Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.37
MA(20): $3.52
MACD: -0.0697
Signal: -0.0408
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 44.65
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 163,043
Avg (20d): 131,880
Ratio: 1.24
%K: 27.41
%D: 19.14
ADX: 12.35
+DI: 19.69
-DI: 25.26
Value: -72.59
Upper: 3.95
Middle: 3.52
Lower: 3.09
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices increased to 11.974 EUR/MWh (+0.090). JKM prices decreased to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (-0.010). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.141 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-12
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-12
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-12
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.974 |
| SEP 25 | 12.363 |
| OCT 25 | 12.526 |
| NOV 25 | 12.808 |
| DEC 25 | 12.946 |
| JAN 26 | 13.000 |
| FEB 26 | 12.985 |
| MAR 26 | 12.799 |
| APR 26 | 12.107 |
| MAY 26 | 11.848 |
| JUN 26 | 11.783 |
| JUL 26 | 11.827 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.770 |
| OCT 25 | 12.830 |
| NOV 25 | 13.015 |
| DEC 25 | 13.325 |
| JAN 26 | 13.485 |
| FEB 26 | 13.435 |
| MAR 26 | 13.055 |
| APR 26 | 12.310 |
| MAY 26 | 12.135 |
| JUN 26 | 12.135 |
| JUL 26 | 12.255 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | $3.31 | $3.03 | $3.59 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
| 2025-07-14 | $3.33 | $3.05 | $3.61 |
| 2025-07-15 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
| 2025-07-16 | $3.32 | $3.04 | $3.6 |
Current market conditions are moderately bearish, with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.16, while resistance is at 3.35. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.19%, with a trading range of 3.03 to 3.59. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as prices approach these levels, looking for short-term opportunities but also being aware of risks associated with the bearish sentiment.
With a fundamental balance of 7.80 BCFD (a decrease of 1.60), producers may need to reassess production planning and inventory strategies. The bearish sentiment in natural gas markets, with a score of -0.600, suggests caution in production levels. Hedging strategies should be considered to mitigate risks from potential price declines, especially with the current market sentiment leaning towards uncertainty.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly for natural gas, which is facing bearish sentiment. The current fundamental balance indicates a decrease, signaling possible supply reliability risks. It's advisable to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage exposure to price volatility, especially as the market sentiment remains neutral.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment in natural gas and a neutral overall sentiment across the energy sector. Key driving factors include a fundamental balance shift and a moderately bearish technical outlook. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and weather forecasts closely, as these could induce shifts in market dynamics, impacting both supply and demand.