Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.89
MA(20): $2.98
MACD: -0.133
Signal: -0.1265
Days since crossover: 21
Value: 34.3
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,884
Avg (20d): 130,023
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 1.75
%D: 22.54
ADX: 27.03
+DI: 14.91
-DI: 28.49
Value: -98.25
Upper: 3.2
Middle: 2.98
Lower: 2.77
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.028 EUR/MWh (+0.017). JKM prices remained stable to 11.893 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.865 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-19
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-19
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-19
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.028 |
| OCT 25 | 10.830 |
| NOV 25 | 11.191 |
| DEC 25 | 11.349 |
| JAN 26 | 11.404 |
| FEB 26 | 11.412 |
| MAR 26 | 11.256 |
| APR 26 | 10.714 |
| MAY 26 | 10.541 |
| JUN 26 | 10.490 |
| JUL 26 | 10.502 |
| AUG 26 | 10.558 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.893 |
| OCT 25 | 10.930 |
| NOV 25 | 11.190 |
| DEC 25 | 11.545 |
| JAN 26 | 11.720 |
| FEB 26 | 11.670 |
| MAR 26 | 11.325 |
| APR 26 | 10.775 |
| MAY 26 | 10.650 |
| JUN 26 | 10.775 |
| JUL 26 | 10.815 |
| AUG 26 | 10.920 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-20 | $2.78 | $2.6 | $2.97 |
| 2025-08-21 | $2.78 | $2.59 | $2.96 |
| 2025-08-22 | $2.76 | $2.58 | $2.95 |
| 2025-08-23 | $2.77 | $2.58 | $2.95 |
| 2025-08-24 | $2.78 | $2.59 | $2.96 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.75 and resistance at 3.08. The ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.57%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities within the range of 2.6 to 2.97. However, the overall bearish sentiment, with a score of -0.700, indicates that volatility may increase, presenting both opportunities and risks for traders.
With a fundamental balance of 4.00 BCFD and a notable decrease of -5.40, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with the reduced demand forecasted. The bearish market sentiment (-0.800 for natural gas) suggests that hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate potential losses. Additionally, the cooler weather forecasts could lead to lower heating demand, impacting revenue streams. Producers should remain agile in their operational strategies to adapt to these market conditions.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current bearish sentiment in the natural gas market. The low heating demand, especially in the residential and commercial sectors, indicates that procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure supply reliability. With the weather forecast indicating cooling dominance across several regions, utility providers may experience shifts in demand patterns, necessitating proactive adjustments in energy sourcing and pricing strategies.
The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical indicators and fundamental supply-demand shifts. The fundamental balance shows a decrease, while the overall market sentiment is negative, particularly for natural gas. Analysts should focus on the implications of cooler weather forecasts on demand and the potential for price volatility. The convergence of these factors suggests that while there may be short-term opportunities, the overarching trend leans towards caution in forecasting and strategic planning.