Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 4.0 BCFD
MA(9): $2.94
MA(20): $3.03
MACD: -0.1302
Signal: -0.1243
Days since crossover: 19
Value: 40.79
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 118,833
Avg (20d): 137,122
Ratio: 0.87
%K: 37.68
%D: 23.7
ADX: 26.68
+DI: 17.1
-DI: 27.82
Value: -62.32
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.78
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.1 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.3 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 108.1 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 4.0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.170 EUR/MWh (-0.111). JKM prices decreased to 11.910 USD/MMBtu (-0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.740 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-15
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-15
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-15
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.170 |
| OCT 25 | 11.147 |
| NOV 25 | 11.490 |
| DEC 25 | 11.656 |
| JAN 26 | 11.726 |
| FEB 26 | 11.744 |
| MAR 26 | 11.601 |
| APR 26 | 11.110 |
| MAY 26 | 10.939 |
| JUN 26 | 10.895 |
| JUL 26 | 10.896 |
| AUG 26 | 10.947 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.910 |
| OCT 25 | 11.420 |
| NOV 25 | 11.625 |
| DEC 25 | 12.015 |
| JAN 26 | 12.175 |
| FEB 26 | 12.170 |
| MAR 26 | 11.810 |
| APR 26 | 11.310 |
| MAY 26 | 11.175 |
| JUN 26 | 11.240 |
| JUL 26 | 11.375 |
| AUG 26 | 11.475 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-15 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.84 | $2.66 | $3.02 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.86 | $2.68 | $3.04 |
| 2025-08-18 | $2.85 | $2.67 | $3.04 |
| 2025-08-19 | $2.85 | $2.67 | $3.04 |
Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment, with a -3/5 technical score. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.76, while resistance is noted at 3.09. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.06%, within a range of 2.66 to 3.02. This presents short-term opportunities for those looking to capitalize on potential volatility, but the prevailing bearish sentiment may also signal risks for sudden price drops.
The fundamental balance shows a decline of 4.00 BCFD (Change: -5.40), indicating a tightening market. Producers should consider adjusting production levels and refining hedging strategies in response to the bearish market sentiment reflected in news articles and sentiment scores. The current high output levels may lead to further price reductions, as indicated by the latest headlines on natural gas prices easing due to record outputs. Monitoring geopolitical developments is also crucial, as they could impact supply chains.
With the weather outlook showing a predominance of cooling demand, particularly in the West (CDD: 34.0), consumers may experience cost fluctuations due to increased demand for cooling. The bearish sentiment in the market could provide opportunities for favorable procurement prices; however, the reliability of supply remains a concern, especially with the potential for further price declines in natural gas. Consumers should evaluate hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
The current market dynamics present a predominantly bearish outlook, driven by a combination of factors including a fundamental balance decline and negative news sentiment surrounding natural gas and crude oil. The technical indicators suggest resistance at 3.09 and support at 2.76, indicating potential price stabilization points. Analysts should focus on the implications of cooling demand across regions and the impact of geopolitical tensions on supply chains, as these could shift market sentiment rapidly.