Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-07 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/07/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is at a stalling point - 3.127 is a critical point and I believe if it gets taken out by the bulls - then 3.449 - 3.525 is coming. There are gaps at 3.449 and 2.449 - which is why this movement is a critical turning point - failure here points to a reversal to fill a rollover gap at 2.762 and the bigger gap from earlier this year at 2.449. 3.127 is the pivot with 3.00 and 2.924 as support while 3.247 and 3.342 are resistance. Storage is not filling as fast as the bears expected - translation - we are “less bearish” and the fundamentals are pointing to a strong entry into winter. Hurricanes and Heat are the September points to watch.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-07 23:46:19 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is at a critical junction, with 3.127 serving as a pivotal support. A break above this level could see prices rise to 3.449-3.525, while failure may lead to a drop towards 2.762 or even 2.449. Current storage levels are not filling as fast as anticipated, hinting at a less bearish outlook as we approach winter. Cooler weather forecasts may put downward pressure on prices, but overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Keep an eye on hurricanes and heat, a...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 12.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.11
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $2.98

MA(20): $2.89

Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 2.98, 20 day MA 2.89

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0064

Signal: -0.0576

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 57.98

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 57.98 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,177

Avg (20d): 134,530

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 96.66

%D: 89.72

Stochastic %K: 96.66, %D: 89.72. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.41

+DI: 20.72

-DI: 17.41

ADX: 18.41 (+DI: 20.72, -DI: 17.41). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -3.34

Williams %R: -3.34 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.15

Middle: 2.89

Lower: 2.63

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.15, Middle: 2.89, Lower: 2.63

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.2 107.8 102.0 100.8
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.17
Total Supply 111.9 112.7 109.0 107.03
Industrial Demand 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.47
Electric Power Demand 38.4 41.0 44.2 43.1
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.7
LNG Exports 16.1 16.4 12.7 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.2
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 99.6 102.5 100.3 98.2
Supply/Demand Balance 12.3 10.2 8.7 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 10.9)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.2)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 6.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 14.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 21.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 6.5
Total HDD: 3.5
Total CDD: 58.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 5.5
Total HDD: 3.0
Total CDD: 38.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 14.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 141.5

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 21.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 162.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 7.0
Total HDD: 1.5
Total CDD: 46.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.85
Daily: 0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly: -0.55 (-0.56%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.09 (-2.16%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.34%)

SP500

6481.5
Daily: -20.58 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 21.24 (0.33%)

VIX

15.18
Daily: -0.12 (-0.78%)
Weekly: -0.18 (-1.17%)

GOLD

3627.5
Daily: 14.3 (0.4%)
Weekly: 78.1 (2.2%)

COPPER

4.56
Daily: 0.08 (1.74%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.2%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,635,669
Change: +16,265

Managed Money

-36,762
Change: +7,270
-2.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-21,694
Change: -4,920
-1.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

110,906
Change: +6,307
6.8% of OI

Other Reportables

-66,014
Change: -6,100
-4.0% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-09-02
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: +75,307

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices decreased to 10.985 EUR/MWh (-0.043). JKM prices increased to 11.300 USD/MMBtu (+0.055). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.315 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.985

-0.043

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-07

JKM Prices

11.300

+0.055

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-07

JKM-TTF Spread

0.315

2.87%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-07

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.9
11.6
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.98
11.30
OCT 25
11.32
11.38
NOV 25
11.49
11.64
DEC 25
11.57
11.79
JAN 26
11.59
11.75
FEB 26
11.41
11.39
MAR 26
10.94
10.97
APR 26
10.78
10.87
MAY 26
10.77
10.99
JUN 26
10.78
11.06
JUL 26
10.82
11.14
AUG 26
10.91
11.21
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 10.985
NOV 25 11.321
DEC 25 11.488
JAN 26 11.569
FEB 26 11.586
MAR 26 11.413
APR 26 10.935
MAY 26 10.783
JUN 26 10.766
JUL 26 10.779
AUG 26 10.823
SEP 26 10.908
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.300
NOV 25 11.375
DEC 25 11.640
JAN 26 11.790
FEB 26 11.750
MAR 26 11.395
APR 26 10.975
MAY 26 10.865
JUN 26 10.995
JUL 26 11.060
AUG 26 11.140
SEP 26 11.205

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.167
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 46
Last Updated: 2025-09-07 23:47:10

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

HEATING_OIL

0.0

NATURAL_GAS

0.1

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.11
Closest Support: $2.98 4.18% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 2.89% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.05
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-07 23:47:11
Next Trading Day: UP 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-06 $3.05 $2.91 $3.2
2025-09-07 $3.05 $2.91 $3.2
2025-09-08 $3.05 $2.9 $3.19
2025-09-09 $3.05 $2.9 $3.19
2025-09-10 $3.05 $2.9 $3.2

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-09-06), reaching $3.05.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-06 and 2025-09-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98 while resistance is noted at 3.2. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations within the range of 2.91 to 3.2, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.21%. Overall, the bearish sentiment from news analysis and the cooling demand forecast may lead to increased volatility and short-term risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in production at 12.30 BCFD. However, with a bearish market sentiment reflected in the news, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to mitigate risks. The sentiment surrounding crude oil is particularly negative, with a score of -0.600. This may necessitate revisiting hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The expected low heating demand due to cooling temperatures may provide some relief in short-term procurement costs. However, the overall supply reliability could be impacted by the bearish outlook, necessitating strategic considerations for hedging against price volatility in natural gas and other energy commodities.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven primarily by negative news sentiment regarding crude oil and the overall cooling demand forecast. The fundamental balance is slightly positive, but the technical indicators suggest caution. Analysts should focus on the divergence between supply and demand dynamics, especially in the context of weather impacts and the potential for shifts in market sentiment as producers respond to the current conditions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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