Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.05
MA(20): $3.23
MACD: -0.127
Signal: -0.1073
Days since crossover: 11
Value: 39.78
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,127
Avg (20d): 123,483
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 15.53
%D: 12.49
ADX: 21.46
+DI: 13.59
-DI: 29.58
Value: -84.47
Upper: 3.64
Middle: 3.23
Lower: 2.82
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices increased to 11.624 EUR/MWh (+0.104). JKM prices increased to 12.005 USD/MMBtu (+0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.381 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-05
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-05
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-05
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.624 |
| OCT 25 | 11.855 |
| NOV 25 | 12.161 |
| DEC 25 | 12.330 |
| JAN 26 | 12.420 |
| FEB 26 | 12.436 |
| MAR 26 | 12.279 |
| APR 26 | 11.627 |
| MAY 26 | 11.412 |
| JUN 26 | 11.382 |
| JUL 26 | 11.418 |
| AUG 26 | 11.455 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.005 |
| OCT 25 | 12.040 |
| NOV 25 | 12.235 |
| DEC 25 | 12.640 |
| JAN 26 | 12.815 |
| FEB 26 | 12.795 |
| MAR 26 | 12.415 |
| APR 26 | 11.740 |
| MAY 26 | 11.590 |
| JUN 26 | 11.700 |
| JUL 26 | 11.825 |
| AUG 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | $3.0 | $2.72 | $3.28 |
| 2025-08-07 | $2.99 | $2.71 | $3.26 |
| 2025-08-08 | $2.99 | $2.72 | $3.27 |
| 2025-08-09 | $3.01 | $2.73 | $3.29 |
| 2025-08-10 | $3.0 | $2.72 | $3.28 |
The current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should pay close attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.89 and resistance at 3.19. The ML price forecast suggests a potential drop of 0.34%, indicating short-term volatility.
With cooling demand dominating across all regions, particularly in the Northeast and West, traders may find opportunities in short positions as prices may test the lower support level. Monitoring supply changes and news sentiment can provide further insights into potential price movements.
The fundamental balance indicates a production level of 3.60 BCFD, showing a decrease of 4.40. This suggests that producers may need to adjust their output in response to the declining balance. The negative sentiment surrounding demand, particularly for crude oil, could impact pricing strategies.
Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and potential oversupply. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, but the negative sentiment in crude oil suggests caution in production planning.
Consumers should brace for potential cost fluctuations as the cooling demand is expected to remain high, particularly in the South and West. The current fundamental balance indicates a decrease in supply, which could lead to increased prices if demand persists.
It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage potential price spikes. The neutral market sentiment does not suggest immediate alarm, but vigilance is warranted given the current volatility.
The energy market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish outlook, with significant cooling demand driving the market dynamics. The fundamental balance suggests a tightening supply scenario, which could shift market sentiment if demand remains elevated.
Analysts should focus on the convergence of supply and demand factors, particularly in light of the weather outlook favoring cooling. The mixed news sentiment indicates that while there are bullish signals for natural gas, crude oil faces bearish pressures. This divergence may present opportunities for strategic insights into market shifts.