Natural Gas Radar

2025-10-04 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/04/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
So we laid out 3.449 as the gap fill on Monday as a possibility, Tuesday after the break above 3.247 identified a high likelihood of the 3.449 gap fill, and Wednesday we reached the target - wow that was pretty quick! Now I am looking at two levels: 3.599 as the next target and 3.247 as the downside target if 3.50 is not held…after reaching the gap fill - the stall out could be a sign of exhaustion after the short covering rally (at least that’s what folks are saying - we won’t know for sure until the COT report comes out). Fundamentally - 3.247 and higher is validated by the current supply/demand and while I am still sitting at 3.8 TCF storage there are some analysts that I respect that are calling for 4.0 TCF which would give credence to another move down below $3 again. For now - I think we are in a large range of 3.247 to 3.5999

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-04 23:47:17 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices recently soared to fill the gap at $3.449, but are now facing headwinds from mild mid-October temperatures and high supply, which could stall further gains. Key levels to watch are $3.599 for potential upside and $3.247 for downside support. Despite a small inventory rise, analysts are divided, with some predicting storage could hit 4.0 TCF, possibly dragging prices below $3 again. The market is in a range, and traders should keep an eye on demand trends...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.4 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.9 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.32
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $3.14

MA(20): $3.06

Current Price is 3.32, 9 day MA 3.14, 20 day MA 3.06

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0895

Signal: 0.0333

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 60.81

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 60.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 259,354

Avg (20d): 165,420

Ratio: 1.57

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 67.9

%D: 82.7

Stochastic %K: 67.9, %D: 82.7. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.73

+DI: 33.92

-DI: 18.29

ADX: 19.73 (+DI: 33.92, -DI: 18.29). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -32.1

Williams %R: -32.1 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.46

Middle: 3.06

Lower: 2.66

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.46, Middle: 3.06, Lower: 2.66

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 105.8 106.7 101.2 100.53
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.6
Total Supply 110.8 111.7 107.2 106.23
Industrial Demand 22.0 22.1 21.8 21.83
Electric Power Demand 37.0 40.0 40.3 36.5
Residential & Commercial 11.5 8.8 8.9 10.13
LNG Exports 15.8 16.3 12.6 12.0
Mexico Exports 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.37
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 99.9 101.3 97.2 93.53
Supply/Demand Balance 10.9 10.4 10.0 12.7

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.7, CDD: 5.4)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 3.2)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 2.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 19.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 6.5
Total CDD: 21.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 2.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 17.0
Total CDD: 34.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 144.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 19.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 143.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 4.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 15.0
Total CDD: 27.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.72
Daily: -0.13 (-0.13%)
Weekly: -0.19 (-0.19%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

6715.79
Daily: 0.44 (0.01%)
Weekly: 54.58 (0.82%)

VIX

16.65
Daily: 0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.53 (3.29%)

GOLD

3880.8
Daily: 41.1 (1.07%)
Weekly: 59.9 (1.57%)

COPPER

5.06
Daily: 0.16 (3.27%)
Weekly: 0.22 (4.48%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.815 EUR/MWh (+0.017). JKM prices increased to 11.040 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.225 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.815

+0.017

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-04

JKM Prices

11.040

+0.015

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-10-04

JKM-TTF Spread

0.225

2.08%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-10-04

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.81
11.04
NOV 25
10.99
10.96
DEC 25
11.10
11.18
JAN 26
11.12
11.15
FEB 26
10.99
10.88
MAR 26
10.64
10.51
APR 26
10.51
10.46
MAY 26
10.53
10.55
JUN 26
10.56
10.72
JUL 26
10.62
10.86
AUG 26
10.71
10.92
SEP 26
10.79
10.96
OCT 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
NOV 25 10.815
DEC 25 10.992
JAN 26 11.095
FEB 26 11.122
MAR 26 10.992
APR 26 10.642
MAY 26 10.514
JUN 26 10.525
JUL 26 10.564
AUG 26 10.619
SEP 26 10.713
OCT 26 10.791
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.040
DEC 25 10.955
JAN 26 11.175
FEB 26 11.150
MAR 26 10.880
APR 26 10.505
MAY 26 10.455
JUN 26 10.555
JUL 26 10.725
AUG 26 10.855
SEP 26 10.920
OCT 26 10.965

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2025-10-04 23:48:10

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.32
Closest Support: $3.24 2.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.41 2.71% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13
0.618 $3.24 Support
0.786 $3.41 Resistance
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.32
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-04 23:48:11
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.63%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-04 $3.3 $3.09 $3.52
2025-10-05 $3.3 $3.09 $3.51
2025-10-06 $3.28 $3.06 $3.49
2025-10-07 $3.28 $3.07 $3.49
2025-10-08 $3.29 $3.08 $3.5

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.63% for the next trading day (2025-10-04), reaching $3.30.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-04 and 2025-10-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.500. This suggests a cautious approach in trading strategies. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.24, while resistance is at 3.41. Traders should monitor the price range forecasted at 3.09 to 3.52, as the ML forecast indicates a potential price drop of 0.63%. The convergence of high bearish sentiment and a neutral technical score suggests potential volatility in the near term, presenting both opportunities and risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows an increase to 10.90 BCFD, which may indicate a need for careful production planning. With bearish sentiment surrounding both supply and demand, producers should consider adjusting their output levels to mitigate risks associated with potential oversupply. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited in light of the current market dynamics, particularly given the concerns around global supply glut and weak demand reflected in news articles.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand in residential and commercial sectors, with moderate cooling demand expected for power generation. This could lead to stable supply reliability, but consumers should remain vigilant about procurement strategies, particularly in light of the bearish sentiment affecting pricing.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The overall market picture is dominated by bearish sentiment, with the latest news reflecting concerns over supply and demand imbalances. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase, but this is overshadowed by negative sentiment surrounding geopolitical factors and potential oversupply. Analysts should focus on how these driving factors could lead to shifts in market outlook, particularly as weather patterns suggest a cooling trend in demand across several regions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved