Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.94
MA(20): $3.03
MACD: -0.1308
Signal: -0.1244
Days since crossover: 19
Value: 40.39
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 138,654
Avg (20d): 138,113
Ratio: 1.0
%K: 36.02
%D: 23.14
ADX: 26.68
+DI: 17.1
-DI: 27.82
Value: -63.98
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.78
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.011 EUR/MWh (-0.159). JKM prices decreased to 11.893 USD/MMBtu (-0.017). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.882 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-16
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.011 |
| OCT 25 | 10.801 |
| NOV 25 | 11.160 |
| DEC 25 | 11.320 |
| JAN 26 | 11.386 |
| FEB 26 | 11.403 |
| MAR 26 | 11.253 |
| APR 26 | 10.751 |
| MAY 26 | 10.577 |
| JUN 26 | 10.533 |
| JUL 26 | 10.532 |
| AUG 26 | 10.587 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.893 |
| OCT 25 | 10.950 |
| NOV 25 | 11.200 |
| DEC 25 | 11.565 |
| JAN 26 | 11.740 |
| FEB 26 | 11.720 |
| MAR 26 | 11.345 |
| APR 26 | 10.860 |
| MAY 26 | 10.735 |
| JUN 26 | 10.840 |
| JUL 26 | 10.920 |
| AUG 26 | 11.020 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | $2.91 | $2.73 | $3.1 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-19 | $2.93 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
| 2025-08-20 | $2.92 | $2.74 | $3.11 |
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.76 and resistance at 3.09. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward trend of 0.18% with a range between 2.73 and 3.1. This presents short-term opportunities to capitalize on volatility, but also highlights risks associated with further price declines.
With a fundamental balance of 4.00 BCFD indicating a decrease of 5.40, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The bearish sentiment reflected in the news may suggest a need for enhanced hedging strategies to mitigate potential price drops. It’s crucial to monitor the output levels closely, especially with the current news highlighting near-record production levels.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current bearish market sentiment and moderate cooling demand. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which may impact procurement strategies. Consumers should consider reviewing their contracts and procurement plans to ensure supply reliability amidst these changing dynamics.
The market presents a complex picture with several driving factors influencing the outlook. The bearish sentiment from the news and technical indicators, alongside a fundamental balance showing a decrease, suggests caution. The prevailing weather patterns favor cooling demand, especially in the South and West regions, which may lead to shifts in consumption patterns. Analysts should keep a close watch on geopolitical developments and production levels that could alter the current market trajectory.