Total supply decreased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.4 BCFD
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $3.17
MACD: -0.1193
Signal: -0.1131
Days since crossover: 15
Value: 37.35
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 7,347
Avg (20d): 121,302
Ratio: 0.06
%K: 9.84
%D: 20.43
ADX: 23.22
+DI: 14.7
-DI: 29.87
Value: -90.16
Upper: 3.59
Middle: 3.17
Lower: 2.75
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 102.4 | 100.93 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 111.9 | 113.2 | 109.2 | 107.17 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 21.33 |
| Electric Power Demand | 41.0 | 48.6 | 45.2 | 44.63 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 8.73 |
| LNG Exports | 16.3 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 12.0 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.87 |
| Total Demand | 102.5 | 109.6 | 101.7 | 99.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 7.53 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.211 EUR/MWh (-0.100). JKM prices decreased to 11.930 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.719 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-10
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-10
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-10
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.211 |
| OCT 25 | 11.283 |
| NOV 25 | 11.603 |
| DEC 25 | 11.765 |
| JAN 26 | 11.850 |
| FEB 26 | 11.861 |
| MAR 26 | 11.715 |
| APR 26 | 11.143 |
| MAY 26 | 10.989 |
| JUN 26 | 10.954 |
| JUL 26 | 10.971 |
| AUG 26 | 11.021 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.930 |
| OCT 25 | 11.510 |
| NOV 25 | 11.675 |
| DEC 25 | 12.060 |
| JAN 26 | 12.230 |
| FEB 26 | 12.200 |
| MAR 26 | 11.845 |
| APR 26 | 11.275 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.270 |
| JUL 26 | 11.335 |
| AUG 26 | 11.430 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | $3.02 | $2.84 | $3.2 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.01 | $2.83 | $3.19 |
| 2025-08-11 | $3.0 | $2.82 | $3.18 |
| 2025-08-12 | $3.0 | $2.82 | $3.18 |
| 2025-08-13 | $3.01 | $2.83 | $3.19 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -3/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.88 while resistance is noted at 3.18. Traders should be cautious as the overall market sentiment is bearish, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.433 from 52 articles analyzed. However, the next day's ML price forecast shows a slight potential increase of 0.94%, suggesting short-term trading opportunities within the range of 2.84 to 3.2. This could lead to increased volatility, making it essential to monitor price movements closely.
The current fundamental balance stands at 9.40 BCFD, showing a significant increase of 5.80. This suggests that producers may need to reassess their production planning in light of high output levels, which could pressure prices downward. The bearish sentiment surrounding natural gas, with a symbol-specific score of -0.700, indicates that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue impacts. Additionally, the cooling weather outlook across all regions could affect demand, further complicating operational decisions.
With the weather forecast indicating a predominance of cooling demand (CDD: 16.1), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas as demand rises. The bearish market sentiment, particularly for natural gas, may lead to supply reliability risks as producers adjust output in response to pricing pressures. Consumers are advised to closely monitor market conditions and consider procurement strategies that account for possible volatility in prices and supply availability.
The energy market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of -0.433 indicating negative market perceptions. The convergence of high output levels and ample stockpiles, coupled with a fundamental balance increase, suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The weather outlook, favoring cooling demand, may provide some support, yet the bearish technical indicators and sentiment could lead to shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on these driving factors to gauge future price movements and potential shifts in market sentiment.