Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-22 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/22/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Right when I said Nat Gas is not THAT BEARISH - we see a drop - seasonally we are slightly higher than normal on storage 6.3%, but the forward look is during our shoulder month - so I’m not sure what traders are so worried about….this is all NORMAL seasonal weakness! Many analysts are projecting a 3.9 TCF exit to injection season - I still have 3.84 TCF in my model. Technicals are looking very bearish for the October contract - but remember - we are rolling from Oct (currently 2.80) to Nov (currently 3.09). So we likely are going to see next week centralize at 2.924 - which is back to where we started. The chart looks bearish and we still have a rollover gap to 2.70 and a bigger gap at 2.449…but don’t forget we have a gap up there around 3.449 too! Fundamentally we SHOULD be $3+, Technically we could head down before back up….

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-22 23:46:28 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas prices recently hit a 4-week low due to abundant U.S. supplies and seasonal storage levels 6.3% above normal. Analysts project a 3.9 TCF exit from injection season, while current technicals suggest a bearish trend for October contracts, with prices around $2.80. As we roll into November at $3.09, traders are cautious, influenced by potential support gaps at $2.70 and $2.449, alongside a bullish gap at $3.449. Fundamentally, prices should be above $3, yet bearis...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 13.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.8
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $2.98

MA(20): $2.97

Current Price is 2.8, 9 day MA 2.98, 20 day MA 2.97

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.0175

Signal: -0.0066

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.16

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.16 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 2,044

Avg (20d): 143,983

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 4.8

%D: 11.72

Stochastic %K: 4.8, %D: 11.72. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.54

+DI: 17.7

-DI: 26.52

ADX: 14.54 (+DI: 17.7, -DI: 26.52). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -95.2

Williams %R: -95.2 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.21

Middle: 2.97

Lower: 2.73

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.21, Middle: 2.97, Lower: 2.73

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.0 107.2 101.5 100.93
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 5.1 6.2 5.63
Total Supply 111.8 112.3 107.8 106.63
Industrial Demand 22.1 22.5 22.1 21.9
Electric Power Demand 38.2 36.9 38.9 39.23
Residential & Commercial 8.8 10.2 9.0 8.8
LNG Exports 16.2 16.0 13.4 12.23
Mexico Exports 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.3
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.73
Total Demand 98.5 99.5 96.8 95.17
Supply/Demand Balance 13.3 12.8 11.0 11.47

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 1.1, CDD: 7.2)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 2.5)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 5.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 7.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 23.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 5.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 5.5
Total CDD: 19.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 2.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 55.0

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 134.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 23.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 165.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 2.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 68.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.33
Daily: -0.31 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 0.7 (0.72%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: 0.0 (0.1%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.91%)

SP500

6693.75
Daily: 29.39 (0.44%)
Weekly: 86.99 (1.32%)

VIX

16.1
Daily: 0.65 (4.21%)
Weekly: -0.26 (-1.59%)

GOLD

3777.6
Daily: 106.1 (2.89%)
Weekly: 88.7 (2.4%)

COPPER

4.63
Daily: 0.06 (1.39%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.01%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,638,680
Change: +7,588

Managed Money

-23,091
Change: +1,661
-1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-13,656
Change: +16,984
-0.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

118,075
Change: +4,119
7.2% of OI

Other Reportables

-87,853
Change: -18,058
-5.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-16
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: +5,505

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 11.138 EUR/MWh (-0.076). JKM prices decreased to 11.365 USD/MMBtu (-0.160). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.227 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.138

-0.076

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-22

JKM Prices

11.365

-0.160

Front month: NOV 25

As of 2025-09-22

JKM-TTF Spread

0.227

2.04%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-22

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.6
11.3
11.1
10.8
11.14
11.37
OCT 25
11.36
11.54
NOV 25
11.53
11.74
DEC 25
11.63
11.73
JAN 26
11.65
11.45
FEB 26
11.48
11.01
MAR 26
11.06
10.91
APR 26
10.93
11.03
MAY 26
10.93
11.13
JUN 26
10.96
11.27
JUL 26
11.00
11.30
AUG 26
11.09
11.43
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 11.138
NOV 25 11.360
DEC 25 11.530
JAN 26 11.627
FEB 26 11.652
MAR 26 11.485
APR 26 11.064
MAY 26 10.925
JUN 26 10.931
JUL 26 10.963
AUG 26 11.000
SEP 26 11.086
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
NOV 25 11.365
DEC 25 11.540
JAN 26 11.740
FEB 26 11.735
MAR 26 11.450
APR 26 11.010
MAY 26 10.915
JUN 26 11.030
JUL 26 11.135
AUG 26 11.270
SEP 26 11.305
OCT 26 11.425

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.433
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-09-22 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.8
Closest Support: $2.62 6.43% below current price
Closest Resistance: $2.89 3.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62 Support
0.236 $2.89 Resistance
0.382 $3.05
0.5 $3.18
0.618 $3.31
0.786 $3.5
1.0 $3.74

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.04
1.618 $4.43
2.0 $4.85
2.618 $5.54

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.81
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-22 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-23 $2.8 $2.66 $2.94
2025-09-24 $2.79 $2.65 $2.94
2025-09-25 $2.8 $2.66 $2.95
2025-09-26 $2.8 $2.66 $2.95
2025-09-27 $2.81 $2.67 $2.95

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-09-23), reaching $2.80.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-23 and 2025-09-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is bearish, reflected in the overall sentiment score of -0.433. The technical indicators suggest a support level at 2.62 and a resistance level at 2.89. With the ML price forecast indicating a potential decline of 0.21%, traders should be cautious of short-term opportunities as volatility may increase around these levels. The cooling demand in various regions could further impact prices negatively.

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For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should be aware of the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, particularly with natural gas sentiment at -0.700. The fundamental balance shows an increase to 13.30 BCFD, indicating a potential oversupply situation. Producers may consider adjusting production plans and hedging strategies accordingly to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations and ensure operational stability amidst the changing market dynamics.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term, given the overall bearish market sentiment and the forecasted decline in prices. The mild weather outlook suggests low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may stabilize supply. However, the risk of supply reliability should not be overlooked, especially with the mixed regional patterns. Consumers might benefit from considering procurement strategies to hedge against potential price volatility.

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For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently experiencing a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of technical indicators and fundamental supply/demand dynamics. The fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, while cooling demand across regions may further suppress prices. Analysts should closely monitor the convergence of these factors and the potential for shifts in sentiment as geopolitical developments unfold, particularly regarding oil supply risks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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