Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.0
MA(20): $3.13
MACD: -0.1292
Signal: -0.1159
Days since crossover: 16
Value: 33.32
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,664
Avg (20d): 121,894
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 3.22
%D: 14.64
ADX: 24.47
+DI: 13.45
-DI: 31.97
Value: -96.78
Upper: 3.54
Middle: 3.13
Lower: 2.72
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices increased to 11.299 EUR/MWh (+0.088). JKM prices increased to 11.935 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.636 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-12
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-12
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-12
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.299 |
| OCT 25 | 11.390 |
| NOV 25 | 11.696 |
| DEC 25 | 11.852 |
| JAN 26 | 11.934 |
| FEB 26 | 11.944 |
| MAR 26 | 11.790 |
| APR 26 | 11.236 |
| MAY 26 | 11.064 |
| JUN 26 | 11.030 |
| JUL 26 | 11.038 |
| AUG 26 | 11.087 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.935 |
| OCT 25 | 11.675 |
| NOV 25 | 11.810 |
| DEC 25 | 12.165 |
| JAN 26 | 12.345 |
| FEB 26 | 12.310 |
| MAR 26 | 11.950 |
| APR 26 | 11.380 |
| MAY 26 | 11.240 |
| JUN 26 | 11.360 |
| JUL 26 | 11.415 |
| AUG 26 | 11.515 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-13 | $2.81 | $2.63 | $3.0 |
| 2025-08-14 | $2.81 | $2.62 | $2.99 |
| 2025-08-15 | $2.81 | $2.62 | $2.99 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.81 | $2.63 | $2.99 |
| 2025-08-17 | $2.82 | $2.64 | $3.0 |
Current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.725, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78 while resistance stands at 3.1. Given the fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD with a notable increase, traders should be cautious about short-term volatility.
Additionally, the ML price forecast shows a slight increase of 0.18%, suggesting potential for short-term trading opportunities within the range of 2.63 to 3.0. However, the overall bearish sentiment and cooling weather patterns may limit significant upward movement.
The current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with natural gas prices falling to eight-month lows due to near-record output and decreased heating demand. Producers should assess their hedging strategies accordingly, considering the implications of lower prices on revenue.
With the weather forecast indicating low heating demand and a cooling trend, production planning should focus on adjusting output to align with changing consumption patterns. The recent news sentiment around supply increases suggests that maintaining flexibility in operations will be crucial in managing costs and maximizing margins.
With the fundamental balance indicating a significant increase in supply, consumers may experience stable pricing in the short term. However, the bearish market sentiment and forecast of low heating demand could lead to cost fluctuations as suppliers adjust their pricing strategies in response to market conditions.
Utilities should consider their procurement strategies carefully, as the cooling weather patterns may lead to lower overall consumption. Engaging in forward contracts or hedging strategies may help mitigate potential price volatility in the future.
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of high supply levels and low demand due to cooling weather forecasts. The fundamental balance of 9.40 BCFD reflects a significant increase, which is contributing to downward pressure on prices.
Key driving factors include the impact of weather patterns on demand and the ML price forecast suggesting only slight upward movement in prices. Analysts should monitor these trends closely as they may indicate shifts in market dynamics that could affect both supply and demand moving forward.