Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-14 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/14/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas forecasts are bearish - yet we are still set for potential upside volatility this winter - forecasts have led to a likelihood of volatility - that doesn’t mean that we will have a ton of polar vortexes and it also doesn’t mean we will have NO polar vortexes - it means the jet stream will allow as many or as few polar vortexes as the weather patterns allow - translation - it could be FIVE or it could be ZERO. Let’s just say, I would not want to enter the winter short - as this could be set up for upside volatility. This week is all about 3.127 - if the bulls recapture that level AND 3.247 then we could see a potential uptrend re-emerge…but as it stands right now - we are likely headed down to “fill the gap” from the rollover at 2.924. Tuesday’s trading tested the $3 support and successfully bounced - although on low volume….this is a TBC as this was not convincing with a $3 support and 3.127 resistance.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-14 23:47:12 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are currently on a rollercoaster, influenced by a bearish weather outlook and mixed forecasts for winter volatility. As of now, prices hover around $3, with support holding but showing signs of weakness. The market's fate hinges on whether bulls can reclaim the crucial levels of $3.127 and $3.247. While forecasts suggest potential upside volatility this winter, the path remains uncertain—ranging from no polar vortexes to several. Traders should remain ca...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.02
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.27

MA(20): $3.13

Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 3.27, 20 day MA 3.13

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0479

Signal: 0.0711

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.9

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.9 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,369

Avg (20d): 163,189

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 28.73

%D: 37.07

Stochastic %K: 28.73, %D: 37.07. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.28

+DI: 22.23

-DI: 24.4

ADX: 18.28 (+DI: 22.23, -DI: 24.4). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -71.27

Williams %R: -71.27 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.13

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.13, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.2 105.8 101.7 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.63
Total Supply 110.1 110.8 107.4 106.63
Industrial Demand 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.17
Electric Power Demand 35.0 37.0 38.6 35.13
Residential & Commercial 19.0 11.5 9.4 10.9
LNG Exports 16.0 15.8 12.4 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 105.0 99.9 95.9 93.33
Supply/Demand Balance 5.1 10.9 11.5 13.3

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: HEATING dominated (HDD: 6.0, CDD: 2.3)
Residential/Commercial: MODERATE heating demand expected
Power Generation: LOW cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 12.0)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 5.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 46.0
Total CDD: 0

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 12.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 60.5
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 116.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 72.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 11.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 48.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.88
Daily: -0.39 (-0.39%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.03%)

US_10Y

4.02
Daily: -0.03 (-0.72%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.59%)

SP500

6644.31
Daily: -10.41 (-0.16%)
Weekly: -109.41 (-1.62%)

VIX

20.81
Daily: 1.78 (9.35%)
Weekly: 4.51 (27.67%)

GOLD

4203.0
Daily: 94.4 (2.3%)
Weekly: 159.7 (3.95%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: -0.08 (-1.51%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.45%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.795 EUR/MWh (-0.155). JKM prices decreased to 11.040 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.245 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.795

-0.155

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-14

JKM Prices

11.040

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-14

JKM-TTF Spread

0.245

2.27%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-14

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.1
10.9
10.6
10.4
10.1
10.79
11.04
NOV 25
10.79
10.87
DEC 25
10.90
11.04
JAN 26
10.94
10.99
FEB 26
10.79
10.68
MAR 26
10.42
10.28
APR 26
10.29
10.22
MAY 26
10.28
10.30
JUN 26
10.32
10.49
JUL 26
10.38
10.63
AUG 26
10.46
10.68
SEP 26
10.54
10.71
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.795
DEC 25 10.793
JAN 26 10.902
FEB 26 10.935
MAR 26 10.792
APR 26 10.420
MAY 26 10.285
JUN 26 10.282
JUL 26 10.321
AUG 26 10.376
SEP 26 10.458
OCT 26 10.540
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.040
DEC 25 10.870
JAN 26 11.040
FEB 26 10.990
MAR 26 10.680
APR 26 10.275
MAY 26 10.225
JUN 26 10.305
JUL 26 10.490
AUG 26 10.635
SEP 26 10.675
OCT 26 10.705

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-10-14 23:48:04

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Weather (4 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.02
Closest Support: $2.99 0.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.1 2.65% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.85
0.382 $2.99 Support
0.5 $3.1 Resistance
0.618 $3.22
0.786 $3.38
1.0 $3.59

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.85
1.618 $4.18
2.0 $4.55
2.618 $5.14

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.03
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-14 23:48:05
Next Trading Day: UP 0.6%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-15 $3.05 $2.81 $3.28
2025-10-16 $3.04 $2.81 $3.28
2025-10-17 $3.06 $2.82 $3.29
2025-10-18 $3.05 $2.82 $3.29
2025-10-19 $3.06 $2.83 $3.3

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.60% for the next trading day (2025-10-15), reaching $3.05.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-15 and 2025-10-19.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci support level at 2.99 and a resistance level at 3.1. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.60%, with a range of 2.81 to 3.28. This indicates possible short-term trading opportunities, but caution is advised due to the overall market sentiment.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows a decrease to 5.10 BCFD, suggesting a need for careful production planning. The news sentiment surrounding crude oil is concerning, with a score of -0.600, influenced by factors such as supply surplus outlook and US-China trade tensions. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from potential price volatility.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand across residential and commercial sectors, with low cooling demand expected. This may lead to cost fluctuations in natural gas procurement. Consumers should prepare for potential supply reliability risks, especially with the market sentiment indicating challenges ahead. Proactive procurement strategies may be beneficial to secure favorable pricing.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market presents a bearish outlook driven primarily by negative sentiment in crude oil and a declining fundamental balance. The fundamental balance at 5.10 BCFD reflects tightening supply dynamics, while the weather outlook suggests higher heating demand than cooling. Analysts should closely watch the ML price forecasts and consider how geopolitical factors may influence market shifts in the coming days.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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