Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-16 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/16/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of $3 which opened up the dip to 2.937 but I want to point out that while the forward weather is bearish - we have erased 2% of our storage overhang vs the 5 year average (to 4.3%). The Nat Gas supply and LNG exports are painting a very bullish picture - while demand is showing a paltry response for the forecasts. We still have 25 days until EOS - which looks like my 3.85 EOS might be a bit too aggressive…..we shale see :) Near term I am watching weather but more importantly LNG and supply - those are setting the stage for a potential volatile winter and I think we’ll see a sharp upward move in Q4. For now - I think we go down to 2.924 and possibly extend down to 2.715 (even though fundamentally I think we ought to be at a floor here - supply is a concern and the demand weakness is likely short lived).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-16 23:46:54 Length: 528 chars
Natural gas prices recently dipped below the crucial $3 mark, hitting a low of 2.937, influenced by mild weather and ample storage, which has reduced the overhang to 4.3% below the 5-year average. Despite bearish forecasts, LNG exports and supply dynamics suggest potential bullish momentum as we approach winter. Watch for volatility as winter nears; a sharp upward move is anticipated in Q4. Key levels to monitor are 2.924 for potential support and a longer-term floor around 2.715. Stay tuned for weather and supply updates!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.6 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.91
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.18

MA(20): $3.13

Current Price is 2.91, 9 day MA 3.18, 20 day MA 3.13

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0088

Signal: 0.0524

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.87

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,805

Avg (20d): 162,545

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 0.3

%D: 19.67

Stochastic %K: 0.3, %D: 19.67. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.27

+DI: 20.34

-DI: 26.69

ADX: 17.27 (+DI: 20.34, -DI: 26.69). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -99.7

Williams %R: -99.7 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.13

Lower: 2.67

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.13, Lower: 2.67

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 104.6 105.2 101.5 100.9
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.2 110.1 107.5 106.6
Industrial Demand 23.4 21.8 22.4 22.53
Electric Power Demand 31.7 35.0 37.7 33.83
Residential & Commercial 20.4 19.0 10.9 13.27
LNG Exports 16.9 16.0 12.7 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.7
Total Demand 105.6 105.0 96.6 94.57
Supply/Demand Balance 4.6 5.1 10.9 12.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 7.7, CDD: 3.8)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 11.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 15.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 13.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 15.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 66.0
Total CDD: 2.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 13.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 59.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 129.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 13.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 102.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 48.0
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: -0.61 (-0.62%)
Weekly: -0.8 (-0.81%)

US_10Y

3.98
Daily: -0.07 (-1.73%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.85%)

SP500

6629.07
Daily: -41.99 (-0.63%)
Weekly: 76.56 (1.17%)

VIX

25.31
Daily: 4.67 (22.63%)
Weekly: 3.65 (16.85%)

GOLD

4371.6
Daily: 194.7 (4.66%)
Weekly: 395.7 (9.95%)

COPPER

4.96
Daily: -0.01 (-0.22%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.32%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.894 EUR/MWh (+0.019). JKM prices decreased to 11.016 USD/MMBtu (-0.014). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.122 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.894

+0.019

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-16

JKM Prices

11.016

-0.014

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-16

JKM-TTF Spread

0.122

1.12%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-16

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.89
11.02
NOV 25
10.94
11.04
DEC 25
11.02
11.18
JAN 26
11.06
11.13
FEB 26
10.92
10.85
MAR 26
10.52
10.39
APR 26
10.38
10.35
MAY 26
10.38
10.44
JUN 26
10.40
10.60
JUL 26
10.46
10.74
AUG 26
10.54
10.78
SEP 26
10.61
10.82
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.894
DEC 25 10.939
JAN 26 11.024
FEB 26 11.056
MAR 26 10.918
APR 26 10.522
MAY 26 10.380
JUN 26 10.377
JUL 26 10.402
AUG 26 10.455
SEP 26 10.537
OCT 26 10.607
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.016
DEC 25 11.045
JAN 26 11.175
FEB 26 11.130
MAR 26 10.845
APR 26 10.395
MAY 26 10.350
JUN 26 10.440
JUL 26 10.600
AUG 26 10.740
SEP 26 10.780
OCT 26 10.820

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.5
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 88
Last Updated: 2025-10-16 23:47:47

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.4

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Weather (6 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.91
Closest Support: $2.85 2.06% below current price
Closest Resistance: $2.99 2.75% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85 Support
0.382 $2.99 Resistance
0.5 $3.1
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-16 23:47:47
Next Trading Day: UP 0.68%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-17 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-18 $2.95 $2.71 $3.19
2025-10-19 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-20 $2.96 $2.72 $3.19
2025-10-21 $2.96 $2.73 $3.2

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.68% for the next trading day (2025-10-17), reaching $2.96.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-17 and 2025-10-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~16.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook, with a Fibonacci support level at 2.85 and resistance at 2.99. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.68%, with a range of 2.72 to 3.19. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the overall market sentiment is also negative, which could lead to short-term price fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 4.60 BCFD with a slight decrease of -0.50. Producers should consider this when planning production levels as the news sentiment surrounding crude oil is negative, particularly due to concerns over supply gluts. Hedging strategies may need to adapt to this market sentiment to mitigate risks from potential price declines.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating a dominance of heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in heating fuels. The negative sentiment in the market may also signal risks to supply reliability, warranting consideration for procurement strategies or hedging against price increases in the near term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market picture is characterized by a negative overall sentiment and a fundamental balance that suggests a tightening supply scenario. The weather outlook indicates increased heating demand, which could shift market dynamics. Analysts should monitor these factors closely as they may influence future price movements and overall market stability.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved