. The fundamental balance suggests a reliable supply, but the low cooling demand may lead to price adjustments. Procurement strategies should consider the current price range of 3.0 to 3.55 and the implications of the ML forecast indicating a slight decrease in prices.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently characterized by neutral sentiment, with a fundamental balance indicating a healthy supply level. The predominant heating demand across regions suggests a stable consumption pattern, although the low cooling demand may impact pricing dynamics. Analysts should focus on the bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas and the geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices. The overall market outlook remains cautious, with potential shifts depending on upcoming weather patterns and geopolitical developments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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