Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.5 BCFD
MA(9): $2.79
MA(20): $2.9
MACD: -0.1381
Signal: -0.1334
Days since crossover: 26
Value: 35.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 130
Avg (20d): 134,303
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 18.44
%D: 11.49
ADX: 27.53
+DI: 16.25
-DI: 28.78
Value: -81.56
Upper: 3.17
Middle: 2.9
Lower: 2.63
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 106.7 | 101.3 | 100.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.63 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.9 | 107.8 | 105.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 41.0 | 43.7 | 42.37 |
| Residential & Commercial | 8.9 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| LNG Exports | 15.5 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 11.93 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.23 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.77 |
| Total Demand | 106.1 | 102.5 | 99.2 | 96.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.5 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.83 |
TTF prices increased to 11.275 EUR/MWh (+0.008). JKM prices remained stable to 11.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.275 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-26
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-26
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-26
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.275 |
| OCT 25 | 11.660 |
| NOV 25 | 11.907 |
| DEC 25 | 12.055 |
| JAN 26 | 12.109 |
| FEB 26 | 12.118 |
| MAR 26 | 11.954 |
| APR 26 | 11.317 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.088 |
| JUL 26 | 11.100 |
| AUG 26 | 11.145 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.550 |
| NOV 25 | 11.890 |
| DEC 25 | 12.215 |
| JAN 26 | 12.345 |
| FEB 26 | 12.290 |
| MAR 26 | 11.935 |
| APR 26 | 11.330 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.360 |
| AUG 26 | 11.455 |
| SEP 26 | 11.525 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-28 | $2.7 | $2.53 | $2.87 |
| 2025-08-29 | $2.72 | $2.55 | $2.89 |
| 2025-08-30 | $2.71 | $2.55 | $2.88 |
| 2025-08-31 | $2.71 | $2.54 | $2.88 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.62 and the resistance level is at 2.98. Given the ML price forecast predicting a downward trend of 0.26%, traders should be cautious about short-term volatility and potential price movements within the range of 2.54 to 2.88. Look for opportunities to capitalize on price fluctuations, especially if the market tests the support level.
The fundamental balance shows a positive change of 6.50 BCFD with a ratio of 1.061, indicating a slight surplus in the market. This may prompt producers to consider adjusting their production levels. The neutral market sentiment with a score of +0.100 suggests stability, but specific headlines, such as US natgas extends losses, indicate that mild weather and ample supply could weigh on prices. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
With the current weather outlook indicating a dominance of cooling demand (especially in the South and West), consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in costs. The neutral sentiment in the market may provide some stability, but the fundamental balance suggests ample supply, which could mitigate extreme price spikes. However, the recent news regarding natural gas sliding to a 10-month low indicates that consumers should keep an eye on procurement strategies to ensure reliability and manage costs effectively.
The market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish technical indicators and a neutral sentiment. The fundamental balance indicates a slight surplus, while the weather outlook suggests a predominance of cooling demand across most regions. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward trend. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and weather impacts, as these will be key drivers in the short-term market outlook. The risks associated with geopolitical tensions and supply concerns in crude oil markets should also be monitored closely.