Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.07
MA(20): $3.25
MACD: -0.118
Signal: -0.1006
Days since crossover: 10
Value: 39.23
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,635
Avg (20d): 125,049
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 10.65
%D: 15.98
ADX: 19.62
+DI: 14.98
-DI: 26.73
Value: -89.35
Upper: 3.63
Middle: 3.25
Lower: 2.87
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.586 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.414 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-08-03
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-03
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-03
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.586 |
| SEP 25 | 11.520 |
| OCT 25 | 11.720 |
| NOV 25 | 12.034 |
| DEC 25 | 12.213 |
| JAN 26 | 12.306 |
| FEB 26 | 12.322 |
| MAR 26 | 12.161 |
| APR 26 | 11.546 |
| MAY 26 | 11.364 |
| JUN 26 | 11.332 |
| JUL 26 | 11.373 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 11.905 |
| NOV 25 | 12.110 |
| DEC 25 | 12.510 |
| JAN 26 | 12.690 |
| FEB 26 | 12.660 |
| MAR 26 | 12.265 |
| APR 26 | 11.640 |
| MAY 26 | 11.535 |
| JUN 26 | 11.615 |
| JUL 26 | 11.740 |
| AUG 26 | 11.825 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.38 |
| 2025-08-03 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-04 | $3.09 | $2.82 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-05 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-06 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
Market analysis indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.97, while resistance is at 3.25. This suggests potential price fluctuations within this range, creating short-term trading opportunities.
With the cooling demand dominating across all regions, particularly in the West (CDD: 31.5), traders should monitor for volatility as the ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.51%. However, the overall market sentiment remains a critical factor to watch.
Producers should be aware of the overall bearish sentiment (-0.400) impacting both crude oil and natural gas markets. With the fundamental balance at 3.60 BCFD and a significant change of -4.40, there may be a need to reassess production levels to align with demand fluctuations.
The hedging strategies could be crucial in this environment, especially as OPEC+ plans to increase output, which may further pressure prices. Producers should also consider the implications of the high cooling demand on gas supply and adjust their operational strategies accordingly.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement due to the bearish market sentiment. The high cooling demand, particularly in the West, may lead to increased prices, despite the ML forecast indicating a slight increase in prices.
With the fundamental balance indicating a negative change, consumers should evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability and price volatility.
The current market landscape reveals a bearish sentiment across the board, particularly in crude oil and natural gas sectors. The fundamental balance is showing signs of weakness, with a significant drop in demand metrics. This could signal a shift in market dynamics that analysts should monitor closely.
Key driving factors include the high cooling demand and the implications of OPEC+ output increases. Analysts should consider these elements in their forecasts and be prepared for potential shifts in market sentiment as the situation evolves.