Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-26 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/26/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
We have the rollover from October contract to November - this looks to take us back into the $3+ market - this is where we should be frankly. There are two pesky technical gaps at $2.449 and $3.449 and as usual the Natural Gas drama queen is playing out the drama keeping us right in between hovering +/- $0.20 to $3 NG. My fair value estimate of Natural Gas is closer to $3.50 so fundamentally I am bullish because we have seen stalling supply for the entire year - the only reason we have had any supply growth is due to higher pressure gas (Haynesville/Utica) offsetting conventional declines alongside higher Gas to Oil ratios in the Permian (and no we don’t need MORE gas there). Looking at the November only chart - another run to 3.40 looks in order, yet I am watching 3.05 and 3.00 like a hawk as a break below there leaves us potentially dropping back down to 2.76. For the next 10 days I am bullish (pending tropical weather and power demand).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-26 23:46:33 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is currently navigating a rocky terrain with the October contract rollover, leading prices to hover around $3.00. Despite recent gains, the market faces technical gaps at $2.449 and $3.449, while my fair value estimate hovers closer to $3.50. With supply stagnation and increasing demand from higher pressure gas production, we could see a bullish trend in the near term, but watch closely for support levels at $3.05 and $3.00, as breaks below these could trigger ...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.18
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.96

MA(20): $3.0

Current Price is 3.18, 9 day MA 2.96, 20 day MA 3.0

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0079

Signal: -0.0154

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 60.56

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 60.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 154,811

Avg (20d): 145,867

Ratio: 1.06

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 102.27

%D: 51.15

Stochastic %K: 102.27, %D: 51.15. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.16

+DI: 18.09

-DI: 23.74

ADX: 14.16 (+DI: 18.09, -DI: 23.74). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 2.27

Williams %R: 2.27 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.2

Middle: 3.0

Lower: 2.8

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.2, Middle: 3.0, Lower: 2.8

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.8, CDD: 5.4)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 4.5)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 2.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 18.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 2.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 54.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 4.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 14.0
Total CDD: 52.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 116.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 18.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 137.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 4.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 13.0
Total CDD: 42.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: -0.37 (-0.37%)
Weekly: 0.85 (0.88%)

US_10Y

4.19
Daily: 0.01 (0.36%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.06%)

SP500

6643.7
Daily: 38.98 (0.59%)
Weekly: -50.05 (-0.75%)

VIX

15.29
Daily: -1.45 (-8.66%)
Weekly: -0.81 (-5.03%)

GOLD

3789.8
Daily: 52.9 (1.42%)
Weekly: 49.1 (1.31%)

COPPER

4.76
Daily: 0.06 (1.37%)
Weekly: 0.19 (4.19%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,626,777
Change: -11,903

Managed Money

-63,176
Change: -40,085
-3.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-4,944
Change: +8,712
-0.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

124,686
Change: +6,611
7.7% of OI

Other Reportables

-64,908
Change: +22,945
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-23
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.121 EUR/MWh (+0.017). JKM prices increased to 11.280 USD/MMBtu (+0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.159 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.121

+0.017

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-26

JKM Prices

11.280

+0.060

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-26

JKM-TTF Spread

0.159

1.43%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-26

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.7
11.4
11.2
10.9
10.7
11.12
11.28
OCT 25
11.28
11.38
NOV 25
11.42
11.62
DEC 25
11.52
11.58
JAN 26
11.53
11.30
FEB 26
11.37
10.85
MAR 26
10.95
10.77
APR 26
10.81
10.89
MAY 26
10.83
11.02
JUN 26
10.84
11.16
JUL 26
10.90
11.20
AUG 26
10.98
11.36
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.121
NOV 25 11.276
DEC 25 11.417
JAN 26 11.516
FEB 26 11.528
MAR 26 11.369
APR 26 10.953
MAY 26 10.807
JUN 26 10.833
JUL 26 10.844
AUG 26 10.900
SEP 26 10.984
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.280
DEC 25 11.375
JAN 26 11.615
FEB 26 11.580
MAR 26 11.305
APR 26 10.845
MAY 26 10.765
JUN 26 10.890
JUL 26 11.020
AUG 26 11.165
SEP 26 11.200
OCT 26 11.355

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.283
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 92
Last Updated: 2025-09-26 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.18
Closest Support: $3.13 1.57% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 1.89% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.9
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-26 23:47:34
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-26 $2.9 $2.76 $3.05
2025-09-27 $2.91 $2.77 $3.06
2025-09-28 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05
2025-09-29 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05
2025-09-30 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-09-26), reaching $2.90.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-26 and 2025-09-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical sentiment with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.13 and resistance at 3.24, suggesting limited price movement in the near term. The ML forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.02%, with a range between 2.76 to 3.05. Traders should watch for potential volatility as market sentiment is bullish overall, especially in natural gas and crude oil sectors, despite mixed demand signals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance shows a decrease of 2.90 BCFD with a ratio of 1.103, indicating a tightening supply situation. Producers may need to adjust production planning to align with the bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, driven by geopolitical concerns. The neutral technical outlook suggests cautious hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With a cooling-dominated weather outlook and low heating demand expected, consumers should remain vigilant regarding potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and electricity. The bearish sentiment in natural gas due to ample supply might provide some relief in pricing; however, producers' adjustments could influence market dynamics. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies to hedge against potential price spikes as geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Key drivers include a slight upward trend in prices, geopolitical risks affecting crude oil, and a cooling demand outlook. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may shift market dynamics. Analysts should monitor sentiment shifts closely, particularly in natural gas, as it could impact broader market conditions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved