Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-17 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/17/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of $3 which opened up the dip to 2.937 but I want to point out that while the forward weather is bearish - we have erased 2% of our storage overhang vs the 5 year average (to 4.3%). The Nat Gas supply and LNG exports are painting a very bullish picture - while demand is showing a paltry response for the forecasts. We still have 25 days until EOS - which looks like my 3.85 EOS might be a bit too aggressive…..we shale see :) Near term I am watching weather but more importantly LNG and supply - those are setting the stage for a potential volatile winter and I think we’ll see a sharp upward move in Q4. For now - I think we go down to 2.924 and possibly extend down to 2.715 (even though fundamentally I think we ought to be at a floor here - supply is a concern and the demand weakness is likely short lived).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-17 23:46:24 Length: 517 chars
Natural gas prices recently dipped below $3 but have since rebounded as weather forecasts cool, providing some support. Despite a 2% reduction in storage overhang compared to the five-year average, demand remains weak, which raises concerns. Current prices are influenced by oversupply, with support levels expected around $2.924 and possibly as low as $2.715. While LNG exports and supply trends hint at a potential uptick in volatility this winter, the market remains cautious as we head into the end of the season.

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.6 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.0
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.15

MA(20): $3.14

Current Price is 3.0, 9 day MA 3.15, 20 day MA 3.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0

Signal: 0.0423

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.98

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.98 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 120,439

Avg (20d): 169,384

Ratio: 0.71

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 15.46

%D: 15.49

Stochastic %K: 15.46, %D: 15.49. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.02

+DI: 18.75

-DI: 25.36

ADX: 17.02 (+DI: 18.75, -DI: 25.36). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -84.54

Williams %R: -84.54 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.14

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 104.6 105.2 101.5 100.9
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.2 110.1 107.5 106.6
Industrial Demand 23.4 21.8 22.4 22.53
Electric Power Demand 31.7 35.0 37.7 33.83
Residential & Commercial 20.4 19.0 10.9 13.27
LNG Exports 16.9 16.0 12.7 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
Total Demand 105.6 105.0 96.6 94.57
Supply/Demand Balance 4.6 5.1 10.9 12.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 7.6, CDD: 3.9)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 13.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 12.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 82.0
Total CDD: 4.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 14.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 55.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 103.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 104.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 49.0
Total CDD: 1.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.54
Daily: 0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly: -0.73 (-0.73%)

US_10Y

4.01
Daily: 0.03 (0.78%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-1.09%)

SP500

6664.01
Daily: 34.94 (0.53%)
Weekly: 9.29 (0.14%)

VIX

20.78
Daily: -4.53 (-17.9%)
Weekly: 1.75 (9.2%)

GOLD

4267.9
Daily: -12.3 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 159.3 (3.88%)

COPPER

5.0
Daily: 0.04 (0.8%)
Weekly: -0.1 (-2.02%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.008 EUR/MWh (+0.114). JKM prices remained stable to 11.016 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.008 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.008

+0.114

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-17

JKM Prices

11.016

+0.000

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-17

JKM-TTF Spread

0.008

0.07%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-17

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.6
10.3
11.01
11.02
NOV 25
11.16
11.20
DEC 25
11.22
11.29
JAN 26
11.24
11.25
FEB 26
11.09
10.95
MAR 26
10.65
10.44
APR 26
10.50
10.39
MAY 26
10.48
10.48
JUN 26
10.52
10.64
JUL 26
10.58
10.79
AUG 26
10.66
10.83
SEP 26
10.72
10.88
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 11.008
DEC 25 11.158
JAN 26 11.219
FEB 26 11.241
MAR 26 11.085
APR 26 10.648
MAY 26 10.496
JUN 26 10.485
JUL 26 10.518
AUG 26 10.577
SEP 26 10.656
OCT 26 10.723
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.016
DEC 25 11.200
JAN 26 11.295
FEB 26 11.250
MAR 26 10.945
APR 26 10.440
MAY 26 10.390
JUN 26 10.485
JUL 26 10.645
AUG 26 10.785
SEP 26 10.830
OCT 26 10.875

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.55
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 84
Last Updated: 2025-10-17 23:47:22

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (11 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Weather (6 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.0
Closest Support: $2.99 0.33% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.1 3.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99 Support
0.5 $3.1 Resistance
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-17 23:47:22
Next Trading Day: UP 0.68%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-17 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-18 $2.95 $2.71 $3.19
2025-10-19 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-20 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-21 $2.96 $2.73 $3.2

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.68% for the next trading day (2025-10-17), reaching $2.96.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-17 and 2025-10-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a Fibonacci support at 2.99 and resistance at 3.1. The fundamental balance is currently at 4.60 BCFD with a decrease of 0.50. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the overall market sentiment of -0.550. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations within the 2.72 to 3.19 range as indicated by the ML price forecast predicting an increase of 0.68%.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment of -0.550 may necessitate a review of hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. The fundamental shift shows a decrease in supply, which may support price stabilization if demand holds. Producers should consider adjusting production plans based on regional heating demand, particularly in the Northeast (HDD: 13.0) and Midwest (HDD: 12.0), where heating demand is expected to dominate.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The moderate heating demand forecast indicates that residential and commercial sectors may experience increased costs during this heating season. It's advisable to assess supply reliability and consider procurement strategies that hedge against rising prices, especially in the face of 4.60 BCFD supply levels.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently shaped by a predominantly bearish sentiment with a score of -0.550, influenced by factors such as supply reductions and heating demand patterns. The fundamental balance at 4.60 BCFD reflects a tightening supply scenario, while the ML price forecast points towards a slight uptick in prices. Analysts should closely monitor regional demand shifts and sentiment trends to anticipate potential market adjustments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved