Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-20 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/20/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Traders and news are talking about cooler forecasts on the 15 day weather that are cooler - these reports “aren’t bullish” but are showing that we should not be as bearish as the prices are showing. This is a theme we have been talking about for two weeks - that we should see some type of stability and recovery. The gap up leads me to believe this was a triggered short covering - but in many ways we are flying blind as the CFTC reports are not being published as a result of the US government budget shutdown. The volume today was one of the highest we have seen since we fell from 3.525 - and all signs point to a recovery to that point. The levels I’m watching: 3.449 as the near term target. 3.342 and 3.247 are support with 3.449 and 3.525 as resistance. I would expect tomorrow to cool off unless there are still nervous shorts - an upside stretch may be tested before we settle back to 3.247.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-20 23:46:32 Length: 531 chars
Natural gas prices have rebounded over 5% recently, driven by forecasts of cooler weather, which has traders feeling a bit warmer. Despite earlier bearish sentiment, the current weather outlook suggests potential stability, with a near-term target of 3.449. Support levels are noted at 3.342 and 3.247, while resistance hovers around 3.449 and 3.525. However, the absence of CFTC reports due to the government shutdown leaves some uncertainty. Keep an eye on short positions as they can influence price movement in the coming days.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.6 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.39
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.13

MA(20): $3.17

Current Price is 3.39, 9 day MA 3.13, 20 day MA 3.17

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.023

Signal: 0.0385

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 59.67

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 59.67 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,220

Avg (20d): 161,775

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 71.82

%D: 30.28

Stochastic %K: 71.82, %D: 30.28. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.33

+DI: 32.29

-DI: 20.92

ADX: 17.33 (+DI: 32.29, -DI: 20.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -28.18

Williams %R: -28.18 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.6

Middle: 3.17

Lower: 2.73

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.6, Middle: 3.17, Lower: 2.73

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 104.6 105.2 101.5 100.9
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.2 110.1 107.5 106.6
Industrial Demand 23.4 21.8 22.4 22.53
Electric Power Demand 31.7 35.0 37.7 33.83
Residential & Commercial 20.4 19.0 10.9 13.27
LNG Exports 16.9 16.0 12.7 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
Total Demand 105.6 105.0 96.6 94.57
Supply/Demand Balance 4.6 5.1 10.9 12.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 7.5, CDD: 4.7)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 10.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 110.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 15.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 79.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 111.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 98.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 65.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.72
Daily: 0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly: -0.33 (-0.34%)

US_10Y

3.99
Daily: -0.02 (-0.52%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.9%)

SP500

6735.13
Daily: 71.12 (1.07%)
Weekly: 90.82 (1.37%)

VIX

18.23
Daily: -2.55 (-12.27%)
Weekly: -2.58 (-12.4%)

GOLD

4366.2
Daily: 176.3 (4.21%)
Weekly: 227.5 (5.5%)

COPPER

5.05
Daily: 0.12 (2.44%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.44%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.921 EUR/MWh (-0.087). JKM prices remained stable to 11.016 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.095 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.921

-0.087

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-20

JKM Prices

11.016

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-20

JKM-TTF Spread

0.095

0.87%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-20

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.2
10.92
11.02
NOV 25
10.96
11.14
DEC 25
11.03
11.19
JAN 26
11.05
11.12
FEB 26
10.90
10.80
MAR 26
10.50
10.32
APR 26
10.34
10.24
MAY 26
10.34
10.36
JUN 26
10.37
10.53
JUL 26
10.43
10.67
AUG 26
10.50
10.71
SEP 26
10.57
10.77
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.921
DEC 25 10.962
JAN 26 11.029
FEB 26 11.050
MAR 26 10.904
APR 26 10.498
MAY 26 10.341
JUN 26 10.335
JUL 26 10.371
AUG 26 10.426
SEP 26 10.499
OCT 26 10.575
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.016
DEC 25 11.145
JAN 26 11.185
FEB 26 11.125
MAR 26 10.805
APR 26 10.325
MAY 26 10.245
JUN 26 10.360
JUL 26 10.530
AUG 26 10.670
SEP 26 10.710
OCT 26 10.765

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.1
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-10-20 23:47:27

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.4

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.39
Closest Support: $3.38 0.29% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.59 5.9% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38 Support
1.0 $3.59 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.4
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-20 23:47:28
Next Trading Day: DOWN 1.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-21 $3.36 $3.08 $3.63
2025-10-22 $3.37 $3.1 $3.65
2025-10-23 $3.39 $3.12 $3.67
2025-10-24 $3.39 $3.11 $3.67
2025-10-25 $3.36 $3.08 $3.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.15% for the next trading day (2025-10-21), reaching $3.36.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-21 and 2025-10-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market data suggests a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.38 and resistance is at 3.59. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 1.15%, with a trading range of 3.08 to 3.63.

With fundamental balance at 4.60 BCFD and a decrease of 0.50, traders should monitor for potential volatility around the support and resistance levels. The weather outlook suggests moderate heating demand, which may influence short-term price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current fundamental balance of 4.60 BCFD indicates a slight contraction in supply, which could necessitate adjustments in production planning. The neutral sentiment (-0.100) reflects cautious market conditions, particularly for crude oil due to concerns over a potential supply glut.

Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and maintain operational efficiency amid market volatility.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers can anticipate potential cost fluctuations as demand patterns shift. The fundamental balance at 4.60 BCFD suggests a stable supply, but the decrease in balance may pose reliability risks.

It is advisable for consumers to review procurement strategies to ensure stable pricing and supply reliability, particularly in light of the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a neutral sentiment, with mixed signals from both technical and fundamental indicators. The fundamental balance of 4.60 BCFD reflects a slight tightening in supply, while the weather outlook emphasizes heating demand across key regions.

Crude oil sentiment remains bearish due to supply concerns, while natural gas shows a more positive outlook. Analysts should watch for potential shifts that could influence market dynamics, particularly with the anticipated price decline.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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