Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-25 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/25/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
We have the rollover from October contract to November - this looks to take us back into the $3+ market - this is where we should be frankly. There are two pesky technical gaps at $2.449 and $3.449 and as usual the Natural Gas drama queen is playing out the drama keeping us right in between hovering +/- $0.20 to $3 NG. My fair value estimate of Natural Gas is closer to $3.50 so fundamentally I am bullish because we have seen stalling supply for the entire year - the only reason we have had any supply growth is due to higher pressure gas (Haynesville/Utica) offsetting conventional declines alongside higher Gas to Oil ratios in the Permian (and no we don’t need MORE gas there). Looking at the November only chart - another run to 3.40 looks in order, yet I am watching 3.05 and 3.00 like a hawk as a break below there leaves us potentially dropping back down to 2.76. For the next 10 days I am bullish (pending tropical weather and power demand).

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-25 23:46:55 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices are on a roll, recently hitting a 9-week high as traders navigate the October to November contract rollover. With a fair value around $3.50, fundamentals remain bullish, despite pesky technical gaps at $2.449 and $3.449. Supply stalling and warm weather have contributed to price resilience, while expectations for a storage build align with market trends. However, watch for key levels at $3.05 and $3.00—breaking below could signal a drop to $2.76. The dra...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.4 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.22
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.98

MA(20): $3.0

Current Price is 3.22, 9 day MA 2.98, 20 day MA 3.0

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0049

Signal: -0.0123

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 61.26

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 61.26 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,876

Avg (20d): 143,873

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 95.1

%D: 44.77

Stochastic %K: 95.1, %D: 44.77. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.26

+DI: 30.13

-DI: 19.64

ADX: 15.26 (+DI: 30.13, -DI: 19.64). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -4.9

Williams %R: -4.9 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 3.21

Middle: 3.0

Lower: 2.8

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 3.21, Middle: 3.0, Lower: 2.8

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 106.7 107.0 101.2 100.37
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.53
Total Supply 111.7 111.8 107.2 105.97
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.1 21.8 21.73
Electric Power Demand 40.0 38.2 38.6 37.27
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.83
LNG Exports 16.3 16.2 12.9 12.5
Mexico Exports 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.13
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.67
Total Demand 101.3 98.5 95.4 93.1
Supply/Demand Balance 10.4 13.3 11.8 12.87

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 3.2, CDD: 7.2)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 8.0)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 4.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 17.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 4.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 61.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 13.5
Total CDD: 46.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 129.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 17.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 137.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 8.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 11.5
Total CDD: 38.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.39
Daily: 0.52 (0.53%)
Weekly: 0.75 (0.76%)

US_10Y

4.17
Daily: 0.03 (0.6%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.8%)

SP500

6604.72
Daily: -33.25 (-0.5%)
Weekly: -59.64 (-0.89%)

VIX

16.74
Daily: 0.56 (3.46%)
Weekly: 1.29 (8.35%)

GOLD

3773.6
Daily: 41.5 (1.11%)
Weekly: 102.1 (2.78%)

COPPER

4.78
Daily: 0.03 (0.68%)
Weekly: 0.22 (4.73%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.104 EUR/MWh (-0.032). JKM prices decreased to 11.220 USD/MMBtu (-0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.116 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.104

-0.032

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-25

JKM Prices

11.220

-0.135

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-25

JKM-TTF Spread

0.116

1.04%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-25

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.6
11.4
11.2
10.9
10.7
11.10
11.22
OCT 25
11.17
11.32
NOV 25
11.32
11.56
DEC 25
11.43
11.54
JAN 26
11.46
11.29
FEB 26
11.30
10.87
MAR 26
10.92
10.80
APR 26
10.79
10.91
MAY 26
10.81
11.05
JUN 26
10.84
11.20
JUL 26
10.90
11.23
AUG 26
10.98
11.38
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.104
NOV 25 11.167
DEC 25 11.322
JAN 26 11.430
FEB 26 11.457
MAR 26 11.301
APR 26 10.918
MAY 26 10.790
JUN 26 10.813
JUL 26 10.844
AUG 26 10.898
SEP 26 10.983
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.220
DEC 25 11.325
JAN 26 11.565
FEB 26 11.545
MAR 26 11.295
APR 26 10.865
MAY 26 10.805
JUN 26 10.910
JUL 26 11.050
AUG 26 11.200
SEP 26 11.235
OCT 26 11.380

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 92
Last Updated: 2025-09-25 23:47:53

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

HEATING_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.22
Closest Support: $3.13 2.8% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 0.62% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.9
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-25 23:47:53
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-26 $2.9 $2.76 $3.05
2025-09-27 $2.91 $2.77 $3.06
2025-09-28 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05
2025-09-29 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05
2025-09-30 $2.91 $2.77 $3.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-09-26), reaching $2.90.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-26 and 2025-09-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.13, while resistance is at 3.24. This suggests potential price fluctuations within this range.

With the ML price forecast predicting a slight upward movement of 0.02%, traders should look for short-term opportunities, especially if prices test the support level. However, the risk of volatility remains, given the mixed signals from the fundamental balance and weather outlook.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 10.40 BCFD with a notable decrease of 2.90. This indicates a tightening supply scenario which may affect production planning.

Given the bullish overall market sentiment and positive news around hedging strategies, producers should consider adjusting their output to align with anticipated demand increases, especially in the cooling-dominated regions. Monitoring geopolitical developments will also be crucial, as they can significantly impact operational stability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling needs, consumers can expect stable pricing in the near term. However, the risk of supply reliability should be monitored due to potential fluctuations in production.

As the market sentiment remains positive, consumers may want to evaluate their procurement strategies to mitigate potential cost fluctuations, especially if demand rises unexpectedly in cooling-dominant regions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current market picture is characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, driven by positive news sentiment and a tightening supply scenario reflected in the fundamental balance. The 10.40 BCFD balance indicates a shift towards a more constrained supply environment.

Key driving factors include the cooling demand in several regions and strong sentiment around infrastructure developments supporting natural gas prices. Analysts should stay vigilant regarding geopolitical risks that could disrupt market stability and influence future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific guidance.

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