Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-22 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/22/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
As we rallied to $3.50 - we quickly bounced off - leaving questions of what might be coming (my thought - I think we’re headed back down to 3.247). We have been in a land of extremes - 2.92 was TOO LOW, conversely 3.50 is TOO HIGH (in my humble opinion) - I think the goldilocks zone is 3.247 which I think is coming next. The large reason for the run up is what I believe to be short covering - however we can not confirm that as the CFTC is not reporting positions since 9/23 (another victim of the government shutdown).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-22 23:46:57 Length: 546 chars
Natural gas prices have experienced volatility recently, initially peaking at $3.50 before retreating, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline to the $3.247 mark. This fluctuation reflects extremes in the market, where $2.92 was deemed too low and $3.50 too high. Weather forecasts have influenced these movements, driving prices up on colder outlooks but leading to declines as warmer forecasts emerged. The absence of CFTC data since September raises uncertainties about market positioning, making upcoming storage data critical to watch.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.6 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.44
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.17

MA(20): $3.23

Current Price is 3.44, 9 day MA 3.17, 20 day MA 3.23

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0629

Signal: 0.0449

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 60.56

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 60.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,600

Avg (20d): 178,583

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 83.56

%D: 80.12

Stochastic %K: 83.56, %D: 80.12. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.6

+DI: 32.93

-DI: 19.19

ADX: 18.6 (+DI: 32.93, -DI: 19.19). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -16.44

Williams %R: -16.44 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.64

Middle: 3.23

Lower: 2.81

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.64, Middle: 3.23, Lower: 2.81

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 104.6 105.2 101.5 100.9
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.2 110.1 107.5 106.6
Industrial Demand 23.4 21.8 22.4 22.53
Electric Power Demand 31.7 35.0 37.7 33.83
Residential & Commercial 20.4 19.0 10.9 13.27
LNG Exports 16.9 16.0 12.7 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
Total Demand 105.6 105.0 96.6 94.57
Supply/Demand Balance 4.6 5.1 10.9 12.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 11.4, CDD: 3.4)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 16.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 19.5)

South

Heating dominated (HDD: 4.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 17.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 19.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 116.5
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 15.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 112.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 4.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 4.0
Total CDD: 74.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 17.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 111.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 18.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 103.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.05
Daily: 0.12 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.66 (0.67%)

US_10Y

3.95
Daily: -0.01 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.58%)

SP500

6699.4
Daily: -35.95 (-0.53%)
Weekly: 70.33 (1.06%)

VIX

18.6
Daily: 0.73 (4.09%)
Weekly: -6.71 (-26.51%)

GOLD

4109.7
Daily: 22.0 (0.54%)
Weekly: -170.5 (-3.98%)

COPPER

5.01
Daily: 0.08 (1.69%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.12%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.944 EUR/MWh (+0.038). JKM prices increased to 11.215 USD/MMBtu (+0.165). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.271 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.944

+0.038

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-22

JKM Prices

11.215

+0.165

Front month: DEC 25

As of 2025-10-22

JKM-TTF Spread

0.271

2.48%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-22

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
10.94
11.21
NOV 25
11.05
11.27
DEC 25
11.12
11.22
JAN 26
11.15
10.90
FEB 26
11.01
10.36
MAR 26
10.55
10.32
APR 26
10.40
10.43
MAY 26
10.39
10.59
JUN 26
10.41
10.72
JUL 26
10.47
10.78
AUG 26
10.55
10.79
SEP 26
10.62
11.03
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.944
DEC 25 11.052
JAN 26 11.119
FEB 26 11.154
MAR 26 11.009
APR 26 10.551
MAY 26 10.402
JUN 26 10.389
JUL 26 10.409
AUG 26 10.467
SEP 26 10.553
OCT 26 10.623
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
DEC 25 11.215
JAN 26 11.270
FEB 26 11.220
MAR 26 10.900
APR 26 10.360
MAY 26 10.320
JUN 26 10.425
JUL 26 10.590
AUG 26 10.725
SEP 26 10.775
OCT 26 10.795
NOV 26 11.030

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.25
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 74
Last Updated: 2025-10-22 23:47:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (3 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.44
Closest Support: $3.38 1.74% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.59 4.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38 Support
1.0 $3.59 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-22 23:47:54
Next Trading Day: UP 0.79%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-23 $3.48 $3.2 $3.75
2025-10-24 $3.48 $3.2 $3.75
2025-10-25 $3.44 $3.17 $3.72
2025-10-26 $3.44 $3.17 $3.71
2025-10-27 $3.44 $3.17 $3.72

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.79% for the next trading day (2025-10-23), reaching $3.48.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.1% between 2025-10-23 and 2025-10-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a neutral stance with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.38, while resistance is at 3.59. Traders should be aware of potential price fluctuations as the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.79%, with a range between 3.2 and 3.75.

The overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.450. This suggests a cautious approach to trading strategies, especially in light of the low cooling demand and moderate heating demand expected.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 4.60 BCFD with a slight decrease of -0.50. Producers should consider this change in production planning, as the bearish market sentiment could impact pricing strategies.

The weather outlook indicates a predominance of heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions, which may affect natural gas consumption patterns. Hedging strategies should account for potential fluctuations in demand due to seasonal changes.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the current weather outlook suggesting moderate heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The low cooling demand could lead to stable prices in the short term, but the bearish sentiment in the market suggests ongoing uncertainty.

It may be prudent for consumers to explore hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, especially given the fluctuating supply dynamics highlighted by the fundamental balance.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.450 across various sectors. The fundamental balance at 4.60 BCFD indicates a slight contraction, which could influence future pricing strategies.

Key drivers include the weather outlook, which shows strong heating demand in several regions, and the ML price forecast suggesting a slight upward trend. Analysts should monitor these factors closely as they may indicate shifts in market dynamics moving forward.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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