Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.43
MACD: -0.0242
Signal: -0.0313
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 44.04
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,636
Avg (20d): 123,568
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 34.79
%D: 62.73
ADX: 10.0
+DI: 19.75
-DI: 25.26
Value: -65.21
Upper: 3.67
Middle: 3.43
Lower: 3.19
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.633 EUR/MWh (-0.085). JKM prices decreased to 12.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.180). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.367 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-21
Front month: SEP 25
As of 2025-07-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.633 |
| SEP 25 | 11.653 |
| OCT 25 | 11.818 |
| NOV 25 | 12.119 |
| DEC 25 | 12.287 |
| JAN 26 | 12.360 |
| FEB 26 | 12.366 |
| MAR 26 | 12.207 |
| APR 26 | 11.605 |
| MAY 26 | 11.377 |
| JUN 26 | 11.340 |
| JUL 26 | 11.394 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 12.080 |
| NOV 25 | 12.285 |
| DEC 25 | 12.620 |
| JAN 26 | 12.795 |
| FEB 26 | 12.775 |
| MAR 26 | 12.410 |
| APR 26 | 11.770 |
| MAY 26 | 11.625 |
| JUN 26 | 11.665 |
| JUL 26 | 11.810 |
| AUG 26 | 11.880 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | $3.35 | $3.06 | $3.64 |
| 2025-07-23 | $3.34 | $3.05 | $3.63 |
| 2025-07-24 | $3.33 | $3.04 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-25 | $3.32 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-26 | $3.35 | $3.06 | $3.64 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.16 while resistance is at 3.35. Traders should be cautious as the bearish news sentiment (-0.333) indicates potential price declines, particularly for natural gas which has seen a sentiment of -0.600. The ML price forecast for the next day shows a slight increase of 0.68%, but volatility could remain high due to the overall bearish outlook and the high cooling demand across regions.
With a fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD (a decrease of -1.70), producers should consider adjusting their production levels to align with the current market dynamics. The negative sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.600) and crude oil (-0.400) may influence hedging strategies. It would be prudent to monitor the cooling demand which is expected to remain high, impacting consumption patterns. Producers might also want to explore strategic hedging to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations given the current market sentiment. With high cooling demand expected, particularly in the Northeast and West regions, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure supply reliability. The fundamental balance indicates a slight tightening in supply, which could lead to price increases in the near term. Consumers may consider short-term hedging options to lock in prices before any upward movements occur.
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment across multiple commodities, particularly natural gas and crude oil. The fundamental balance suggests a tightening scenario, while the high cooling demand may provide some support for prices in the short term. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of geopolitical factors and trade sentiments, as these could further influence market dynamics. The overall outlook remains cautious, and shifts in sentiment could lead to significant market movements.