Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-11 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/11/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Nat Gas broke the key level of 3.247 - everything points down to 2.924 as the next target which is a logical step in setting up the stage for a volatile winter. The Gaza deal is giving Nat Gas momentum for a risk-off trade for Friday - which broke down below the last line of support for this recent bull move at 3.247. Technically all signs point down. Fundamentals have tightened up quite a bit and look to be tight until late October - this could squeeze storage to a level that gets traders nervous for the winter (which they should be). This winter is not El Nino or La Nina - meaning that we are set to have either zero polar vortexes or five??? It means we will need to be ready for anything - of course we are - we follow Nat Gas!!! LOL!! But that may be ahead of where we are - 3.8 if my EOS number - most analysts are 3.9+ (including Bill - so maybe I’m wrong). Most are going to be watching storage as the barometer for the rest of the month. I’m watching the fundamentals (which are tight right now and bullish) and technicals (which are bearish right now). 3.127 is the last line of hope for bulls - if that breaks 2.92 will be in the cards…if that holds - bulls have the chance to recapture 3.247 and then go back up to 3.449 again. It looks like we are going to drop down further and then re-set for the winter.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-11 23:46:39 Length: 480 chars
Natural Gas prices have recently broken below the key support level of 3.247, with 2.924 now the target. This decline is fueled by ample storage and warmer weather, leading to a cautious market sentiment. Despite tight fundamentals, traders are bracing for a volatile winter with unpredictable weather patterns. The next critical support lies at 3.127; if breached, a dip to 2.92 is likely. Watch storage data closely as it will guide sentiment moving forward. Stay alert—this ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.1 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.11
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.35

MA(20): $3.14

Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 3.35, 20 day MA 3.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0849

Signal: 0.0788

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.29

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.29 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 198,680

Avg (20d): 169,434

Ratio: 1.17

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 41.08

%D: 57.07

Stochastic %K: 41.08, %D: 57.07. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.65

+DI: 24.63

-DI: 22.92

ADX: 20.65 (+DI: 24.63, -DI: 22.92). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -58.92

Williams %R: -58.92 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.59

Middle: 3.14

Lower: 2.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.59, Middle: 3.14, Lower: 2.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.2 105.8 101.7 100.87
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.0 5.7 5.63
Total Supply 110.1 110.8 107.4 106.63
Industrial Demand 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.17
Electric Power Demand 35.0 37.0 38.6 35.13
Residential & Commercial 19.0 11.5 9.4 10.9
LNG Exports 16.0 15.8 12.4 12.07
Mexico Exports 6.4 6.8 6.7 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 105.0 99.9 95.9 93.33
Supply/Demand Balance 5.1 10.9 11.5 13.3

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 4.6, CDD: 5.1)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 9.8)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 3.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 11.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 3.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 24.5
Total CDD: 0.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 11.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 70.0
Total CDD: 0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 11.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 132.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 86.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0
Total HDD: 51.5
Total CDD: 0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.98
Daily: -0.56 (-0.56%)
Weekly: 0.87 (0.89%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

3975.9
Daily: 29.6 (0.75%)
Weekly: 27.4 (0.69%)

COPPER

4.85
Daily: -0.23 (-4.47%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-2.78%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.950 EUR/MWh (-0.043). JKM prices decreased to 11.060 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.110 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.950

-0.043

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-11

JKM Prices

11.060

-0.020

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-11

JKM-TTF Spread

0.110

1.00%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-11

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.3
11.1
10.8
10.6
10.3
10.95
11.06
NOV 25
11.06
11.03
DEC 25
11.16
11.23
JAN 26
11.19
11.20
FEB 26
11.03
10.89
MAR 26
10.63
10.46
APR 26
10.49
10.39
MAY 26
10.48
10.47
JUN 26
10.51
10.65
JUL 26
10.57
10.79
AUG 26
10.65
10.85
SEP 26
10.72
10.87
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.950
DEC 25 11.061
JAN 26 11.163
FEB 26 11.189
MAR 26 11.033
APR 26 10.628
MAY 26 10.487
JUN 26 10.481
JUL 26 10.511
AUG 26 10.566
SEP 26 10.647
OCT 26 10.725
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.060
DEC 25 11.030
JAN 26 11.230
FEB 26 11.195
MAR 26 10.890
APR 26 10.455
MAY 26 10.390
JUN 26 10.470
JUL 26 10.655
AUG 26 10.795
SEP 26 10.845
OCT 26 10.865

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.75
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 69
Last Updated: 2025-10-11 23:47:35

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

-0.8

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.11
Closest Support: $3.01 3.22% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.12 0.32% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01 Support
0.5 $3.12 Resistance
0.618 $3.24
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.63
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.11
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-11 23:47:36
Next Trading Day: UP 0.34%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-11 $3.12 $2.88 $3.35
2025-10-12 $3.09 $2.86 $3.33
2025-10-13 $3.1 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-14 $3.1 $2.87 $3.34
2025-10-15 $3.12 $2.89 $3.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2025-10-11), reaching $3.12.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-11 and 2025-10-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~15.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a neutral outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.01 and resistance at 3.12. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.34% with a range between 2.88 and 3.35. Traders should be cautious of volatility given the overall bearish sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.725.

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 5.10 BCFD, indicating a slight decrease, which may affect production planning. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to cautious hedging strategies. Producers should monitor the weather outlook as the demand for heating remains low, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, potentially impacting gas sales.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook favoring cooling demand in the South and West, consumers may experience stable supply but should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the bearish market sentiment. The current fundamental balance suggests adequate supply, but increased demand in cooling regions could impact pricing. Consideration for procurement strategies is advised.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by a fundamental balance showing a decline and a neutral technical score. The weather outlook suggests a mixed demand scenario, with cooling dominating in certain regions. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast and monitor geopolitical factors that may shift market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.