Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $3.17
MACD: -0.1149
Signal: -0.1122
Days since crossover: 15
Value: 39.27
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,883
Avg (20d): 120,709
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 21.24
%D: 24.23
ADX: 22.78
+DI: 15.35
-DI: 27.26
Value: -78.76
Upper: 3.58
Middle: 3.17
Lower: 2.76
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.211 EUR/MWh (-0.100). JKM prices decreased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.719 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-11
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-11
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-11
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.211 |
| OCT 25 | 11.283 |
| NOV 25 | 11.603 |
| DEC 25 | 11.765 |
| JAN 26 | 11.850 |
| FEB 26 | 11.861 |
| MAR 26 | 11.715 |
| APR 26 | 11.143 |
| MAY 26 | 10.989 |
| JUN 26 | 10.954 |
| JUL 26 | 10.971 |
| AUG 26 | 11.021 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.510 |
| NOV 25 | 11.675 |
| DEC 25 | 12.060 |
| JAN 26 | 12.230 |
| FEB 26 | 12.200 |
| MAR 26 | 11.845 |
| APR 26 | 11.275 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.335 |
| AUG 26 | 11.430 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-12 | $2.95 | $2.77 | $3.13 |
| 2025-08-13 | $2.94 | $2.76 | $3.12 |
| 2025-08-14 | $2.94 | $2.76 | $3.12 |
| 2025-08-15 | $2.94 | $2.76 | $3.12 |
| 2025-08-16 | $2.95 | $2.77 | $3.13 |
Current market conditions indicate a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.89 and a resistance level at 3.19. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.16% with a trading range of 2.77 to 3.13. This indicates a short-term opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential price movements within this range while being cautious of volatility.
The fundamental balance at 9.40 BCFD shows a significant increase of +5.80, indicating ample supply conditions. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly and may want to implement hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the current market sentiment. The high output levels and low demand due to the cooling weather forecast could pressure prices further, necessitating proactive measures in operational strategies.
With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand across all regions, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The bearish market sentiment and the current price range suggest that procurement strategies might favor short-term contracts to take advantage of lower prices. It's essential to monitor supply reliability, especially with the ongoing high output levels, which may influence availability and pricing in the near term.
The market is currently influenced by several key factors: a negative sentiment score of -0.367, a significant increase in supply, and a weather outlook that favors cooling demand. These elements collectively paint a bearish market picture. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply levels and demand forecasts, as shifts in weather patterns could lead to sudden changes in market dynamics. Continuous monitoring of news sentiment and technical indicators will be crucial for anticipating potential outlook shifts.