Total supply increased by 0.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 4.7 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 3.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.09
MA(20): $3.27
MACD: -0.1168
Signal: -0.0963
Days since crossover: 9
Value: 40.69
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 168,396
Avg (20d): 132,987
Ratio: 1.27
%K: 16.89
%D: 15.58
ADX: 18.97
+DI: 15.44
-DI: 26.04
Value: -83.11
Upper: 3.65
Middle: 3.27
Lower: 2.9
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 106.7 | 101.9 | 99.97 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.03 |
| Total Supply | 113.2 | 112.9 | 108.0 | 106.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 |
| Electric Power Demand | 48.6 | 44.0 | 44.6 | 44.53 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| LNG Exports | 15.4 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 11.63 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 109.6 | 104.9 | 99.2 | 99.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.63 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.586 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.414 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-08-02
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-08-02
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-08-02
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.586 |
| SEP 25 | 11.520 |
| OCT 25 | 11.720 |
| NOV 25 | 12.034 |
| DEC 25 | 12.213 |
| JAN 26 | 12.306 |
| FEB 26 | 12.322 |
| MAR 26 | 12.161 |
| APR 26 | 11.546 |
| MAY 26 | 11.364 |
| JUN 26 | 11.332 |
| JUL 26 | 11.373 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 11.905 |
| NOV 25 | 12.110 |
| DEC 25 | 12.510 |
| JAN 26 | 12.690 |
| FEB 26 | 12.660 |
| MAR 26 | 12.265 |
| APR 26 | 11.640 |
| MAY 26 | 11.535 |
| JUN 26 | 11.615 |
| JUL 26 | 11.740 |
| AUG 26 | 11.825 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | $3.1 | $2.82 | $3.38 |
| 2025-08-03 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-04 | $3.09 | $2.82 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-05 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
| 2025-08-06 | $3.09 | $2.81 | $3.37 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.97 while the resistance level is at 3.25. Traders should be cautious of volatility, particularly given the ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.51%, with a range between 2.82 and 3.38. This presents short-term trading opportunities but also risks if the bearish sentiment persists.
The fundamental balance is currently at 3.60 BCFD with a change of -4.40, indicating a slight oversupply situation. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the bearish market sentiment affecting natural gas and crude oil. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices influenced by robust US production and ample supplies as highlighted in recent news articles.
With the weather forecast indicating a high cooling demand (CDD: 18.7), consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to price reductions, but the overall supply reliability remains a concern due to the current fundamental balance. It is advisable to consider hedging strategies to protect against unexpected price spikes or supply disruptions.
The energy market is currently influenced by a convergence of bearish sentiments across natural gas and crude oil, with a sentiment score of -0.400. Key driving factors include robust US production and cooling demand, but also fears surrounding global energy demand and geopolitical tensions. The market outlook suggests potential shifts depending on weather patterns and geopolitical developments, necessitating close monitoring of both supply and demand dynamics.