Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.29
MA(20): $3.35
MACD: -0.0991
Signal: -0.0643
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 38.63
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 785
Avg (20d): 116,965
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 8.63
%D: 7.69
ADX: 15.46
+DI: 15.61
-DI: 28.4
Value: -91.37
Upper: 3.66
Middle: 3.35
Lower: 3.04
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices increased to 11.550 EUR/MWh (+0.003). JKM prices decreased to 11.875 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.325 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-27
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-27
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.550 |
| SEP 25 | 11.370 |
| OCT 25 | 11.587 |
| NOV 25 | 11.942 |
| DEC 25 | 12.115 |
| JAN 26 | 12.200 |
| FEB 26 | 12.215 |
| MAR 26 | 12.063 |
| APR 26 | 11.467 |
| MAY 26 | 11.293 |
| JUN 26 | 11.264 |
| JUL 26 | 11.296 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.875 |
| OCT 25 | 11.770 |
| NOV 25 | 12.015 |
| DEC 25 | 12.375 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.580 |
| MAR 26 | 12.200 |
| APR 26 | 11.615 |
| MAY 26 | 11.510 |
| JUN 26 | 11.565 |
| JUL 26 | 11.695 |
| AUG 26 | 11.785 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.41 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.13 | $2.84 | $3.42 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-29 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
| 2025-07-30 | $3.15 | $2.86 | $3.44 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.06 and resistance at 3.32, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range.
With a predicted price increase of 0.49% for the next day, traders should monitor for short-term opportunities while being cautious of potential volatility due to the bearish technical outlook.
The fundamental balance stands at 8.00 BCFD with a notable increase of +1.90. This suggests a stable production environment, although the overall market sentiment remains neutral.
Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially in the context of fluctuating demand and cooling weather patterns.
With the current weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the short term. The fundamental balance indicates adequate supply, but the risk of price increases remains due to high air conditioning demands.
Consideration should be given to procurement strategies that take into account the potential for price volatility in the coming weeks.
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral overall sentiment with a slight bearish technical outlook. Key drivers include a stable fundamental balance and strong cooling demand across all regions, particularly in the West.
Monitoring the convergence of these factors will be crucial in identifying potential shifts in market dynamics. The bearish technical indicators juxtaposed with a ML price forecast suggests a complex market landscape that may require adaptive strategies.