Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.38
MA(20): $3.5
MACD: -0.0454
Signal: -0.0447
Days since crossover: 15
Value: 51.81
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,829
Avg (20d): 122,555
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 62.79
%D: 47.62
ADX: 11.11
+DI: 22.11
-DI: 22.95
Value: -37.21
Upper: 3.92
Middle: 3.5
Lower: 3.09
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.947 EUR/MWh (-0.027). JKM prices remained stable to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.168 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-15
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-15
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-15
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.947 |
| SEP 25 | 12.314 |
| OCT 25 | 12.477 |
| NOV 25 | 12.764 |
| DEC 25 | 12.922 |
| JAN 26 | 12.979 |
| FEB 26 | 12.968 |
| MAR 26 | 12.788 |
| APR 26 | 12.097 |
| MAY 26 | 11.858 |
| JUN 26 | 11.798 |
| JUL 26 | 11.838 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.665 |
| OCT 25 | 12.725 |
| NOV 25 | 12.880 |
| DEC 25 | 13.205 |
| JAN 26 | 13.375 |
| FEB 26 | 13.325 |
| MAR 26 | 12.945 |
| APR 26 | 12.240 |
| MAY 26 | 12.105 |
| JUN 26 | 12.090 |
| JUL 26 | 12.215 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-17 | $3.53 | $3.24 | $3.82 |
| 2025-07-18 | $3.54 | $3.25 | $3.83 |
| 2025-07-19 | $3.52 | $3.23 | $3.81 |
| 2025-07-20 | $3.52 | $3.23 | $3.81 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical interpretation with a Fibonacci support level at 3.5 and resistance at 3.66. The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.29%, with a trading range of 3.24 to 3.82. Given the cooling demand across regions, traders should monitor for short-term volatility and consider positioning near the resistance level for potential breakout opportunities.
The fundamental balance shows a decrease to 7.80 BCFD, indicating a slight tightening in supply. The neutral market sentiment, particularly for NATURAL_GAS at +0.700, suggests a favorable environment for pricing, despite ample supply. Producers should consider adjusting production levels and hedging strategies to capitalize on potential price increases driven by weather-related demand shifts in the coming days.
The outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand due to the prevailing weather patterns. While the current market sentiment is stable, consumers should remain vigilant about potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, especially as forecasts predict warmer weather in some regions. It may be prudent to explore procurement strategies that mitigate risks associated with sudden price increases.
The market appears neutral overall, with key drivers including a fundamental balance shift and a positive weather outlook influencing demand. The sentiment analysis highlights a bullish outlook for natural gas, while crude oil sentiment remains bearish. Analysts should focus on how these dynamics might shift in response to geopolitical developments and evolving supply-demand scenarios.