Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.36
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: -0.0713
Signal: -0.0469
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 44.65
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 6,094
Avg (20d): 125,520
Ratio: 0.05
%K: 27.41
%D: 26.11
ADX: 12.2
+DI: 19.58
-DI: 24.08
Value: -72.59
Upper: 3.94
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.07
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices increased to 11.974 EUR/MWh (+0.090). JKM prices decreased to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.141 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-13
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-13
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-13
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.974 |
| SEP 25 | 12.363 |
| OCT 25 | 12.526 |
| NOV 25 | 12.808 |
| DEC 25 | 12.946 |
| JAN 26 | 13.000 |
| FEB 26 | 12.985 |
| MAR 26 | 12.799 |
| APR 26 | 12.107 |
| MAY 26 | 11.848 |
| JUN 26 | 11.783 |
| JUL 26 | 11.827 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.770 |
| OCT 25 | 12.830 |
| NOV 25 | 13.015 |
| DEC 25 | 13.325 |
| JAN 26 | 13.485 |
| FEB 26 | 13.435 |
| MAR 26 | 13.055 |
| APR 26 | 12.310 |
| MAY 26 | 12.135 |
| JUN 26 | 12.135 |
| JUL 26 | 12.255 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | $3.31 | $3.03 | $3.59 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
| 2025-07-14 | $3.33 | $3.05 | $3.61 |
| 2025-07-15 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
| 2025-07-16 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.16, while resistance is at 3.35. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.19%, with a trading range of 3.03 to 3.59. This presents short-term opportunities, but also highlights risks of increased volatility.
The fundamental balance is currently at 7.80 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of 1.60. This indicates a tightening market, which may affect production planning and inventory management. The bearish sentiment in crude oil pricing, particularly due to geopolitical risks and fluctuating demand, suggests that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
With the current market showing bearish sentiment and a fundamental balance of 7.80 BCFD, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. The lack of weather data adds uncertainty to supply reliability, which could impact procurement strategies. Monitoring market sentiment and price forecasts will be crucial for making informed procurement decisions.
The market is currently influenced by bearish factors, particularly in crude oil, where geopolitical developments and demand concerns weigh heavily. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, but the fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply scenario. Analysts should focus on how these dynamics could shift in the coming days, especially with the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend.