Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-24 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/24/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Right when I said Nat Gas is not THAT BEARISH - we see a drop - seasonally we are slightly higher than normal on storage 6.3%, but the forward look is during our shoulder month - so I’m not sure what traders are so worried about….this is all NORMAL seasonal weakness! Many analysts are projecting a 3.9 TCF exit to injection season - I still have 3.84 TCF in my model. Technicals are looking very bearish for the October contract - but remember - we are rolling from Oct (currently 2.80) to Nov (currently 3.09). On the rollover this week we are likely to gravitate and center at 2.924 - which is back to where we started. The chart looks bearish and we still have a rollover gap to 2.70 and a bigger gap at 2.449…but don’t forget we have a gap up there around 3.449 too! Fundamentally we SHOULD be $3+, Technically we could head down before back up….

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-24 23:46:44 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices have recently fluctuated, driven by seasonal storage levels and weather forecasts. Currently, storage is 6.3% above normal, with projections indicating an exit of around 3.84 TCF from injection season. Despite bearish technical signals for October contracts, warm weather is providing some support, pushing prices slightly higher. As we roll from October to November contracts, watch for a potential gravitation towards $2.924. Ultimately, fundamentals sugge...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $3.15
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.98

MA(20): $3.0

Current Price is 3.15, 9 day MA 2.98, 20 day MA 3.0

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0062

Signal: -0.0094

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 58.12

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 58.12 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,622

Avg (20d): 149,187

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 89.91

%D: 36.48

Stochastic %K: 89.91, %D: 36.48. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.1

+DI: 17.13

-DI: 24.81

ADX: 15.1 (+DI: 17.13, -DI: 24.81). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -10.09

Williams %R: -10.09 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.19

Middle: 3.0

Lower: 2.81

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.19, Middle: 3.0, Lower: 2.81

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 3.0, CDD: 5.1)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 7.5)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 1.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 17.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 45.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 10.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 13.0
Total CDD: 56.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 117.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 17.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 138.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 5.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 5.0
Total CDD: 53.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.75
Daily: 0.49 (0.51%)
Weekly: 0.4 (0.41%)

US_10Y

4.15
Daily: 0.03 (0.66%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.05%)

SP500

6637.97
Daily: -18.95 (-0.28%)
Weekly: 6.01 (0.09%)

VIX

16.18
Daily: -0.46 (-2.76%)
Weekly: 0.48 (3.06%)

GOLD

3766.5
Daily: -14.1 (-0.37%)
Weekly: 122.8 (3.37%)

COPPER

4.87
Daily: 0.29 (6.22%)
Weekly: 0.33 (7.23%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 11.136 EUR/MWh (+0.039). JKM prices increased to 11.355 USD/MMBtu (+0.085). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.219 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.136

+0.039

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-24

JKM Prices

11.355

+0.085

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-24

JKM-TTF Spread

0.219

1.97%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-24

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.6
11.3
11.1
10.8
11.14
11.36
OCT 25
11.34
11.54
NOV 25
11.49
11.73
DEC 25
11.59
11.72
JAN 26
11.61
11.45
FEB 26
11.44
11.00
MAR 26
11.00
10.93
APR 26
10.88
11.03
MAY 26
10.90
11.14
JUN 26
10.93
11.29
JUL 26
10.99
11.32
AUG 26
11.07
11.45
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.136
NOV 25 11.344
DEC 25 11.494
JAN 26 11.590
FEB 26 11.611
MAR 26 11.441
APR 26 11.004
MAY 26 10.879
JUN 26 10.900
JUL 26 10.932
AUG 26 10.988
SEP 26 11.071
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.355
DEC 25 11.540
JAN 26 11.735
FEB 26 11.720
MAR 26 11.445
APR 26 11.000
MAY 26 10.925
JUN 26 11.025
JUL 26 11.145
AUG 26 11.290
SEP 26 11.325
OCT 26 11.450

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.45
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 76
Last Updated: 2025-09-24 23:47:37

Commodity Sentiment

HEATING_OIL

0.6

CRUDE_OIL

0.65

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (6 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.15
Closest Support: $3.13 0.63% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.24 2.86% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.86
0.382 $3.01
0.5 $3.13 Support
0.618 $3.24 Resistance
0.786 $3.41
1.0 $3.63

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $3.9
1.618 $4.25
2.0 $4.64
2.618 $5.26

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.86
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-24 23:47:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.35%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-25 $2.87 $2.72 $3.01
2025-09-26 $2.87 $2.73 $3.02
2025-09-27 $2.88 $2.74 $3.02
2025-09-28 $2.88 $2.73 $3.02
2025-09-29 $2.88 $2.73 $3.02

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2025-09-25), reaching $2.87.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-25 and 2025-09-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.13 and resistance at 3.24. This indicates potential price consolidation within this range.

The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.35% with a projected range of 2.72 to 3.01. Traders should watch for short-term opportunities around these levels, but remain cautious of potential volatility due to mixed fundamental signals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 13.30 BCFD with a slight increase of +0.50. This indicates a stable supply situation, but producers should be aware of rising geopolitical risks impacting crude oil prices, as highlighted in recent news sentiment.

Given the bullish market sentiment overall, producers may consider adjusting their hedging strategies to protect against potential price spikes while also planning for production increases in response to demand forecasts.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

The weather outlook indicates moderate cooling demand with low heating requirements, particularly in the South and West regions. This could lead to stable pricing for natural gas in the short term, but consumers should be prepared for possible fluctuations as demand shifts.

With the current market sentiment being bullish, consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential price increases, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate or if supply concerns arise.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral technical outlook, with key resistance and support levels established. The fundamental balance remains stable, but recent news indicates rising supply concerns in crude oil, which could shift market dynamics.

The overall market sentiment is supported by positive sentiment in heating oil and crude oil, while natural gas sentiment is relatively weak. Analysts should monitor these trends closely as they could indicate shifts in supply-demand dynamics and pricing strategies going forward.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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