Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-19 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/19/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of $3 which opened up the dip to 2.937 but I want to point out that while the forward weather is bearish - we have erased 2% of our storage overhang vs the 5 year average (to 4.3%). The Nat Gas supply and LNG exports are painting a very bullish picture - while demand is showing a paltry response for the forecasts. We still have 25 days until EOS - which looks like my 3.85 EOS might be a bit too aggressive…..we shale see :) Near term I am watching weather but more importantly LNG and supply - those are setting the stage for a potential volatile winter and I think we’ll see a sharp upward move in Q4. For now - I think we go down to 2.924 and possibly extend down to 2.715 (even though fundamentally I think we ought to be at a floor here - supply is a concern and the demand weakness is likely short lived).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-19 23:46:19 Length: 558 chars
Natural gas prices recently dipped below the key $3 mark, reaching $2.937, despite a 2% reduction in storage overhang compared to the 5-year average. While current supply and LNG exports suggest a bullish trend, demand remains lackluster. With just 25 days until end-of-season (EOS), the aggressive target of $3.85 may need reevaluation. Watch for fluctuating weather patterns and supply dynamics, which could lead to volatility this winter. Short term, prices may test support at $2.924 or even $2.715, but a bounce back is possible as fundamentals improve.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.6 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.14
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $3.11

MA(20): $3.15

Current Price is 3.14, 9 day MA 3.11, 20 day MA 3.15

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0034

Signal: 0.0346

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.53

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.53 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,645

Avg (20d): 163,903

Ratio: 0.08

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 36.42

%D: 18.48

Stochastic %K: 36.42, %D: 18.48. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.99

+DI: 24.55

-DI: 23.31

ADX: 15.99 (+DI: 24.55, -DI: 23.31). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -63.58

Williams %R: -63.58 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.58

Middle: 3.15

Lower: 2.73

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.58, Middle: 3.15, Lower: 2.73

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 104.6 105.2 101.5 100.9
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.2 110.1 107.5 106.6
Industrial Demand 23.4 21.8 22.4 22.53
Electric Power Demand 31.7 35.0 37.7 33.83
Residential & Commercial 20.4 19.0 10.9 13.27
LNG Exports 16.9 16.0 12.7 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
Total Demand 105.6 105.0 96.6 94.57
Supply/Demand Balance 4.6 5.1 10.9 12.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 5.9, CDD: 3.3)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 11.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 7.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 9.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 7.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 96.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 9.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 62.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 106.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 9.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 93.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 65.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.45
Daily: 0.02 (0.02%)
Weekly: -0.6 (-0.6%)

US_10Y

4.01
Daily: 0.03 (0.78%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-1.09%)

SP500

6664.01
Daily: 34.94 (0.53%)
Weekly: 9.29 (0.14%)

VIX

20.78
Daily: -4.53 (-17.9%)
Weekly: 1.75 (9.2%)

GOLD

4263.2
Daily: 73.3 (1.75%)
Weekly: 124.5 (3.01%)

COPPER

5.05
Daily: 0.11 (2.31%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.31%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.921 EUR/MWh (-0.087). JKM prices remained stable to 11.016 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.095 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.921

-0.087

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-19

JKM Prices

11.016

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-19

JKM-TTF Spread

0.095

0.87%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-19

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.2
10.92
11.02
NOV 25
10.96
11.14
DEC 25
11.03
11.19
JAN 26
11.05
11.12
FEB 26
10.90
10.80
MAR 26
10.50
10.32
APR 26
10.34
10.24
MAY 26
10.34
10.36
JUN 26
10.37
10.53
JUL 26
10.43
10.67
AUG 26
10.50
10.71
SEP 26
10.57
10.77
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.921
DEC 25 10.962
JAN 26 11.029
FEB 26 11.050
MAR 26 10.904
APR 26 10.498
MAY 26 10.341
JUN 26 10.335
JUL 26 10.371
AUG 26 10.426
SEP 26 10.499
OCT 26 10.575
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.016
DEC 25 11.145
JAN 26 11.185
FEB 26 11.125
MAR 26 10.805
APR 26 10.325
MAY 26 10.245
JUN 26 10.360
JUL 26 10.530
AUG 26 10.670
SEP 26 10.710
OCT 26 10.765

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-10-19 23:47:10

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.14
Closest Support: $3.1 1.27% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.22 2.55% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99
0.5 $3.1 Support
0.618 $3.22 Resistance
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.01
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-19 23:47:11
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.47%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-18 $2.99 $2.76 $3.23
2025-10-19 $3.0 $2.76 $3.24
2025-10-20 $3.0 $2.77 $3.24
2025-10-21 $3.01 $2.77 $3.25
2025-10-22 $3.0 $2.77 $3.24

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.47% for the next trading day (2025-10-18), reaching $2.99.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-18 and 2025-10-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is bearish, with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.1 and resistance at 3.22. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.47%, suggesting short-term volatility. Watch for opportunities around these levels, especially if prices approach the support level, as this could trigger buying interest.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates a slight decrease in demand at 4.60 BCFD, which may impact production planning. The bearish sentiment in crude oil, especially with concerns over oversupply, could affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, particularly as the news sentiment surrounding crude oil remains negative.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a moderate heating demand forecasted and low cooling demand, consumers can expect stable supply reliability. However, the bearish market sentiment and slight fluctuations in natural gas prices may lead to cost variations. It is advisable for consumers to monitor these trends closely and consider strategic procurement or hedging options to manage potential price increases.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical indicators and negative sentiment, particularly in crude oil. The fundamental balance shows a slight decrease in demand, while weather forecasts indicate a predominance of heating needs. Analysts should focus on the implications of these factors for future price movements, especially considering the potential for shifts if demand patterns change or if weather forecasts evolve.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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