Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.84
MA(20): $2.95
MACD: -0.1325
Signal: -0.1291
Days since crossover: 23
Value: 38.28
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,295
Avg (20d): 132,923
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 20.8
%D: 12.29
ADX: 27.5
+DI: 15.91
-DI: 27.24
Value: -79.2
Upper: 3.19
Middle: 2.95
Lower: 2.72
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.100 EUR/MWh (+0.075). JKM prices increased to 11.110 USD/MMBtu (+0.195). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.010 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-21
Front month: OCT 25
As of 2025-08-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.100 |
| OCT 25 | 11.024 |
| NOV 25 | 11.358 |
| DEC 25 | 11.534 |
| JAN 26 | 11.599 |
| FEB 26 | 11.613 |
| MAR 26 | 11.457 |
| APR 26 | 10.879 |
| MAY 26 | 10.705 |
| JUN 26 | 10.673 |
| JUL 26 | 10.692 |
| AUG 26 | 10.746 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| OCT 25 | 11.110 |
| NOV 25 | 11.335 |
| DEC 25 | 11.720 |
| JAN 26 | 11.820 |
| FEB 26 | 11.795 |
| MAR 26 | 11.440 |
| APR 26 | 10.880 |
| MAY 26 | 10.745 |
| JUN 26 | 10.860 |
| JUL 26 | 10.945 |
| AUG 26 | 11.045 |
| SEP 26 | 11.120 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | $2.8 | $2.62 | $2.98 |
| 2025-08-23 | $2.81 | $2.63 | $2.99 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-25 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $2.99 |
The current technical analysis indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -3/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.72 and resistance is at 3.06. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast predicts a decline of 0.81% with a trading range between 2.62 and 2.98. The convergence of bearish technicals and a cooling weather outlook may present short-term opportunities for short positions, while volatility could arise from unexpected shifts in supply or demand.
With a fundamental balance of 4.00 BCFD showing a decrease of 5.40, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with current demand trends. The negative sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.600) indicates potential challenges in pricing power. Hedging strategies may need to be revised to protect against further price declines, especially given the recent news of lower output and high LNG export flows, which could support prices temporarily.
Consumers should be prepared for potential cost fluctuations as natural gas prices remain near nine-month lows. The low heating demand forecast suggests that procurement strategies may benefit from current lower prices, but it is essential to monitor supply reliability, especially with the bearish sentiment in the market. The cooling weather patterns could lead to adjustments in procurement strategies to leverage lower prices while ensuring adequate supply during peak demand periods.
The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment driven by a combination of factors: a fundamental balance indicating oversupply, negative sentiment on natural gas, and a cooling weather outlook impacting demand. The cooling trends could lead to a significant shift in market dynamics if sustained. Analysts should closely monitor price movements around the Fibonacci levels of 2.72 and 3.06 for potential breakout signals that might indicate a change in market sentiment.