Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-04 23:47

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/04/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is either going to burst up through $3 and jump to 3.449 (with a pause at 3.247 and 3.127) or fail to break the strong resistance at $3 and head down to fill the 2.762 gap and 2.449 gap. That is what the technicals are pointing to….now the fundamentals are showing a bullish story - the supply/demand balance is pretty tight for this time of year - LNG is likely to increase and Power has been building on AI/Data Center demand. The fundamentals support a 3.25 to 3.75 range for the next 60 days….while the technicals look a bit weaker.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-04 23:46:30 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is at a crucial juncture, hovering around $3, with technical signals hinting at a potential breakout or retreat. Recent forecasts of warmer U.S. weather provide support, while tight supply-demand dynamics bolster prices, suggesting a range of $3.25 to $3.75 in the near term. However, elevated inventories and reduced production present mixed signals. Watch for the $3 resistance level—breaking above it could lead to a rally, while failure might push prices down t...

Executive Summary

Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 12.3 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.09
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $2.9

MA(20): $2.89

Current Price is 3.09, 9 day MA 2.9, 20 day MA 2.89

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0302

Signal: -0.0826

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 57.03

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 57.03 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,604

Avg (20d): 134,406

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 92.34

%D: 88.84

Stochastic %K: 92.34, %D: 88.84. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.96

+DI: 23.82

-DI: 19.96

ADX: 19.96 (+DI: 23.82, -DI: 19.96). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -7.66

Williams %R: -7.66 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.13

Middle: 2.89

Lower: 2.64

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.13, Middle: 2.89, Lower: 2.64

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.2 107.8 102.0 100.8
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.8 4.9 6.9 6.17
Total Supply 111.9 112.7 109.0 107.03
Industrial Demand 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.47
Electric Power Demand 38.4 41.0 44.2 43.1
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.7
LNG Exports 16.1 16.4 12.7 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.2
Pipeline Fuel 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.83
Total Demand 99.6 102.5 100.3 98.2
Supply/Demand Balance 12.3 10.2 8.7 8.83

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 2.3, CDD: 5.7)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Heating dominated (HDD: 2.5)

Midwest

Heating dominated (HDD: 6.5)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 12.0)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 16.5)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 6.5
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 36.5
Total CDD: 6.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 4.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 4.0
Total CDD: 54.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 12.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 147.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 16.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 171.0

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 1.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.0
Total HDD: 1.0
Total CDD: 63.0

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.12
Daily: -0.02 (-0.02%)
Weekly: 0.31 (0.31%)

US_10Y

4.18
Daily: -0.03 (-0.83%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.74%)

SP500

6502.08
Daily: 53.82 (0.83%)
Weekly: 0.22 (0.0%)

VIX

15.3
Daily: -1.05 (-6.42%)
Weekly: 0.87 (6.03%)

GOLD

3614.9
Daily: 21.7 (0.6%)
Weekly: 183.1 (5.34%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)
Weekly: 0.13 (2.9%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,619,404
Change: +15,634

Managed Money

-44,032
Change: -7,345
-2.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-16,774
Change: +997
-1.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

104,599
Change: -634
6.5% of OI

Other Reportables

-59,914
Change: +8,487
-3.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices increased to 10.967 EUR/MWh (+0.101). JKM prices decreased to 11.225 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.258 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

10.967

+0.101

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-04

JKM Prices

11.225

-0.020

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-04

JKM-TTF Spread

0.258

2.35%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-04

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
12.0
11.6
11.3
11.0
10.7
10.97
11.22
OCT 25
11.31
11.43
NOV 25
11.47
11.68
DEC 25
11.55
11.86
JAN 26
11.55
11.81
FEB 26
11.38
11.44
MAR 26
10.92
10.99
APR 26
10.79
10.91
MAY 26
10.77
11.02
JUN 26
10.79
11.05
JUL 26
10.83
11.20
AUG 26
10.94
11.28
SEP 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
OCT 25 10.967
NOV 25 11.310
DEC 25 11.467
JAN 26 11.551
FEB 26 11.550
MAR 26 11.378
APR 26 10.924
MAY 26 10.788
JUN 26 10.769
JUL 26 10.785
AUG 26 10.834
SEP 26 10.935
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.225
NOV 25 11.425
DEC 25 11.675
JAN 26 11.855
FEB 26 11.815
MAR 26 11.435
APR 26 10.990
MAY 26 10.910
JUN 26 11.015
JUL 26 11.050
AUG 26 11.195
SEP 26 11.275

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 81
Last Updated: 2025-09-04 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (17 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (5 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.09
Closest Support: $2.98 3.56% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 3.56% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.07
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-04 23:47:25
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-05 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22
2025-09-06 $3.07 $2.92 $3.23
2025-09-07 $3.07 $2.92 $3.23
2025-09-08 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22
2025-09-09 $3.07 $2.92 $3.22

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-09-05), reaching $3.07.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98 and resistance at 3.2, suggesting potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.13%, which may present short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices approach the support level. Traders should remain vigilant for volatility, especially with the cooling demand expected, particularly in the South and West regions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The fundamental balance is currently at 12.30 BCFD, with a notable increase of +2.10. This suggests a growing supply, which could impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines in a bearish market. Additionally, the neutral news sentiment indicates that while there are no immediate concerns, the market remains sensitive to changes in supply and demand dynamics.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

With the current low heating demand projected and moderate cooling demand, consumers may experience cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The fundamental balance suggests a stable supply, but the potential for price movements around the Fibonacci support level of 2.98 warrants attention. Given the neutral sentiment in the market, consumers should consider proactive procurement strategies to hedge against unexpected price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish outlook, driven by a fundamental balance indicating increasing supply. The cooling demand in key regions suggests that prices may stabilize or decline further, particularly as the ML forecast indicates a slight downturn. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and the neutral sentiment, as these factors will be crucial in determining future market movements. Monitoring geopolitical developments and infrastructure updates will also be essential in assessing potential shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

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