Total supply increased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 6.1 BCFD
MA(9): $3.41
MA(20): $3.47
MACD: -0.0228
Signal: -0.0384
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 52.0
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,470
Avg (20d): 126,793
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 65.53
%D: 64.81
ADX: 10.04
+DI: 22.67
-DI: 21.1
Value: -34.47
Upper: 3.77
Middle: 3.47
Lower: 3.16
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.5 | 106.2 | 101.7 | 99.87 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.13 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 112.5 | 108.8 | 106.07 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.17 |
| Electric Power Demand | 45.7 | 43.8 | 47.3 | 43.87 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| LNG Exports | 16.5 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 11.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.83 |
| Total Demand | 107.0 | 104.7 | 102.3 | 98.7 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 7.37 |
TTF prices increased to 11.781 EUR/MWh (+0.049). JKM prices remained stable to 13.105 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.324 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-17
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-17
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-17
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.781 |
| SEP 25 | 12.026 |
| OCT 25 | 12.178 |
| NOV 25 | 12.454 |
| DEC 25 | 12.596 |
| JAN 26 | 12.661 |
| FEB 26 | 12.645 |
| MAR 26 | 12.478 |
| APR 26 | 11.824 |
| MAY 26 | 11.594 |
| JUN 26 | 11.548 |
| JUL 26 | 11.569 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.105 |
| SEP 25 | 12.405 |
| OCT 25 | 12.475 |
| NOV 25 | 12.650 |
| DEC 25 | 12.980 |
| JAN 26 | 13.155 |
| FEB 26 | 13.100 |
| MAR 26 | 12.740 |
| APR 26 | 12.045 |
| MAY 26 | 11.900 |
| JUN 26 | 11.925 |
| JUL 26 | 12.040 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-18 | $3.55 | $3.27 | $3.84 |
| 2025-07-19 | $3.54 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.53 | $3.25 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-21 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-22 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
Current market dynamics indicate a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance at 6.10 BCFD, down by 1.70. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.50 while the resistance is at 3.66. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the price forecast suggests a slight increase of 0.27% with a range of 3.27 to 3.84. Monitor cooling demand closely as it could create short-term trading opportunities.
The neutral market sentiment, reflected in the fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD, suggests producers should remain vigilant in their production planning. The current cooling demand, particularly in all regions, may support higher output, but recent headlines indicate potential supply disruptions that could impact operations. Additionally, a favorable sentiment for natural gas (+0.650) may offer opportunities for hedging strategies.
With overall market sentiment remaining neutral, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as cooling demand rises significantly across regions. The weather outlook indicates high cooling demand, which could lead to increased natural gas prices hovering near 2-week highs. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that account for this volatility in supply reliability.
The market is currently exhibiting a neutral sentiment overall, with a fundamental balance of 6.10 BCFD. The strong cooling demand is a significant bullish factor, while the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil (-0.400) highlights ongoing concerns about supply disruptions. Analysts should focus on the interplay between these factors, as shifts in weather patterns and geopolitical developments could lead to notable changes in market dynamics.