Natural Gas Radar

2025-09-03 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/03/2025 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural Gas is either going to burst up through $3 and jump to 3.449 (with a pause at 3.247 and 3.127) or fail to break the strong resistance at $3 and head down to fill the 2.762 gap and 2.449 gap. That is what the technicals are pointing to….now the fundamentals are showing a bullish story - the supply/demand balance is pretty tight for this time of year - LNG is likely to increase and Power has been building on AI/Data Center demand. The fundamentals support a 3.25 to 3.75 range for the next 60 days….while the technicals look a bit weaker.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-03 23:46:57 Length: 480 chars
Natural gas is at a critical juncture, fluctuating around the $3 mark with potential for a breakout or a drop. Technicals suggest resistance at $3, while bullish fundamentals, such as tight supply and increasing LNG demand, support a range of $3.25 to $3.75 in the near term. Recent price increases are attributed to forecasts of hotter weather and lower daily output, pushing prices to near three-week highs. Traders should watch for resistance breaks or dips towards the $2.7...

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 3.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 10.2 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $3.08
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.87

MA(20): $2.89

Current Price is 3.08, 9 day MA 2.87, 20 day MA 2.89

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.047

Signal: -0.0956

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.15

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,997

Avg (20d): 131,733

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 97.84

%D: 92.91

Stochastic %K: 97.84, %D: 92.91. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.46

+DI: 22.96

-DI: 21.26

ADX: 20.46 (+DI: 22.96, -DI: 21.26). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -2.16

Williams %R: -2.16 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 3.13

Middle: 2.89

Lower: 2.64

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.13, Middle: 2.89, Lower: 2.64

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 107.8 107.4 101.3 100.27
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Canadian Imports 4.9 5.2 6.4 5.93
Total Supply 112.7 112.6 107.8 106.23
Industrial Demand 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.4
Electric Power Demand 41.0 45.7 44.4 42.37
Residential & Commercial 8.8 8.9 8.2 8.57
LNG Exports 16.4 15.5 12.8 11.93
Mexico Exports 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.17
Pipeline Fuel 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.8
Total Demand 102.5 106.1 100.5 97.2
Supply/Demand Balance 10.2 6.5 7.3 9.03

Weather Analysis

Weather Impact Summary

Overall: COOLING dominated (HDD: 0.0, CDD: 8.1)
Residential/Commercial: LOW heating demand expected
Power Generation: MODERATE cooling demand expected

Regional Weather Patterns

Northeast

Cooling dominated (CDD: 1.0)

Midwest

Cooling dominated (CDD: 8.0)

South

Cooling dominated (CDD: 13.5)

West

Cooling dominated (CDD: 17.0)

Degree Days by City

Chicago, IL

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 8.0
Total HDD: 37.0
Total CDD: 19.5

New York, NY

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0.0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 1.5
Total HDD: 0.5
Total CDD: 47.5

Houston, TX

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 13.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 151.0

Los Angeles, CA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 17.0
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 175.5

Philadelphia, PA

Heating Degree Days (HDD): 0
Cooling Degree Days (CDD): 0.5
Total HDD: 0
Total CDD: 49.5

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.23
Daily: -0.17 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.0%)

US_10Y

4.21
Daily: -0.07 (-1.54%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.64%)

SP500

6448.26
Daily: 32.72 (0.51%)
Weekly: -33.14 (-0.51%)

VIX

16.35
Daily: -0.82 (-4.78%)
Weekly: 1.5 (10.1%)

GOLD

3587.9
Daily: 38.5 (1.08%)
Weekly: 183.3 (5.38%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.02 (0.35%)
Weekly: 0.17 (3.87%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,619,404
Change: +15,634

Managed Money

-44,032
Change: -7,345
-2.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-16,774
Change: +997
-1.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

104,599
Change: -634
6.5% of OI

Other Reportables

-59,914
Change: +8,487
-3.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2025-08-26
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 11.206 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.245 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.039 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

11.206

+0.000

Front month: SEP 25

As of 2025-09-03

JKM Prices

11.245

+0.030

Front month: OCT 25

As of 2025-09-03

JKM-TTF Spread

0.039

0.35%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2025-09-03

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.8
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
11.21
11.24
SEP 25
10.87
11.24
OCT 25
11.18
11.54
NOV 25
11.35
11.72
DEC 25
11.43
11.69
JAN 26
11.45
11.33
FEB 26
11.28
10.90
MAR 26
10.83
10.84
APR 26
10.69
10.95
MAY 26
10.67
10.97
JUN 26
10.69
11.12
JUL 26
10.74
11.20
AUG 26
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
SEP 25 11.206
OCT 25 10.866
NOV 25 11.178
DEC 25 11.350
JAN 26 11.434
FEB 26 11.448
MAR 26 11.280
APR 26 10.826
MAY 26 10.688
JUN 26 10.666
JUL 26 10.693
AUG 26 10.736
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
OCT 25 11.245
NOV 25 11.245
DEC 25 11.540
JAN 26 11.720
FEB 26 11.685
MAR 26 11.330
APR 26 10.900
MAY 26 10.835
JUN 26 10.950
JUL 26 10.975
AUG 26 11.120
SEP 26 11.200

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 65
Last Updated: 2025-09-03 23:47:52

Commodity Sentiment

HEATING_OIL

0.0

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (14 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Weather (4 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $3.08
Closest Support: $2.98 3.25% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.2 3.9% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.62
0.236 $2.98 Support
0.382 $3.2 Resistance
0.5 $3.38
0.618 $3.57
0.786 $3.82
1.0 $4.15

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $4.56
1.618 $5.09
2.0 $5.67
2.618 $6.62

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $3.06
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-03 23:47:52
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.39%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-04 $3.05 $2.9 $3.21
2025-09-05 $3.05 $2.9 $3.2
2025-09-06 $3.05 $2.9 $3.21
2025-09-07 $3.05 $2.9 $3.21
2025-09-08 $3.05 $2.89 $3.2

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.39% for the next trading day (2025-09-04), reaching $3.05.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-04 and 2025-09-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.98, while resistance is at 3.2. Traders should be cautious, as the ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.39%, with a trading range of 2.9 to 3.21. This creates short-term opportunities for those looking to capitalize on price dips, but also highlights volatility risks in the current market environment.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should take note of the fundamental balance at 10.20 BCFD, which has increased by +3.70. This shift indicates a potential oversupply, which may pressure prices further. The neutral market sentiment and the bearish outlook for crude oil, as indicated by supply concerns in recent headlines, suggest that producers might need to reassess their hedging strategies and production planning to mitigate potential financial impacts.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the prevailing cooling demand across regions, with a notable weather outlook showing low heating demand and moderate cooling demand. The recent increase in natural gas prices, coupled with a supply balance indicating higher output, suggests that procurement strategies may need adjustment to ensure supply reliability. As natural gas prices hold near a three-week high, consumers should consider hedging options to protect against price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The market picture presents a complex scenario where bearish technical indicators and a neutral sentiment score reflect a cautious outlook. The strongest driving factors include the moderately bearish technical interpretation and the increasing fundamental balance in natural gas. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and weather forecasts, as these could shift market dynamics. The overall sentiment in the energy sector indicates a potential for downward price adjustments in the near term, particularly for crude oil and natural gas markets.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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