Total supply decreased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 2.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.34
MA(20): $3.36
MACD: -0.0924
Signal: -0.0559
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 37.92
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 37,520
Avg (20d): 125,679
Ratio: 0.3
%K: 5.99
%D: 4.87
ADX: 14.42
+DI: 15.93
-DI: 28.99
Value: -94.01
Upper: 3.66
Middle: 3.36
Lower: 3.07
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.5 | 101.8 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.17 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 113.1 | 108.4 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.0 | 45.7 | 48.6 | 46.07 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 8.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 104.9 | 107.0 | 103.1 | 100.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.547 EUR/MWh (-0.019). JKM prices decreased to 11.880 USD/MMBtu (-0.050). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.333 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-25
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-25
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-25
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.547 |
| SEP 25 | 11.335 |
| OCT 25 | 11.517 |
| NOV 25 | 11.883 |
| DEC 25 | 12.071 |
| JAN 26 | 12.162 |
| FEB 26 | 12.184 |
| MAR 26 | 12.051 |
| APR 26 | 11.466 |
| MAY 26 | 11.289 |
| JUN 26 | 11.261 |
| JUL 26 | 11.290 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 11.880 |
| OCT 25 | 11.720 |
| NOV 25 | 11.980 |
| DEC 25 | 12.370 |
| JAN 26 | 12.605 |
| FEB 26 | 12.590 |
| MAR 26 | 12.245 |
| APR 26 | 11.635 |
| MAY 26 | 11.545 |
| JUN 26 | 11.605 |
| JUL 26 | 11.730 |
| AUG 26 | 11.830 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-25 | $3.08 | $2.78 | $3.37 |
| 2025-07-26 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $3.39 |
| 2025-07-27 | $3.1 | $2.8 | $3.4 |
| 2025-07-28 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.42 |
| 2025-07-29 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.41 |
Current market conditions suggest a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.06 while resistance is at 3.32. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations, as the ML price forecast indicates a decline of 0.52% with a predicted range between 2.78 and 3.37. The overall market sentiment is confirmed by the recent news articles analyzed, indicating a need for vigilance in short-term trading strategies.
With a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD and a notable increase of +1.90, producers should assess their production planning closely. The news sentiment is predominantly negative, especially concerning natural gas and crude oil, both scoring -0.600. This may impact hedging strategies, as market sentiment could lead to lower prices in the near term. Maintaining flexibility in production and adjusting output according to demand shifts will be critical.
Given the current cooling demand outlook, with CDD: 12.5, consumers can expect potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, especially as the market sentiment remains negative. The fundamental balance indicates a healthy supply, but the bearish sentiment could signal risks in supply reliability. Consumers should consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility while keeping an eye on weather forecasts that could affect demand patterns.
The energy market displays a complex picture, with a bearish sentiment prevailing across multiple indicators. The fundamental balance is robust at 8.00 BCFD, but the technical indicators suggest caution. The weather outlook favors cooling demand, impacting both supply and demand dynamics. Analysts should monitor how these factors interplay, particularly the influence of weather patterns and news sentiment on market shifts, as these will be critical in forecasting future price movements.