Total supply decreased by 0.8 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 7.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.53
MACD: -0.065
Signal: -0.0332
Days since crossover: 12
Value: 45.99
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,507
Avg (20d): 126,744
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 26.13
%D: 15.83
ADX: 12.48
+DI: 19.4
-DI: 26.87
Value: -73.87
Upper: 3.95
Middle: 3.53
Lower: 3.12
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 106.8 | 101.4 | 99.8 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 113.3 | 107.7 | 105.77 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 43.8 | 43.4 | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.57 |
| LNG Exports | 16.0 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.73 |
| Total Demand | 104.7 | 103.9 | 98.0 | 97.3 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 7.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.47 |
TTF prices increased to 11.713 EUR/MWh (+0.036). JKM prices remained stable to 13.115 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.402 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-10
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-10
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-10
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.713 |
| SEP 25 | 12.000 |
| OCT 25 | 12.181 |
| NOV 25 | 12.509 |
| DEC 25 | 12.648 |
| JAN 26 | 12.697 |
| FEB 26 | 12.681 |
| MAR 26 | 12.500 |
| APR 26 | 11.904 |
| MAY 26 | 11.670 |
| JUN 26 | 11.611 |
| JUL 26 | 11.660 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.115 |
| SEP 25 | 12.500 |
| OCT 25 | 12.570 |
| NOV 25 | 12.775 |
| DEC 25 | 13.095 |
| JAN 26 | 13.235 |
| FEB 26 | 13.175 |
| MAR 26 | 12.805 |
| APR 26 | 12.155 |
| MAY 26 | 11.990 |
| JUN 26 | 12.015 |
| JUL 26 | 12.135 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-11 | $3.32 | $3.02 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-12 | $3.31 | $3.01 | $3.61 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.32 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
| 2025-07-14 | $3.34 | $3.04 | $3.63 |
| 2025-07-15 | $3.32 | $3.03 | $3.62 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a Fibonacci support at 3.35 and resistance at 3.5. The downward ML price forecast of -0.56% indicates potential short-term volatility, especially as cooling demand remains high across all regions, which could influence price movements. Traders should monitor the fundamental balance of 7.80 BCFD as a significant factor that may impact trading strategies.
With the overall market sentiment being bearish and a decline in fundamental balance by 1.60 BCFD, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The current hedging strategies may need reassessment given the Fibonacci levels indicating potential price resistance. Additionally, the negative sentiment surrounding natural gas could affect operational decisions and pricing strategies.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment is currently negative. The high cooling demand forecasted, with CDD values across all regions, suggests possible spikes in energy costs. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability and price volatility.
The current market dynamics reveal a strong bearish sentiment driven by a combination of declining fundamental balance and high cooling demand. The negative news sentiment surrounding both crude and natural gas suggests that external factors, including geopolitical tensions, may further influence market behavior. Analysts should closely monitor these indicators for any potential shifts in market outlook that could affect future pricing strategies.